I recall watching Backlund about four years ago and you would see flashes of brilliance intermingled with some good games, but then inconsistency as well, but I always thought with some consistency and a higher level of confidence he had great potential...which the Flames have seen more of the last two years as his confidence has grown.
It is the same if not more so with Bennett - the guy has skills that are amazing and just needs to play with some more consistency and confidence. I have no doubt this will come and Bennett will be a future star on this team.
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Unlikely to be traded: Versteeg, Smith, Brouwer, Kulak, Lazar
Left overs: Stajan, Lack, Bartkowski, F. Hamilton
There is no way anyone in the first three groups will be moved as we are trying to win now and we either currently need or are stuck (Brouwer) with these players.
Most likely to be moved:
- Bartkowski - kids on the farm outplay him and he is pushed to 8th on depth chart and another team has interest
- Lack - one of the younger goalies pushes his way onto the team before the trade deadline so Flames make room
- Stajan - as a courtesy the Flames trade him to a place where he can get more playing time as he is most likely going to sit out a number of games as a healthy scratch this season
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Prospects count? If so then Shinkaruk or Wotherspoon. If not then no one.
If I had to pick someone I'd say Wotherspoon makes the team out of camp as #7 D-man and is then packaged at the deadline for a veteran bottom pairing defenseman known for "Leadership".
I think Backlund would ask for close to Bergeron/Kesler money.
The discussion should be, "Is he a Bergeron/Kesler?" If he is, then why shouldn't he get what they get? If he isn't, then... well... why isn't he?
Oh my
Bergeron not only is considered one of the best 2 way forwards he's won the Selke 4 times and is a career .75 PPG player
Kesler as much as I can't stand him also won the Selke and has be nominated 3 times, he "only" puts up .62 PPG but in his prime years he had 40+ goals and 70+ points
Backlund has a career high of 53 points and has no business to be in the conversation with these 2
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The thing is Backlund is on another level than any of those guys you listed when it comes to two way hockey. Look at his zone starts. Always starts in the D zone, yet still put up 53 points. If his line got the zone starts that the Monahan line gets he would put up many more points.
He was the MVP of the Flames last year. The most important player for this team. 6x6 seems about right to me.
Alright that is a valid point.
Backlund had 57 points at 5v5 over the last two seasons with only 26% of his faceoffs being in the offensive zone.
Of guys who start 20-30% of their shifts in the d-zone that ranked 6th overall - so pretty good.
Direct comparables who aren't on a bridge/RFA/ELC are, that had similar point totals, and only had 20-30% o-zone starts:
So a bit of a range in the contracts of these guys: $4.5M - $6.9M.
The guys who got contracts in the higher end (Kesler, Koivu) both had seasons over 70 points at the time of their contracts so not directly comparable.
Huberdeau/Staal aren't the best comparables since they signed long term deals coming out of their ELC - so some RFA years in there and teams probably projected some offensive improvement.
Dubinsky might be the best comparable at $5.85M. Would have been UFA when he signed the contract and coming off a 50 point season, and then a pro-rated 63 point season (injury).
Kadri, & Palmieri,are probably what the Flames will try to use as comparables - especially Kadri since they seem to be fans of his play.
Kadri had 1 year left until UFA and was coming off of seasons of 50/39/45 points.
Palmieri had 1 year left until UFA and was coming off seasons of 29 points (41 prorated to full season) and 57 points when he signed.
So in the end it will probably be between $5.0 to $6.0 for the AAV, but $6.0 feels on the higher end of the spectrum to me.
Two guys that signed this off-season that weren't quite as productive as Backlund.
The Flames, right now, have a remarkably boring roster in terms of projecting semi-realistic non-blockbuster trades.
Given that, I would have to say Bartkowski is the most likely candidate and probably for future considerations i.e., a favour to Bartkowki more than anything.
__________________ "I think the eye test is still good, but analytics can sure give you confirmation: what you see...is that what you really believe?" Scotty Bowman, 0 NHL games played
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Kesler as much as I can't stand him also won the Selke and has be nominated 3 times, he "only" puts up .62 PPG but in his prime years he had 40+ goals and 70+ points
Backlund has a career high of 53 points and has no business to be in the conversation with these 2
I buy that with regards to Bergeron but Kesler really isn't that far ahead of Backlund in terms of performance (unless you measure dirtbaggery as a positive performance metric in which case Kesler is the greatest player of all time).
Regardless. The best comparable you can make for Backlund is probably Frans Nielsen... he got 5.25x6 from Detroit at 32 years of age last offseason. That was a UFA contract and not a extension so I figure for Backlund we could get him for about the same (maybe a year less if he's feeling generous).
I buy that with regards to Bergeron but Kesler really isn't that far ahead of Backlund in terms of performance (unless you measure dirtbaggery as a positive performance metric in which case Kesler is the greatest player of all time).
Regardless. The best comparable you can make for Backlund is probably Frans Nielsen... he got 5.25x6 from Detroit at 32 years of age last offseason. That was a UFA contract and not a extension so I figure for Backlund we could get him for about the same (maybe a year less if he's feeling generous).
That is the maximum I would pay him. Anything higher and I think we are better off dealing him.
Bergeron not only is considered one of the best 2 way forwards he's won the Selke 4 times and is a career .75 PPG player
Kesler as much as I can't stand him also won the Selke and has be nominated 3 times, he "only" puts up .62 PPG but in his prime years he had 40+ goals and 70+ points
Backlund has a career high of 53 points and has no business to be in the conversation with these 2
Bergeron is absolutely the best two way forward in hockey, but in 2017 Kesler and Backlund are pretty comparable. Backlund is in that upper tier of two way centers now.
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Ok, first off calling Backlund the Flames MVP is crazy. He had a great year last season but lets not get crazy here. Gio, Brodie, Hamilton, Gaudreau, and Monahan are more valuable to the franchise right now and Bennett and Tkachuk will be in the near future. Second off 750K in a cap world were you have other pieces to keep and over a 6 year term that is 4.5M. In two years Hamonic and Brodie need new deals. If Bennett is bridged for two years he will as well. The next year Hamilton is up. I would argue those guys are more important to retain than Backlund given Jankowski's progress into what should be a more than competent 3rd line C. So if Backlund wants 6M a year than the most you give him is 3 years and even that would be stretching it. I would say if he wants 6 and he is a must sign than 2 years is ideal. I can't see it, he will want more term. If it all works out that way then trading him while his value is at peak value is really the best option for this team.
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Bergeron is absolutely the best two way forward in hockey, but in 2017 Kesler and Backlund are pretty comparable. Backlund is in that upper tier of two way centers now.
I can't think of a single player I hate more than Kesler, that being said he is significantly better offensively than Backlund and just as good if not better defensively as well. Hate the antics and he is a d-bag but it is what it is.
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Ok, first off calling Backlund the Flames MVP is crazy. He had a great year last season but lets not get crazy here. Gio, Brodie, Hamilton, Gaudreau, and Monahan are more valuable to the franchise right now and Bennett and Tkachuk will be in the near future. Second off 750K in a cap world were you have other pieces to keep and over a 6 year term that is 4.5M. In two years Hamonic and Brodie need new deals. If Bennett is bridged for two years he will as well. The next year Hamilton is up. I would argue those guys are more important to retain than Backlund given Jankowski's progress into what should be a more than competent 3rd line C. So if Backlund wants 6M a year than the most you give him is 3 years and even that would be stretching it. I would say if he wants 6 and he is a must sign than 2 years is ideal. I can't see it, he will want more term. If it all works out that way then trading him while his value is at peak value is really the best option for this team.
More valuable to the franchise doesn't mean being a current better player in the league. Duchene, Landeskog, ROR (who got traded too), EJ, Barrie, Varlamov and MacKinnon were more valuable to the Avs than Statsny was, doesn't mean that they could function without what he brought to the team.
Backlund is our best center right now, bar none. Easily. No debate. That doesn't mean he's the more valuable asset, or that he will be better in two years, but as of today, he definitely is. Monahan has a better shot than Backlund... and not much else. Monahan outscored Backlund by a measly five points, all while getting butter soft ozone deployment, getting to ride shotgun to an arguable top 5 offensive dynamo in the league and while getting copious amounts of time on the top powerplay unit.
And Backlund is only 28 years of age, he still has a lot of great hockey left inside of him, and seems to be just hitting his stride as a player. Backlund has paid his dues on and off the ice and definitely is deserving of a payday himself. Now if he's demanding 6.5M+, then it would be wise to cut him loose and flip him for more assets, but if he's willing to sign anywhere between 5M - 5.75M then Tre should be sprinting to his printer.
There should be other ways to free up salary than to trade the recently voted 4th best defensive forward in the league like by finding ways to get rid of Michael Stone who is making 3.5M to play on the bottom pairing or by doing anything in your power to rid yourself of Troy ####ing Brouwer, who is not even a fraction of the player Backlund is, while being paid 4.5M to point his finger around in the dressing room, and to skate around in circles for 30 seconds per shift.
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I can't think of a single player I hate more than Kesler, that being said he is significantly better offensively than Backlund and just as good if not better defensively as well. Hate the antics and he is a d-bag but it is what it is.
I don't see a trade involving a roster player as very likely. The one that I think is most likely is that Brouwer gets some motivation from getting passed up for a UFA in the expansion draft, and turns things around enough that Treliving can get a 3rd or an expiring contract for him at the deadline.
