EU Elections

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Coys1882

This is a genuine question as I'm horribly ignorant of these things. Will the rest of the world let that happen? I would be interested to see which banks would be on the hook for that and how many of them are German, English, America, and such. Do they have enough clout to make sure they get their money back?

Its not like these debts are insured, those banks will take huge hits to their paper value, that they'll never recover from.

As it is, the IMF by trying to support the unsupportable is actually screwing up their mandate of using their money to help developming countries. They really shouldn't be pouring money into Greece.

Germany has basically stated that the Greek's have to live up to their promises to get their bailout money. Canada has already said they won't put money into a bailout pot for Europe. They're rapidly running out of countries that can physically prop up these failing European countries. I guess China is lurking there but the Greek's might not like the conditions that are impossed.

[GP_Matt]

I think China should bail them out in exchange for sovereign control of a few Greek islands.

I thought the problem (or one of them) with a Greek default is that they are still running a substantial deficit. If they default today then tomorrow they are still in a position of having to cut spending just to make ends meet. Or are the interest payments are higher than their deficit?

Also, with a default is there any collateral? When a company defaults they are generally forced to liquidate their assets to cover debts. If Greece defaulted would they be forced to sell everything? Where would that stop, crown corporations? buildings? museums? land? historical sites?

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

the problem in my mind with stimulus spending in countries like Greece etc is that it won't work because they're so screwed up and procedurally wrecked that it won't restart their econonomy. Stimulus spending in Canada, and to a minor extend the U.S. and other countries is that they had decent economic fundementals that supported spending to stimulate your economy.

But when your in debt to the point that your annual debt interest servicing outstrips your annual GDP you can't stimulate out of it by aquiring more debt.

Even defaulting and going to your own currency where you start at zero isn't going to help. Your currency is going to be completely valueless outside of your borders. Unless you dramatically drop your cost of labor and business taxation you're not going to get international investment, and you can't borrow because your interest rate is so high that your in the hole before you start.

Austerity hasn't worked because countries like Greece and Spain and others refuse to go whole hog and use Austerity as an opportunity to fix the fundemental cultural problems with your country.

Unless Greece breaks the unions, breaks the pension system and makes it more realistic and hardcore collects on current and past taxation debt, printing your own money and defaulting to zero is going to make little difference.

Greece also needs to cut their ridiculous civil service down by 3/4, there's no reason to have two civil servants for every 10 citizens, which means that even if you cut the civil service in half, your unemployment accelerates to about 20 to 25%, which becomes a unrecoverable employment crisis.

So in confusion. Default reset to zero and unless you gut everything your screwd.

Follow Austerity but at least get money coming into your economy and gut everything which probably destroys your own economy.

The Greek people are actually becoming their own worst enemies but they don't see it, until they do they're f%%ked.

But I believe your a lot smarter then me on this stuff Slava so I'm probably missing something.

No, you're totally correct they are effed 6 ways till Sunday any way you look at it, to be frank they will still be effed even after they realise it, membership in the EU for Greece was like a welfare mum winning the 6/49, it was always going to end this way.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by Slava

that means defaulting, and printing money along with collecting taxes and rebuilding. I'm not even sure how viable that is, but I don't know what else could be done.

Yup, and you can't print/devalue the money while you're locked into the Euro.

[macker]

Originally Posted by GP_Matt

I think China should bail them out in exchange for sovereign control of a few Greek islands.

I thought the problem (or one of them) with a Greek default is that they are still running a substantial deficit. If they default today then tomorrow they are still in a position of having to cut spending just to make ends meet. Or are the interest payments are higher than their deficit?

Also, with a default is there any collateral? When a company defaults they are generally forced to liquidate their assets to cover debts. If Greece defaulted would they be forced to sell everything? Where would that stop, crown corporations? buildings? museums? land? historical sites?

I am just reading "Becomming China's Bit** I am sure this is in the later chapters

[chemgear]

^ And really, in the grand scheme of all of this, Greece is freaking tiny.

Spain and Italy are much much much larger.

[macker]

Don't bother asking India for any help
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/06/bu...ndia.html?_r=1

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by chemgear

^ And really, in the grand scheme of all of this, Greece is freaking tiny.

Spain and Italy are much much much larger.

I think that is why the EU powers are trying so hard to not let Greece default. While they are tiny economically, it's a slippery slope once one accepts defaulting. As they say, misery loves company and other countries might find it easier as long as they aren't 1st. (Not that no country has ever defaulted before, but along this specific storyline anyway...)

[macker]

Originally Posted by chemgear

^ And really, in the grand scheme of all of this, Greece is freaking tiny.

Spain and Italy are much much much larger.

Was watching Berman on BNN today and he thinks ultimately Greece, Spain and Italy are all gone from the EU. "They have to be".

[CaptainCrunch]

The biggest killer for these growing economies in China and India and Pakistan and other nations who are getting the manufacturing contracts or exporting massive amounts of cheap goods is that their workforce is going to demand spending dollars and increased wages and benefits, and when that happens and those pay and benefits start excellerating they're going to lose their compeitive advantages.

Chna's economy will eventually slow down when thier wages go up.

India won't be able to pay people a dollar a day forever.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by macker

Was watching Berman on BNN today and he thinks ultimately Greece, Spain and Italy are all gone from the EU. "They have to be".

They'll form the PU.

[afc wimbledon]

my moneys on the 'FU'

[Coys1882]

What about the other countries in the EU - are they ready to go belly up too? I'm speaking more of Bulgaria, Turkey, Poland and such. If Italy and Spain are in this bad of shape - it seems to me that those countries might be too?

[CaptainCrunch]

Turkey has some big problems that are coming to a head, I'm not sure about the others.

[Itse]

For the most part there isn't really a spending problem. There's a taxation problem.

Example:

If the top 1000 richest Brits (or the top 0.003% if you like) would choose pay off their countrys whole national debt, they would still be as a collective 30£ billion richer than they were three years ago.

The same goes for most western european countries, with non-essential variation in the numbers.

All western countries are vastly richer than they were 20 years ago, basicly all of them have followed the same general line of politics, which has made them able to do less and less every year.

Got to love right wing politics.

[Knalus]

Turkey is not currently an EU member, is it? At least not yet.

This may make it nearly impossible for them to actually become an EU member.

[Flames Fan, Ph.D.]

Originally Posted by Knalus

Turkey is not currently an EU member, is it? At least not yet.

This may make it nearly impossible for them to actually become an EU member.

They're not in the EU.

Nor will they ever be, and it's a wise move for them not to be. Turkey has a strong economy right now and a very young working class.

Captain is way off base to suggest that Turkey is effed. They're actually in a pretty strong position.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Flames Fan, Ph.D.

They're not in the EU.

Nor will they ever be, and it's a wise move for them not to be. Turkey has a strong economy right now and a very young working class.

Captain is way off base to suggest that Turkey is effed. They're actually in a pretty strong position.

Totally busted on that one, I was going off of a news report that I had heard a while that mentioned that Turkey had some fairly significant debt problems that still needed to be addressed.

I'm completely freaking wrong on that one.

[Flames Fan, Ph.D.]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I don't know if anyone has the guts to do what has to be done. Most of the Austerity is around cutting the civil service, hacking the bloated pensions and making people work longer.

These are things that I wouldn't even call Austerity, I think they have to be called realistic things that have to done no matter how much people whine and cry about it.

I was reading that two out of 10 people work for the government, if those figures are right that a big problem that they really need to rectify no matter what the cost.

They have a severe tax collection problem I would make sure that I'm tearing after that and collecting for at least the last 10 years.

I would push the retirement age to 67, and I would increase pension deductions on paychecks.

Basically they're a stupidly run banana republic populated by spoiled brats who have had it way beyond good for too long.

So yes, I would continue to push to get spending under control and live up to the bailout conditions.

If Greece defaults on their loans, they are also going to be forced to default on pension payouts and paychecks to their bloated civil services and retirees and other ridiculous payouts.

If they do default they're basically only going to get international loans if they find a international money mart that challenges credit card style interest.

If they do establish their own currency, it will be completely valuless on the international stage which means that the required goods that they bring in that they don't produce will cost a fortune and be unaffordable.

As much as its romantic to say forget Asterity lets stimulate and spend ourselves out of this hole, the issue isn't stimulating their economy anymore, its gutting generations of bad management and terrible policies that have spoiled their own people.

Now on the second day in office after my assasination, what happens.


I think Slava the other question is you wake up this morning in the German Chancellers body, after you spend several hours exploring your new found boobs, what do you do?

I guess I don't understand what measures you want them to take? What would be "austerity" in your eyes, specifically?

Also, pushing the retirement age to 67 won't do anything. Their problem is debt and unemployment.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Itse

For the most part there isn't really a spending problem. There's a taxation problem.

Example:

If the top 1000 richest Brits (or the top 0.003% if you like) would choose pay off their countrys whole national debt, they would still be as a collective 30£ billion richer than they were three years ago.

The same goes for most western european countries, with non-essential variation in the numbers.

All western countries are vastly richer than they were 20 years ago, basicly all of them have followed the same general line of politics, which has made them able to do less and less every year.

Got to love right wing politics.

I would disagree with you about it being simply a taxation problem.

It is a spending, employment and taxation problem.

They wouldn't be anywhere near this situation if they had forced people to pay their taxes.