Russia invades Ukraine

[SebC]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

Putin to draft Russian farmers into the RuAF. We're in for even worse food shortages and prices coming year.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ys-2022-09-27/

Given the effectiveness of Ukrainian farmers at capturing tanks, it's hard to fault him for that.

[Locke]

I'm relatively certain that anytime there is a genuine fear of being drafted there have been exoduses.

[Cheese]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Other than the 30-40K Americans who left the US to avoid the Vietnam War draft.

yes, comments in the thread discuss this, it is still nowhere close to the numbers and timeline here.
Mark Hertlings thread also discusses this above.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

I don’t think it’s unreasonable to feel bad for people being forced to die in a senseless war because they didn’t have the means to flee their country before being conscripted.

If they have the means now, they likely had the means before. It's not like it has gotten cheaper or easier.

I agree though, of course there is nothing wrong with feeling sorry for them now, assuming they are not Z-men. It's human nature for people to bury their heads in the sand until something directly affects them. They shouldn't be ashamed and I don't think it's appropriate to try and high-road them.

I just hope this is a real eye opener for Russians in general. When they were mounting their army around Ukraine, there was a lot of denial that Russia was going to invade. After they invaded, there was a lot of denial about the losses. There was a lot of denial about Putin starting conscription because he said he wouldn't. God, I hope this is the last straw for anyone in Russia thinking Putin ever tells the truth and just dismissing the Western media, because so far, the Western media has been right on pretty much everything.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

If they have the means now, they likely had the means before. It's not like it has gotten cheaper or easier.

I agree though, of course there is nothing wrong with feeling sorry for them now, assuming they are not Z-men. It's human nature for people to bury their heads in the sand until something directly affects them. They shouldn't be ashamed and I don't think it's appropriate to try and high-road them.

I just hope this is a real eye opener for Russians in general. When they were mounting their army around Ukraine, there was a lot of denial that Russia was going to invade. After they invaded, there was a lot of denial about the losses. There was a lot of denial about Putin starting conscription because he said he wouldn't. God, I hope this is the last straw for anyone in Russia thinking Putin ever tells the truth and just dismissing the Western media, because so far, the Western media has been right on pretty much everything.

Yeah, but what about the US bio labs all over Ukraine where uber deadly COVID was manufactured and released into the world? But at the same time COVID is actually not that deadly, in fact it's a hoax? Zelenskyy is a puppet and Putin is saving the civilization from the New World Order. Don't believe the media, do your research.

[Cheese]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1574806736573276166

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Why would Russia go through the trouble of destroying something that only benefits them? If they don't want to ship gas to Germany, they can just turn it off on their end. They wouldn't need to actually destroy the pipeline.

With no direct pipeline, they can't hold it over Germany's head anymore. It limits Russian influence in the region even further.

Russia needs Germany to suffer, so the populace changes their mind about high energy prices vs supporting Ukraine, but without Russia to blame. A rupture can be fixed and gas flows resumed (and it's important it takes a while). Russia can't just turn it off, because the German citizens could just rely on the fact that he's not a reliable partner. Blow up the line and Germany gets forced to see what happens over the next month when gas prices get completely unaffordable (as if they weren't already). It's a "see what would happen if we turned it off?" strategy

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Russia needs Germany to suffer, so the populace changes their mind about high energy prices vs supporting Ukraine, but without Russia to blame. A rupture can be fixed and gas flows resumed (and it's important it takes a while). Russia can't just turn it off, because the German citizens could just rely on the fact that he's not a reliable partner. Blow up the line and Germany gets forced to see what happens over the next month when gas prices get completely unaffordable (as if they weren't already). It's a "see what would happen if we turned it off?" strategy

It still doesn't add up to me. Russia gas can and will still get to Germany. It will just have to continue through the middle man (Poland or Ukraine). Removing the pipeline in the sea just makes Germany more susceptible to Polish and Ukrainian pressure and less malleable to Russia. I really don't think Russia wants to stop sending gas directly to Germany. They like having the revenue and influence that comes with it.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

U.S. sabotage is just ridiculous. They would not jeopardize NATO leadership at the moment when the Russians are floundering and unraveling. Handicapping Germany does not mobilize the Germans to take a more central military aid role; it would do quite the opposite as they would pivot towards economic stability heading into the winter.

I think it's Occam's Razor here, and if not Russia directly, a proxy supporter they can throw under the bus.

No one is saying US. US has no real interest in stopping someone from doing this, but they're also not a party that has a direct interest in the pipeline one way or the other. They opposed the pipelines because it helps Russia, but that's secondary motivation, not a direct one.

Occam's razor does not point to Russia. Putin said only three weeks ago that they could finish the Nord Stream 2 pipeline anytime they wanted to, which tells you that it's something he was still interested in. They're the ones controlling the pipeline. The pipeline created the possibility that Germany could individually give in and start buying from Russia again, without consent from other countries, and that's one of the potential victory conditions for Russia. The gas trade to Germany and western Europe returning to normal is just in general a fairly significant win condition for Russia. Without it their economy is screwed.

Occam's razor says it was Poland. Means, motive, and a unique opportunity. The gas is not on, so the damage is extremely limited. No powerouts in Germany because of this, and in this very unique time, Germany can't really even say "blowing up the pipeline hurts our economy", because officially there is no plan for Germany to buy more gas from Russia.

The only realistic options are the countries bordering that the Baltic Sea, so Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Russia, Germany, and US because US can project power anywhere.

US has no motive. Denmark, Sweden, Finland have no motive. Russia very specifically has a motive to keep the line functional. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are all extremely spiteful towards Russia and would love to see the pipeline go, but they have nothing directly to gain from it, and they're very worried about losing any friends in NATO right now so they wouldn't do anything solo.

Ukraine also has motive, Czech and Slovakia have some motive but not as much, and none of them are likely to have the means. Additionally, Ukraine wouldn't want to alienate Germany (who are providing quite a lot of support even if everyone craps on them for not doing as much as they could).

I'd bet money it was Poland. They just have the most to gain, and they're kind of the only ones who could afford to do it. Not only does this give them almost a veto on the gas trade with Russia which is political power they didn't have yesterday, they also have really significant financial interests tied to the destruction of that pipeline. If the gas trade starts again, Poland will make a lot more money now. They hate Russia and will do anything to hurt them that's not a casus belli, they will do just about anything to help Ukraine, they kinda hate the Germans so hurting them is a definite bonus, they hated this pipeline, and they have very little fear of repercussions from NATO as their role in helping Ukraine is just too crucial. In fact right now, Poland might more political goodwill to spend than at any other point in their history.

Plus most will kinda just assume it was Russians, even though that doesn't make sense.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Russia needs Germany to suffer, so the populace changes their mind about high energy prices vs supporting Ukraine, but without Russia to blame. A rupture can be fixed and gas flows resumed (and it's important it takes a while). Russia can't just turn it off, because the German citizens could just rely on the fact that he's not a reliable partner. Blow up the line and Germany gets forced to see what happens over the next month when gas prices get completely unaffordable (as if they weren't already). It's a "see what would happen if we turned it off?" strategy

Russia turned off the gas in Nord Stream 1 about three weeks ago.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Itse

Russia turned off the gas in Nord Stream 1 about three weeks ago.

Yeah, I think their plan was to hope that Germany would come begging for gas and they could negotiate some kind of side deal. With Nordstream offline, they can't do that now without including Poland, Ukraine, Czechia, and Slovakia in the discussion since all Russian gas destined for Germany would have to cross at least one of those countries. I think all pipelines that connect to Germany have to flow through at least Poland at some point.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

If they have the means now, they likely had the means before. It's not like it has gotten cheaper or easier.

Yes, but those who didn’t have the means before likely still don’t have the means to do so. As much as I despise the Russian government for what they’ve done in the Ukraine I’m still empathetic towards their people who are now being forced to try and keep this #### show going. The only real possible positive that can be taken from all of this is that sending in an army of untrained, unequipped and unwilling soldiers in the long run might result in less bloodshed overall if they are defeated quickly, if you can even call that a positive.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

Yes, but those who didn’t have the means before likely still don’t have the means to do so. As much as I despise the Russian government for what they’ve done in the Ukraine I’m still empathetic towards their people who are now being forced to try and keep this #### show going. The only real possible positive that can be taken from all of this is that sending in an army of untrained, unequipped and unwilling soldiers in the long run might result in less bloodshed overall if they are defeated quickly, if you can even call that a positive.

Russia has little means to move these people, feed and equip them from what I understand. It is destined to end as another disaster for Putin. What is scary is there very well could be a slaughter on the horizon as they go up against a very determined and now much better equipped Ukrainian force that is fighting for it's own homeland. It's also scary to wonder what Putin will resort to if he is again further humiliated by this action.

It's one thing to lay your life on the line as the Ukrainians have to defend their lands, it's an entirely other thing to expect ordinary Russian citizens to do so for some idiots self aggrandizing campaign of bloodshed that many wanted no part of to begin with. I would expect that on average every single Ukrainian soldier will be worth 2-3 of these conscripts.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

Yes, but those who didn’t have the means before likely still don’t have the means to do so. As much as I despise the Russian government for what they’ve done in the Ukraine I’m still empathetic towards their people who are now being forced to try and keep this #### show going. The only real possible positive that can be taken from all of this is that sending in an army of untrained, unequipped and unwilling soldiers in the long run might result in less bloodshed overall if they are defeated quickly, if you can even call that a positive.

Yeah, for sure. The scenes of men, many of which look unfit for combat, being torn from their families, are heart wrenching. Imagine watching your kid have a panic attack because they were taking you away, or watching your spouse being put on a bus with no provisions knowing they are going to a war zone. It's horrific to think about. A lot of these men are not going to last a week in Ukraine and they all know it.

[edslunch]

What is Russia saying about the pipelines? Are they blaming someone else, for real or for false flag justification? Are they playing coy to intimidate Europe? I would think if someone other than Russia did this there would be a major reaction to an ‘unprovoked’ attack by ‘NATO’. Maybe their bluff has been called?

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

Russia has little means to move these people, feed and equip them from what I understand. It is destined to end as another disaster for Putin. What is scary is there very well could be a slaughter on the horizon as they go up against a very determined and now much better equipped Ukrainian force that is fighting for it's own homeland. It's also scary to wonder what Putin will resort to if he is again further humiliated by this action.

It's one thing to lay your life on the line as the Ukrainians have to defend their lands, it's an entirely other thing to expect ordinary Russian citizens to do so for some idiots self aggrandizing campaign of bloodshed that many wanted no part of to begin with. I would expect that on average every single Ukrainian soldier will be worth 2-3 of these conscripts.

Best case scenario is that these conscripts surrender as soon as they cross the border but I can only imagine what they and their families are being threatened with if they don’t fight.

[Johnny Makarov]

So what is the best outcome of sending these draftees into Ukraine?

They all get destroyed and it will be up to the women, children and seniors of the soldiers to get out and revolt?

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by edslunch

What is Russia saying about the pipelines? Are they blaming someone else, for real or for false flag justification? Are they playing coy to intimidate Europe? I would think if someone other than Russia did this there would be a major reaction to an ‘unprovoked’ attack by ‘NATO’. Maybe their bluff has been called?

Russia is saying they suspect Polish or Ukrainian involvement, but don't seem to be saying anything definitive. Poland and Ukraine are blaming Russia.

A Polish member of EU parliament and former defense minister is saying the U.S. did it and thanked them for it in a Tweet. Biden did threaten the project back in February saying he would bring an end to it if Russia invaded Ukraine.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michael...h=207d315b312e

I think the American connection doesn't make much sense at this point based on the timing.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

U.S. sabotage is just ridiculous. They would not jeopardize NATO leadership at the moment when the Russians are floundering and unraveling. Handicapping Germany does not mobilize the Germans to take a more central military aid role; it would do quite the opposite as they would pivot towards economic stability heading into the winter.

I think it's Occam's Razor here, and if not Russia directly, a proxy supporter they can throw under the bus.

I know everyone loves the US in this 'war', but I think we are forgetting the lengths they will go to exert power and protect their interests.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

Yes, but those who didn’t have the means before likely still don’t have the means to do so. As much as I despise the Russian government for what they’ve done in the Ukraine I’m still empathetic towards their people who are now being forced to try and keep this #### show going. The only real possible positive that can be taken from all of this is that sending in an army of untrained, unequipped and unwilling soldiers in the long run might result in less bloodshed overall if they are defeated quickly, if you can even call that a positive.

I have no empathy for those people.

Those men have a choice, they could fight for their freedom in Russia. There's hundreds of thousands of them, and there's millions more with aligning interest. There's no reason to think it would be more dangerous for them to refuse en masse than it is to go to Ukraine, in fact it would likely be less dangerous, as the casualty rates for Russians in Ukraine are just horrendous. 300.000 men is plenty to take on Kremlin, now that the bulk of the military AND much of their internal security forces are tied up in Ukraine.

These men will rather risk their lives taking part in a genocide in Ukraine than fighting for freedom in their own country. That's their choice, and they deserve no sympathy for what ever happens to them when they decide to attack another country.

Cowardice is no excuse to take part in murder.