2025 Toronto Blue Jays Season Thread

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Surely someone with the self-selected name 'Mathgod' can be more precise than that, but I'll help you out on that one. If we assume a game between two teams deep in the playoffs is a 50/50 winning probability for either team then a team down 2-0 in a best of 7 has an 18.25% chance of winning.

Lived experience suggests the odds are not quite that good, with teams down 2-0 winning 16.1% of the time in nearly 100 samples. See: https://www.mlb.com/news/blue-jays-l...0-in-alcs-2025

That seems about right to me - any team that makes the CS is good at baseball so the probabilities should be close to 50/50, but if one team is up 2-0 maybe they're a bit better and they have a slightly better than 50% chance of winning the next games. Still, whether you use 18.25% or 16.1% I don't think "extremely unlikely" is the right descriptor.

Edited to add: polymarket has the Jays as an 18% chance of winning the AL right now, which suggests that my odds above are at least reasonable.

Sure, do the super original thing and be the millionth person to cite my username as a way to get a dig in on me.

The thing about the odds you're not taking into account is that the Jays hugely overachieved this year - they came into the year expected to be nowhere near the playoffs. They are undoubtedly much better than last year, but I'd argue they're in the CS largely because they have the Yankees' number and match up well against them.

They also blew their huge division lead down the stretch, barely hanging on to the division instead of winning it handily. (I think a truly good team wouldn't have blown that lead.) Without their 8-5 record vs the Yankees (just one fewer win), they don't win the division, and have to play a best of 3 vs Boston and who knows what happens.

The Jays needed a lot of things to go their way to win the division - and they got those things. Now it appears those things are suddenly going the other way. I don't think this team is good enough to overcome the sudden swing in fortunes. I'd argue they aren't as good as their 94-68 record would suggest.

The Mariners on the other hand have really hit their stride down the stretch and continued it into the playoffs. They went 17-1 to end their season (losing their final 3 games after they had already clinched their division). They then found a way to win a best of 5 series vs a team that had their dominant ace starting 2 of the 5 games. They played a lengthy, emotional 15 inning game and still managed to win vs the 'mighty' Jays less than 48 hrs later despite travel and short rest. Followed that up with a blowout of those 'mighty' Jays the very next night.

This Mariners team is very good and is playing its best baseball at the right time. They remind me a lot of the 2 teams that knocked the Jays out in 2015 and 2016. This script is all too familiar, and it's why I'm confidently predicting the Jays won't make a comeback and win this series.

One other thing - the Jays and Mariners were both dominant home teams this year, and sub-.500 teams on the road. The Jays just blew their home games, and now have to win 2 of 3 in Seattle just to have another chance at home. Going in as a mediocre road team into a building where road teams don't win very often... it looks bleak. It looks very bleak.

[cross16]

As fun as the Jays have been this year, i'm still not convinced they are a great team as I think this team has some pretty big flaws, but to their credit they came together to overcome them.

Just have to do it again, but that's going to be really difficult if Vlady doesn't start capitalizing.

[jayswin]

Vladdy's gotta be better than 0 hits, that's for sure.

[GirlySports]

They may have not missed Bichette against NY but they sure miss him now. No way Barger should be hitting 4th.

They did hit the ball hard yesterday, just right at people.

[Jiri Hrdina]

According to Umpireauditor, last night was the worst called playoff game since 2022
Though I think it was bad both ways.

[jayswin]

Barger has looked great at times in the regular season, but these playoffs he gets up, stares at the 5th deck in the outfield and says to himself "If I just swing really hard every time the ball comes in I could eventually get one up there like Delgado did that one time".

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

According to Umpireauditor, last night was the worst called playoff game since 2022
Though I think it was bad both ways.

Not surprised at all. By the 7th inning I figured it would be the worst this playoffs, but worst in 3 years is crazy.

[bizaro86]

Barger cooling off has been one of the big differences between the huge hot streak in the middle of thr season and now.

[activeStick]

I'm still pretty hopeful the Jays can turn this around. The Mariners just aren't that scary to me except for a couple of guys and certainly can't compare to the Yankees for me. Give them credit, they've played their best games through 2. The Jays have the kind of group that if they find their pitches, they'll run up 6 or 7 quite easily. I think they'll get 2 of 3 if not all 3 in Seattle. Let's go baby!!

[Inferno]

They might be overachieving this season but I would say they underachieved last year.

I'd also say the Mariners aren't this good either but got hot at the right time. Both of these games were winnable but the Blue Jays shot themselves in the foot.

[ben voyonsdonc]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Barger cooling off has been one of the big differences between the huge hot streak in the middle of thr season and now.

Here’s how I’d like to see the lineup against RHP:

Springer DH
Lukes RF
Guerrero 1B
Varsho CF
Kirk C
Santander LF
Barger 3B
Clement 2B
Gimenez SS

[activeStick]

How long is Santander out for? It's too bad he was taken out of yesterday's game because i felt he was starting to come around.

[bluejays]

I fully agree that this series is still possible to turn around. There are two or three batters to be weary of in Seattle, much like the Jays approached NY, that they should do the same. That said, to me the key on the pitching front is to not give up walks. This has been killing them as it seems to always lead to a steal then a run. It’s aggravating to watch. Schneider also has to put more stock in his starters when they're in minima trouble. Their bullpen is mediocre.

Batters just have to get on a roll. There’s no other words for it but it has to be figured out. When on base they have to steal too. This is such an understated tool these days. It totally keeps the pitchers off their delivery game. For Seattle to have the second slowest guy in the league get 30 steals this year is amazing. Last night they had the runners to do it but didn’t. It didn’t cost them the game but they have to be more aggressive.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by bluejays

I fully agree that this series is still possible to turn around. There are two or three batters to be weary of in Seattle, much like the Jays approached NY, that they should do the same. That said, to me the key on the pitching front is to not give up walks. This has been killing them as it seems to always lead to a steal then a run. It’s aggravating to watch. Schneider also has to put more stock in his starters when they're in minima trouble. Their bullpen is mediocre.

Batters just have to get on a roll. There’s no other words for it but it has to be figured out. When on base they have to steal too. This is such an understated tool these days. It totally keeps the pitchers off their delivery game. For Seattle to have the second slowest guy in the league get 30 steals this year is amazing. Last night they had the runners to do it but didn’t. It didn’t cost them the game but they have to be more aggressive.

Unfortunately, the Blue Jays really, really, really believe in the 3rd time through the order thing. There's no room for error. Once the error happens, the starter is gone.

Gausmann faced 21 batters in Game 1 (homerun and walk to the 20th and 21st batter)
Yesavage faced 20 batters in Game 2, once Arozarena (the 19th batter) singled, that was it.

[ben voyonsdonc]

Originally Posted by activeStick

How long is Santander out for? It's too bad he was taken out of yesterday's game because i felt he was starting to come around.

It does feel like he’s getting there.

I’m hoping that yesterday was a bit of a precaution with today being an off day. If he isn’t feeling comfortable enough to play the outfield maybe they can use him at DH instead.

[bluejays]

Seems like Georgie wants that DH spot when it’s better suited for Santander.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by bluejays

Seems like Georgie wants that DH spot when it’s better suited for Santander.

He seems to believe it's been a key part of him getting his bat turned around on this season. The degree to which its true probably doesn't matter because he thinks it's true, so I think you have to respect that.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Unfortunately, the Blue Jays really, really, really believe in the 3rd time through the order thing. There's no room for error. Once the error happens, the starter is gone.

Gausmann faced 21 batters in Game 1 (homerun and walk to the 20th and 21st batter)
Yesavage faced 20 batters in Game 2, once Arozarena (the 19th batter) singled, that was it.

Yup and this isn't Schneider managing scared, as some have suggested. This is him managing the game as he thinks it should be managed. Which one can disagree with, but at this point we shouldn't be surprised when he does this stuff. It's how he manages the game.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Yup and this isn't Schneider managing scared, as some have suggested. This is him managing the game as he thinks it should be managed. Which one can disagree with, but at this point we shouldn't be surprised when he does this stuff. It's how he manages the game.

Yeah. I can see pulling Gausman after a HR and a walk.

Yesavage after an infield single? I think one more actual at-bat (not just sticking him with an earned run from intentionally walking Raleigh) would be reasonable

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Yeah. I can see pulling Gausman after a HR and a walk.

Yesavage after an infield single? I think one more actual at-bat (not just sticking him with an earned run from intentionally walking Raleigh) would be reasonable

Yesavage has never played this many innings and his velocity was dropping constantly inning to inning and he was getting no misses.

He should have been pulled, he was about to get lit up too.