There are too many unknowns to peg Backlunds value.
If he wants to retire a Flames or if the Flames are in the hunt he isn't moved at all. Otherwise it comes down to his performance and his flexibility on destination. Plus, the deadline is always variable depending on the number of sellers.
Age isn't relevant on a rental though. Who cares if he is 50 if he is playing well, or 25 if he isn't? Its a short term deal for a playoff run. The market, his performance, and the number of teams on his list will determine the value.
Assuming he is playing well i could certainly see a first for a defensive center. These guys make huge impacts in the playoffs.
A 30+ forward is not comparable to a 37. RoR was 31 when dealt to the Leafs and his numbers have always been better than Backlund. The season before he was traded his totals were more than Backlund’s career high. He also has the playoff performer and conn smythe pedigree on his resume.
There is no comparable for a 37 year old middle 6 center to acquire a 1st round pick in a deadline deal. 2nd is doable if Backs has another strong season.
ROR had 19 points when he was traded to Toronto, and was -27. He was traded to be a 3C. And his metrics were nowhere near Backlund's.
So no real comparables? Backlund is the second oldest of the list there and none of those guys return a first in a trade today. Backs at 37 is not likely to get a 1st in the return.
Paul Gaustad got a 1st round pick
Andrew Ladd got a 1st in 2016
28-point scorer Tomas Tatar got a 1st
25 points in 57 games Ryan Hartman got a 1st
Jason Zucker, who only topped 6o points once, got a 1st
Nick Foligno had 16 points in 42 games and got a 1st
David Savard had 6 points in 40 games and got a 1st
14 points in 56 games Tanner Jeannot got multiple picks, including a 1st.
Age is irrelevant at the deadline. If he's playing strong defensive hockey and chipping in offensively, people will want him.
This is what I think as well. It is crazy to me that he has good advanced stats.
He looked awful last year compared to his usual level. I really don't think there is any world we get a 1st for him.
Instead of thinking the stats are crazy does it not cause you to question your own subjective eye test?
I do agree he is unlikely to get a first on a trade
The Backs line was heavily depended upon for D zone starts and that in of itself stymied their offense production.
It was certainly a direct result of sheltering the kids and moving towards a younger deployment.
I mean over all the entire roster couldn't put the puck in the net but the Backlund line really suffered.
I like Backlund. He's been a trooper for the Flames since the Iggy era. But he is definitely getting long in the tooth and is already missing a step. I doubt they trade the captain barring a disastrous season and helping him find a place to chase a championship. But it is definitely time to bump him down a slot if one of the younger centers can steal his....3rd line center spot. Maybe numerically designating line numbers isn't really in the flames wheelhouse right now as they polish up their retool. Maybe Backs line is the 2nd line? I don't know. But he's definitely getting to the point where 4th line d zone stalwart will be come his speciality.
To me his flames tenure ends somewhere in the middle of Conny and Yelle. Not stats wise but how it ends. Just one day early in the season the skates get hung up and he moves into a player dev position.
__________________ "Everybody's so desperate to look smart that nobody is having fun anymore" -Jackie Redmond
Take what you think is a possible but perhaps optimistic return and discount it by 20% for what we will realistically get IMO to save from disappointment.
We haven't been great at the deadlines. Id be happy with a 2nd.
Paraphrasing Elliotte from his 32 thoughts pod, Backlund wants to play after this season, he wants to be a lifelong Flame, and he wants to play in the new building
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Paraphrasing Elliotte from his 32 thoughts pod, Backlund wants to play after this season, he wants to be a lifelong Flame, and he wants to play in the new building
Yeah, I've had that feeling since he signed his last deal. That was basically a decision for him between trying to chase the Cup or be a lifelong Flame, and he chose the latter.
Of course, people can always change their minds.
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Paul Gaustad got a 1st round pick
Andrew Ladd got a 1st in 2016
28-point scorer Tomas Tatar got a 1st
25 points in 57 games Ryan Hartman got a 1st
Jason Zucker, who only topped 6o points once, got a 1st
Nick Foligno had 16 points in 42 games and got a 1st
David Savard had 6 points in 40 games and got a 1st
14 points in 56 games Tanner Jeannot got multiple picks, including a 1st.
Age is irrelevant at the deadline. If he's playing strong defensive hockey and chipping in offensively, people will want him.
Yet we cannot find a single example of a 35+ player getting a 1st.
Conroy did not get a 1st for Tanev, he didn’t get a 2nd for Zadorov. I just do not see any scenario where the Flames are getting a 1st for Backlund unless they are kicking in a 2nd or high prospect along with Backs and/or taking a brutal contract in return.
No way we see Backlund for a 1st at any point in the rest of his career. That is okay we need to have more realistic expectations.
Every time I think of a cagey veteran bottom 6 player past their prime getting traded for a decent return, I think of Martin Erat for 1st round prospect Filip Forsberg. The Caps really wanted veteran leadership for the playoffs, and like Backlund, Erat had the reputation of being a great leader that could rally the troops.
But I looked back and realized that Erat was actually only 32 at the time and there is a big difference between 32 and 37. I think we would be really lucky to get anything but a mid-round pick IMO and trading him would be more of a favour to Backlund just to try to get him a Cup.
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"A pessimist thinks things can't get any worse. An optimist knows they can."
Paraphrasing Elliotte from his 32 thoughts pod, Backlund wants to play after this season, he wants to be a lifelong Flame, and he wants to play in the new building
The “We’ll never get a first” crowd is about to become the “we coulda got a first!” crowd.
Yeah, I've had that feeling since he signed his last deal. That was basically a decision for him between trying to chase the Cup or be a lifelong Flame, and he chose the latter.
Of course, people can always change their minds.
He could go chase and then come back in the summer.
Instead of thinking the stats are crazy does it not cause you to question your own subjective eye test?
I do agree he is unlikely to get a first on a trade
Not really, no. There were also a couple other people in this same thread who said he looked awful last year as well, despite the advanced stats.
The stats only show so much. Some players simply get graded higher or lower because of their play style.
Instead of thinking the stats are crazy does it not cause you to question your own subjective eye test?
I do agree he is unlikely to get a first on a trade
No because stats don't tell the whole story. Was Andersson so individually bad in his own zone that he was -38? Like I said, I have been rewatching games this summer and there were more times Backlund wasn't in proper position then I have ever seen with him before.
