[Signing] Flames sign Brouwer (4 yrs, $4.5mil AAV, NTC)

[Flamenspiel]

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[Alberta_Beef]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Some fans have the unrealistic goal of having everyone on the roster on sweetheart cap friendly deals. That isn't realistic. Brouwer makes market value for an UFA. Certainly I think we'll be getting more out of his 4.5 million next year than we were out of Hudler at 4, Jones at 4, Wideman at 5.5 and Raymond at 3. If you compare what he brings to other UFAs his deal is perfectly reasonable.

Pretty shocked at all he negative reaction. Some people just aren't going to like any contract a veteran UFA signs but not signing any of them ever isn't very realistic.

It's not just that, Brouwer is getting the same reactions as Backlund, Frolik and Colborne last year "he's not a top 6 forward". People have it in their heads that 2nd line forwards score more points than they actually do.

This season:
Tied for 137th in points among forwards. Tied 33rd among RW.
Tied for 110th in goals among forwards. Tied 31st among RW.
Tied for 45th in powerplay goals among forwards. Tied 12th among RW.
Tied for 122nd in powerplay points among forwards. Tied 28th among RW.
22nd in hits among forwards. 6th among RW.
48th in blocked shots among forwards. 13th among RW.

Last 5 years:
Tied for 96th in points among forwards. 28th among RW.
Tied for 46th in goals among forwards. 16th among RW.
Tied for 21st in powerplay goals among forwards. 8th among RW.
Tied for 61st in powerplay points among forwards. 16th among RW.
11th in hits among forwards. 5th among RW.
45th in blocked shots among forwards. 7th among RW.

These are pretty clearly 2nd line numbers in today's NHL.

[old-fart]

I think some people have unrealistic expectations, and/or have a "hate on" for a particular player that clouds their judgements and colors their opinions.

Almost universally this signing is being seen as "good" or at least "market value" and again almost universally as "what the Flames needed". And that is by fans of the Flames, fans of other teams, so called "experts" and pundits.

However, there are a few that fancy themselves as closet GMs that truly don't understand how things work. They are mad at either the term or the $ based on no tangible evidence and yet their alternatives are nonsensical. Trading multiple assets to get an RFA that is "a proper top 6 player" puts us in other difficult cap situations and sacrifices longer term future plans. If you think this signing is an overpay, what you would be advocating above is an extreme overpay, both in terms of assets given up and likely cost to secure (if it was a reasonable contract the original team would be getting the paperwork done).

Trades/signings don't happen in a vacuum.

[SuperMatt18]

That really nails it on the head - fans have unreal standards for what a 1st line or 2nd line player should be. Brouwer's production last year is easily "2nd line" production - even on an elite scoring team it would be 2nd line production.

40 forwards had more than 60 points last year - that means on average a team's first line is only made up of 2 60 point forwards in the best case scenario.

135 forwards had between 35-59 points. So pretty much means that the average team would have 4 35-60 point forwards in their top 6.

So if you look at it that way really strong teams would have:

2: 60+ Point Forwards
4-5: 35-59 Point Forwards

The top four scoring teams in the league last year were Dallas, Washington, Pittsburgh, & San Jose.

Dallas (6 forwards above 35 points)
Benn-89 pts
Seguin-73 pts
Spezza- 63 pts
Sharp - 55 pts
Hemsky - 39 pts
Eakin - 35 pts

Washington (8 forwards above 35 points)
Kuznetsov - 77 pts
Ovechkin - 71 pts
Backstrom - 70 pts
Williams - 52 pts
Oshie - 51 pts
Johansson - 46 pts
Chimera - 40 pts
Burakovsky - 38 points

Pittsburgh: (6 above 35 points)
Crosby - 85 pts
Malkin - 58 pts (PPG)
Kessel - 59 pts
Hornqvist - 51 pts
Kunitz - 40 pts
Bonino - 29 (37 over 82GP)

San Jose: (7 above 35 points)
Thornton-82 pts
Pavelski - 78 pts
Marleau - 48 pts
Hertl - 46 pts
Ward - 43 pts
Couture - 36 pts (57 pt pace)
Donskoi - 36 pts

Flames need their young guys to continue to step up and become true offensive superstars - but pieces like Frolik and Brouwer are helping to build that lower end depth.

On the roster we have 4 guys who put up 35+ points for us last year:

Gaudreau: 78 pts
Monahan: 63 pts
Backlund: 47 pts
Bennett: 36 pts (expect that to grow)

We need 3 others to help us in our top 6/9:

Brouwer: 39 pts (5th among Blues forwards)
Frolik: 32 pts (82 game pace of 41pts - which happens to be pretty much exactly what he did the two seasons prior in Winnipeg)
Tkachuk: 45 pts (NHL Equivlency based on last years OHL season)

Then hopefully a couple of the young guys from the group of Jankowski, Shinkaruk, Pollock, Klimchuk, Mangiapane, Pribyl, or Porier can step up to replace the performance needed from those depth guys when they are ready in 2 to 3 years.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

That really nails it on the head - fans have unreal standards for what a 1st line or 2nd line player should be.

40 forwards had more than 60 points last year - that means on average a team's first line is only made up of 2 60 point forwards in the best case scenario.

135 forwards had between 35-60 points. So pretty much means that the average team would have 4 35-60 point forwards in their top 6.

So if you look at it that way really strong teams would have:

2: 60+ Point Forwards
4-5: 35+ Point Forwards

The top four scoring teams in the league last year were Dallas, Washington, Pittsburgh, & San Jose.

Dallas (6 forwards above 35 points)
Benn-89 pts
Seguin-73 pts
Spezza- 63 pts
Sharp - 55 pts
Hemsky - 39 pts
Eakin - 35 pts

Washington (8 forwards above 35 points)
Kuznetsov - 77 pts
Ovechkin - 71 pts
Backstrom - 70 pts
Williams - 52 pts
Oshie - 51 pts
Johansson - 46 pts
Chimera - 40 pts
Burakovsky - 38 points

Pittsburgh: (6 above 35 points)
Crosby - 85 pts
Malkin - 58 pts (PPG)
Kessel - 59 pts
Hornqvist - 51 pts
Kunitz - 40 pts
Bonino - 29 (37 over 82GP)

San Jose: (7 above 35 points)
Thornton-82 pts
Pavelski - 78 pts
Marleau - 48 pts
Hertl - 46 pts
Ward - 43 pts
Couture - 36 pts (57 pt pace)
Donskoi - 36 pts

Flames need their young guys to continue to step up and become true offensive superstars - but pieces like Frolik and Brouwer are helping to build that lower end depth.

On the roster we have 4 guys who put up 35+ points for us last year:

Gaudreau: 78 pts
Monahan: 63 pts
Backlund: 47 pts
Bennett: 36 pts

We need 3 others to help us in our top 6/9:

Brouwer: 39 pts (5th among Blues forwards)
Frolik: 32 pts (82 game pace of 41pts - which happens to be pretty much exactly what he did the two seasons prior in Winnipeg)
Tkachuk: 45 pts (NHL Equivlency based on last years OHL season)

Then hopefully a couple of the young guys from the group of Jankowski, Shinkaruk, Pollock, Klimchuk, Mangiapane, Pribyl, or Porier can step up to replace the performance needed from those depth guys when they are ready in 2 to 3 years.

It also helps that the Flames have 4 D who are capable of 35+ (or even 40+) points, assuming they keep Wideman.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Don't take the idea of an offer sheet literally. RFAs are traded yearly by teams strapped for cap space or budget for less or roughly equal to their offer sheet value - just because they weren't officially offersheeted doesn't mean the trades weren't essentially the equivalent of one. How did the Capitals acquire Troy Brouwer in the first place six years ago? A trade while he was an RFA. Let's not act like our Dougie Hamilton acquisition doesn't fall into the same category.

Ok, that makes more sense. When you said offer sheet I thought you meant offer sheet.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

It also helps that the Flames have 4 D who are capable of 35+ (or even 40+) points, assuming they keep Wideman.

Yup - although with a system that will likely be less reliant on the rush, and potentially a little more defensive structure that may come down.

Still the Flames have 3 elite point producing d-men to go along with that forward group - just need more help in the defensive d-man area.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by old-fart

I think some people have unrealistic expectations, and/or have a "hate on" for a particular player that clouds their judgements and colors their opinions.

Almost universally this signing is being seen as "good" or at least "market value" and again almost universally as "what the Flames needed". And that is by fans of the Flames, fans of other teams, so called "experts" and pundits.

However, there are a few that fancy themselves as closet GMs that truly don't understand how things work. They are mad at either the term or the $ based on no tangible evidence and yet their alternatives are nonsensical. Trading multiple assets to get an RFA that is "a proper top 6 player" puts us in other difficult cap situations and sacrifices longer term future plans. If you think this signing is an overpay, what you would be advocating above is an extreme overpay, both in terms of assets given up and likely cost to secure (if it was a reasonable contract the original team would be getting the paperwork done).

Trades/signings don't happen in a vacuum.

So let me get this straight:

Agree with the signing = Allowed to be considered a normal fan.
Disagree with the signing = Fancy oneself as closet GMs that truly don't understand how things work

So just because I don't see the roster as it stands right now winning a cup in the next four years and I don't envision the flexibility and room in any single part of the next four seasons to take the next, and most difficult step, it makes me a "closet GM that doesn't truly understand how things work".

Sorry for not falling in line in my opinion.

[FlameZilla]

FWIW: http://mynhltraderumors.com/rink-rum...cy/2016/07/04/

Here are the teams that may have found the best bang for the buck:

Calgary Flames – Troy Brouwer scored the game-winner for St. Louis in their first-round victory over Chicago and help the Blues reach the Western Conference Final. The 30-year-old has averaged 20 goals over the last seven seasons and while players of comparable age signed six or seven year contracts, Brouwer agreed to a four-year, $18 million deal with the Flames.

[EldrickOnIce]

Washington is the perfect example that illustrates my concern. 8 forwards scoring at 'second line level' or above, but are only paying 3 of them over 4 million per. Getting elite scoring for average salaries.
Next year the Flames will have 4 forwards over 4 million, the year after probably 5.
Thats why I'm not a fan of contract moving forward,specifically in expected decline in value over the term.
I will be happy to be wrong.

[devo22]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Washington is the perfect example that illustrates my concern. 8 forwards scoring at 'second line level' or above, but are only paying 3 of them over 4 million per. Getting elite scoring for average salaries.
Next year the Flames will have 4 forwards over 4 million, the year after probably 5.
Thats why I'm not a fan of contract moving forward,specifically in expected decline in value over the term.
I will be happy to be wrong.

The Caps paid Brouwer 3.7m themselves. The Flames now add just 0.8m to that ... which can be seen as UFA tax.

[bigrangy]

Brouwer is a good player, signed for market value, that fills the biggest hole on this team.

I like the signing from that angle.

The Flames will have intentions on becoming a cup contending team sometime before Brouwer's contract is finished. My main concern is that I don't think a team with Brouwer and Frolik as their #1 and #2 right wingers will ever be a favorite for the cup, unless JG is the best player in the league, both Bennet and Monahan become elite #1 centres, and Tkachuk can be a 1st line winger stuck on a second line. I don't think any of these are a lock (except for johnny of course), let alone all 4 of them being likely. The end result of whatever the Flames are building has to result in a team that can be looked at as a strong contender to win it all, and with the Brouwer and Frolik deals structured the way they are, I can't see it happening before those deals are up. Both Brouwer and Frolik are good players, and are worth their contracts, but a contending team won't be able to have 8.8 million tied up in players that would ideally be your #2 and #3 right wingers, at least imo. Conventional wisdom said the Pens wouldn't have a shot at the cup with the defense they had, but they managed to find a way. The Flames are going to need everything to go right with the way they are building their team, and I believe the Brouwer signing to be a little more risky than it had to be.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Washington is the perfect example that illustrates my concern. 8 forwards scoring at 'second line level' or above, but are only paying 3 of them over 4 million per. Getting elite scoring for average salaries.
Next year the Flames will have 4 forwards over 4 million, the year after probably 5.
Thats why I'm not a fan of contract moving forward,specifically in expected decline in value over the term.
I will be happy to be wrong.

That was the bridge/ELC effect though - Johansson, Burakovsky, Kuznetsov will all be getting paid much more than that in the next year.

We need Tkachuk, Bennett, and 1/2 of our other young forward prospects to do the same for us in the next 3 to 4 years.

[Erratik]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Washington is the perfect example that illustrates my concern. 8 forwards scoring at 'second line level' or above, but are only paying 3 of them over 4 million per. Getting elite scoring for average salaries.
Next year the Flames will have 4 forwards over 4 million, the year after probably 5.
Thats why I'm not a fan of contract moving forward,specifically in expected decline in value over the term.
I will be happy to be wrong.

Johansson needs a new contract this offseason. Oshie, Kuznetsov, and Burakovsky will all need raises next summer as well. They won't be able to keep all of them if they continue to produce at the same rate.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by devo22

The Caps paid Brouwer 3.7m themselves. Calgary add just 0.8m to that ... which can be seen as UFA tax.

That's the thing, isn't it? 0.8m for four years = 3.2m. If you signed an RFA or traded for a player to fill that role, you would have to give up other assets in return. All Brouwer costs is money.

So the question is: The assets saved by not having to trade for a Brouwer equivalent, are they worth more or less than $3.2 million?

Just a year ago, Brouwer was the principal piece in the trade that brought T. J. Oshie to the Capitals. Four years before that, he was traded for the #26 overall pick. Offhand, I would say both those assets are worth a good deal more than $3.2 million, which means the UFA ‘tax’ is not excessive.

Some people seem to think that a player's cap hit is the only cost a team needs to think about. Cost of acquisition matters just as much, and if you reduce that cost to zero, you can afford to give a little extra in other ways.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Don't take the idea of an offer sheet literally. RFAs are traded yearly by teams strapped for cap space or budget for less or roughly equal to their offer sheet value - just because they weren't officially offersheeted doesn't mean the trades weren't essentially the equivalent of one. How did the Capitals acquire Troy Brouwer in the first place six years ago? A trade while he was an RFA. Let's not act like our Dougie Hamilton acquisition doesn't fall into the same category.

Looking at your metapohrical 'offer sheet' and the example of Tyler Toffoli, I am a little curious. What do you think the contract cost of a 24-year-old centre who scored 30 goals in his third NHL season would be? Easily what we'll be paying Sean Monahan long term, no? Add on top acquisition cost. If the Kings put that guy on the market, there would be a bidding war. Are you willing to give up Bennett and a first rounder?

It's easy to say "oh, just go take advantage of a cap-screwed team". But if it was so easy, we would see it happen far more frequently than it does. Sometimes you have no choice but to fill holes on the UFA market, and that rarely means bargain shopping. The fact that we got a guy at market value is impressive enough as it is.

[Chonger]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

I love them. I love watching people get called out. I wish it happened more.

Sounds like something a Oiler fan pretending to be a Flames fan on Calgary Puck would say....... you just got your wish : )

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Looking at your metapohrical 'offer sheet' and the example of Tyler Toffoli, I am a little curious. What do you think the contract cost of a 24-year-old centre who scored 30 goals in his third NHL season would be? Easily what we'll be paying Sean Monahan long term, no? Add on top acquisition cost. If the Kings put that guy on the market, there would be a bidding war. Are you willing to give up Bennett and a first rounder?

It's easy to say "oh, just go take advantage of a cap-screwed team". But if it was so easy, we would see it happen far more frequently than it does. Sometimes you have no choice but to fill holes on the UFA market, and that rarely means bargain shopping. The fact that we got a guy at market value is impressive enough as it is.

Bennett? What suggests to you Toffoli returns anything of the order of Sam Bennett. Jankowski, Kylington, or Andersson maybe.

what did Ryan O'Rielly cost? Zadorov, Grigorenko, and a high second.
what did Brandon Saad cost? Dano, Anisimov, and some spare parts.
what did Dougie Hamilton cost? 15, 45, 51 overall.

To the other part of your argument - that Toffoli would be paid Sean Monahan dollars - that's a reasonable salary for a dominant forward over the grand portion of his prime. The difference is now you're looking to fill small holes cheap. I would not prefer Brouwer+Frolik at 8.5M for Toffoli at 6.5M or Kessel at 6.8. Even if that leaves you short a forward quantity-wise. YMMV.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Bennett? What suggests to you Toffoli returns anything of the order of Sam Bennett. Jankowski, Kylington, or Andersson maybe

Tyler's 30 goals a season suggests that.

I like all of those three prospects you listed, but come on man. Your analysis is bordering on cartoonish now.

[GranteedEV]

The only thing cartoonish is the nature of your odd obsession with attacking and belittling me and my opinion because it disagree with yours, MMF.