WCQF: Winnipeg Jets [CEN2] vs Colorado Avalanche [CEN3] (Avs win in 5)

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Zary's-Mustache

Even if he does come back...who cares? He has missed 2 years. Not like this is some sort of cap circumvention plan the Avs have been planning for 2 years so they can go out and get superstar Mittlestadt

Whether they planned it or not is irrelevant, the fact they can ice a more expensive roster in the playoffs compared to their opponent is. That is why the league needs to take a hard stance on it in the next CBA. It makes a huge difference and we have seen the results by who has won the Cup by exploiting the loophole. I don't bet money on games but if I was to bet on who wins the Cup this year I would put it on a Vegas repeat.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

I've been trying to confirm a couple theories I have to see if evaluating how a team does from game 52-72 is a better measure for likelihood to succeed in the playoffs than how they do in the last 10 games.

Every team is unique, but I do think the this team is hot going into the playoffs does not indicate success. This series is very much that as Colorado was playing well until this late swoon.

Can you share the results when you're finished? I'd love to see.

[Zary's-Mustache]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Whether they planned it or not is irrelevant, the fact they can ice a more expensive roster in the playoffs compared to their opponent is. That is why the league needs to take a hard stance on it in the next CBA. It makes a huge difference and we have seen the results by who has won the Cup by exploiting the loophole. I don't bet money on games but if I was to bet on who wins the Cup this year I would put it on a Vegas repeat.

Then say it like that. The way you make it sound with your "I told you so's" makes you sounds like a conspiracy theorist and that these teams are purposely hiding players until playoffs.

The truth is these players are just playing injured because its playoffs and they wouldn't be playing in meaningless regular season games.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Whether they planned it or not is irrelevant, the fact they can ice a more expensive roster in the playoffs compared to their opponent is.

Fourteen teams are over the cap and using LTIR at the moment. Four of those are not even making the playoffs. Some of the players on LTIR, contrary to your belief, aren't going to be magically able to play in game 1. This isn't a conspiracy to cheat the system.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Fourteen teams are over the cap and using LTIR at the moment. Four of those are not even making the playoffs. Some of the players on LTIR, contrary to your belief, aren't going to be magically able to play in game 1. This isn't a conspiracy to cheat the system.

Ok, how many of those teams are adding a huge impact player when the playoffs start? Why are players like Kucherov and Stone suddenly well enough to play game 1 but not a week before playoffs start when there is no cap space to activate them? And do you really think it is fair that when everybody returns for Vegas and they are icing a roster over $100M, that is not an unfair advantage? If you don't think what TB did with Kucherov and Vegas did with Stone was not an intentional way to take advantage of a loophole in LTIR I have some tropical beachfront property to sell you in Greenland.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Go Avs.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Ok, how many of those teams are adding a huge impact player when the playoffs start?

One that I know of.

Why are players like Kucherov and Stone suddenly well enough to play game 1 but not a week before playoffs start when there is no cap space to activate them?

Many people have explained this to you before. I'm not going through it again.

And do you really think it is fair that when everybody returns for Vegas and they are icing a roster over $100M,

$92,239,581, but don't let that stop you.

that is not an unfair advantage?

Fourteen teams are doing it. Four of them are missing the playoffs. Some advantage.

If you don't think what TB did with Kucherov and Vegas did with Stone was not an intentional way to take advantage of a loophole in LTIR I have some tropical beachfront property to sell you in Greenland.

It's a loophole that 10 playoff teams are taking advantage of to a greater or lesser degree. It's not a conspiracy to reward one particular team.

People have pointed out to you that Landeskog is not practising with the team, not even in a non-contact jersey. Yet you are absolutely certain that this man, who hasn't played a hockey game in two years, is magically going to be 100% in game 1 of the playoffs, and that it is all a deep plot to exploit LTIR for unfair advantage.

Like, right, you're going to sit out one of your three best players for two solid years just so he won't count against the cap when the playoffs start?

Let me guess. They wangled all this just so they could sign the mighty Ross Colton last summer?

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

One that I know of.



Many people have explained this to you before. I'm not going through it again.



$92,239,581, but don't let that stop you.



Fourteen teams are doing it. Four of them are missing the playoffs. Some advantage.



It's a loophole that 10 playoff teams are taking advantage of to a greater or lesser degree. It's not a conspiracy to reward one particular team.

People have pointed out to you that Landeskog is not practising with the team, not even in a non-contact jersey. Yet you are absolutely certain that this man, who hasn't played a hockey game in two years, is magically going to be 100% in game 1 of the playoffs, and that it is all a deep plot to exploit LTIR for unfair advantage.

Like, right, you're going to sit out one of your three best players for two solid years just so he won't count against the cap when the playoffs start?

Let me guess. They wangled all this just so they could sign the mighty Ross Colton last summer?

It is really ridiculous the spin you put on what I said. I mean I don't even know what the hell you are talking about here. I never said the Avs kept Landeskog out for two years for cap reasons, that is just something ridiculous you made up. You dodged the question about keeping players out even if they could return because you have no actual rebuttal. You clearly think it is ok for teams to be able to have millions of dollars worth of extra star players suddenly available for the playoffs and think that is fair, I disagree. I think the league should fix it so every team has a cap compliant roster in the post season so we have fair play, you want to see the same big money franchises exploit a loophole to get an unfair advantage. We can agree to disagree.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

It is really ridiculous the spin you put on what I said. I mean I don't even know what the hell you are talking about here. I never said the Avs kept Landeskog out for two years for cap reasons, that is just something ridiculous you made up.

You claimed that he is perfectly healthy and will play in game 1, and that this is being done solely to dodge the cap.

You dodged the question about keeping players out even if they could return because you have no actual rebuttal.

It's been rebutted over and over by me and by others. You get no points for restarting an argument that you already lost years ago.

You clearly think it is ok for teams to be able to have millions of dollars worth of extra star players suddenly available for the playoffs and think that is fair, I disagree.

No, I don't think it's fair, but those are the rules.

I think the league should fix it so every team has a cap compliant roster in the post season so we have fair play,

So do I, but the league has not done that and the rules are what they are.

you want to see the same big money franchises exploit a loophole to get an unfair advantage. We can agree to disagree.

It isn't just ‘the same big money franchises’. It's half the league.

This problem was never going to be addressed while the cap was flat, because nearly every competitive team needed the LTIR loophole just to keep competing. Now it's not going to be addressed until the next CBA.

Now, let's get back to the original point: Do you seriously believe that Landeskog is ready to play in game 1 of the playoffs? Because you have claimed exactly that.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

You claimed that he is perfectly healthy and will play in game 1, and that this is being done solely to dodge the cap.



It's been rebutted over and over by me and by others. You get no points for restarting an argument that you already lost years ago.



No, I don't think it's fair, but those are the rules.



So do I, but the league has not done that and the rules are what they are.



It isn't just ‘the same big money franchises’. It's half the league.

This problem was never going to be addressed while the cap was flat, because nearly every competitive team needed the LTIR loophole just to keep competing. Now it's not going to be addressed until the next CBA.

Now, let's get back to the original point: Do you seriously believe that Landeskog is ready to play in game 1 of the playoffs? Because you have claimed exactly that.

Again, you are making stuff up. Go show me where I claimed Landeskog will be 100% healthy for game 1? As I replied to T99 he could be right that Landeskog will not be playing in game 1 or might not play at all. I asserted that teams keep how far along players actually are and that is just common knowledge. If you have to make stuff up to try and win a debate you have clearly lost.

[activeStick]

Inserting Landeskog into the lineup with a serious injury after 2 years off the ice isn't happening unless the Avs want to sewer their chances. Landeskog almost surely is pushing to play because he's a hockey player and it's the playoffs, but he's not going to help them.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Again, you are making stuff up. Go show me where I claimed Landeskog will be 100% healthy for game 1? As I replied to T99 he could be right that Landeskog will not be playing in game 1 or might not play at all. I asserted that teams keep how far along players actually are and that is just common knowledge. If you have to make stuff up to try and win a debate you have clearly lost.

You might not have said he's 100% healthy...but you (or maybe somebody else) has been arguing that they are keeping players that could play in the regular season out of games to avoid the cap, and that they will play game 1.

And last year for Mark Stone I think that was the case, and was 100% BS that his chronic back injury was too bad to play game 82 but not serious enough to play in the playoffs. (Although last year the Knights didn't take advantage of it to nearly the same extent as this year and the dressed roster for much of the playoffs was actually under the cap).

But I do think it's different this year.

I still think it's unlikely Landeskog plays game 1 if at all in the playoffs. He hasn't been a full participant in practice, hasn't been cleared for contact (To my knowledge), and still looks to be skating pretty gingerly from the videos I've seen. Could be just playoff posturing but they said yesterday that he wasn't close to returning yet still https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/...turn-not-close

Now if he plays game 1 then I will 100% admit I'm wrong, but I honestly would be very surprised if that is the case.

In Stone's case I think it's the same thing this year too. Stone is skating but not yet cleared for contact with his injury. His injury return timeline always lined up with the start / middle of round 1, and similar injuries in the past to players had similar return time frames.

It was honestly a combination of sheer luck, and convenient timing that his injury occured when it did that it allowed the Knights to completely take advantage of the loophole to add Hanifin and Hertl.

He might return for game 1...but in his case it would actually be returning from his injury early to play in the playoffs than it would be holding a healthy player out to finish the regular season based on similar recovery timelines for his injury.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

I just don't think Landeskog will make the difference regardless. The Avs are just better. If Winnipeg wins it will be because of a series that has Hellebuyck as the early Conn Smythe favourite.

[Zary's-Mustache]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

I just don't think Landeskog will make the difference regardless. The Avs are just better. If Winnipeg wins it will be because of a series that has Hellebuyck as the early Conn Smythe favourite.

As much as I dislike the Jets and their fans don't know how you can say the Avs are "just better"

Jets have more points, a better goal differential and a much better defensive system which usually does well in the playoffs. They also have 4 more regulation wins than the Avs. Far from better.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Zary's-Mustache

As much as I dislike the Jets and their fans don't know how you can say the Avs are "just better"

Jets have more points, a better goal differential and a much better defensive system which usually does well in the playoffs. They also have 4 more regulation wins than the Avs. Far from better.

I think the analysis in support of the Avs is just going down the lineup, they are better at 1C, 1W and 1D. Mackinnon, Rantanen and Makar are just deadly. Scheifele, Connor and Morrisey are good but not as good.

Next level - much more even but still in Avs favour. Mittelstadt and Monahan are both performing well. Nichushkin maybe edges Ehlers. Towes edges whichever Winnipeg D you care to call their 2D.

After that though it gets interesting. Drouin has had a good year. But the Jets have Toffoli. The Jets have a deep bottom 6 and lower D corps. Avs are weaker at the bottom, especially if Girard stays out. And the Jets have a clear goalie advantage.

But it's just hard to bet against Mackinnon, Rantanen, Makar and Nichushkin.

[Hi-Psi]

Avs in 6. When the Avs come to play, they're legit.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I think the analysis in support of the Avs is just going down the lineup, they are better at 1C, 1W and 1D. Mackinnon, Rantanen and Makar are just deadly. Scheifele, Connor and Morrisey are good but not as good.

Next level - much more even but still in Avs favour. Mittelstadt and Monahan are both performing well. Nichushkin maybe edges Ehlers. Towes edges whichever Winnipeg D you care to call their 2D.

After that though it gets interesting. Drouin has had a good year. But the Jets have Toffoli. The Jets have a deep bottom 6 and lower D corps. Avs are weaker at the bottom, especially if Girard stays out. And the Jets have a clear goalie advantage.

But it's just hard to bet against Mackinnon, Rantanen, Makar and Nichushkin.

It's high end talent vs depth and goaltending...will be an interesting series.

But in close games I trust Mackinnon / Makar more as gamebreakers than anybody on the Jets...including Hellebuyck.

The issue though is can Georgiev / Annunen keep the games close enough so that the gamebreakers can help win those close games.

[dissentowner]

I can't pick a team here, too close.

[Calgary4LIfe]

I am picking the Avs. They have learned how to win. Highly questionable in net which is their obvious weakness, especially when you look at who the Jets have in net. However, I still think the Avs squeeze this one out in 7.

[EVERLAST]

Jets are in tough. I hate to say it but the league doesn't want the Winnipeg Jets to win. I say Mandates will make it damn hard on the Jets

They'll have to kick the door down and convincingly blow the avs out with NO help from officiating.

I'm not a Jets fan but I want them to do well More because of the roster and to me they are the underdog ....I love that role.

Jets in 6 ....if they stay healthy