2015 NFL Offseason Thread

[Senator Clay Davis]

Well the contract pretty much puts the pressure on Wilson and the offense to produce a lot more. There will obviously be some casualties on the defensive side to make the cap work. So if Wilson elevates to top 5 or so QB, the tradeoff in defensive decline in theory is worth it. Seahawks need to draft receivers well as they have a lot tied up in QB/RB/TE.

[browna]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

Seahawks, Russell Wilson agree to $87.6M extension

Well, so ends the Seahawks dynasty. That's a crazy cap hit.

Agreed, but in the NFL you get paid for past accomplishments. When you look at what some WR's get, who's teams have done very little (D. Bryant and B. Marshall). He was one mistimed and misguided play away (toss in taking an unnecessary time out a few plays earlier, which forced the playcall to be a pass)from 2 SB's in his first 3 years, and really one defensive stand in ATL in the final minute away from 3 NFCC games in his 3 years. Toss in all the stats he has against SB winning QB, and win totals etc etc, that price was inevitable.

That said, this hamstrings the team. The reason they got to two SB's in a row is because after that ATL loss, they had the money to pick up more help on defense (namely a pass rush with Bennett and Avril) and guys like Wagner (who could be a casualty of this) stepping in at LB as a young guy. That pass rush forced Qb's to throw it into those LB's and the secondary and made that defense the best in the last decade or more.

However, there are numerous games over the last couple years, in the middle of the regular seasons, that Wilson did very little for over half a game, and defensive stands or turnovers, holding teams to FG's or less at critical times in the first 3 quarters, allowed him to come back in the 4th quarter. The GB NFCC game was an extreme example obviously (and some chicken playcalling by McCarthy going for FG's), but if some of those numerous regular season games, either year, ended in losses, at very least Seattle would not have had home field advantage through the playoffs, which is also massive.

Last year especially, he's hesitated to use his legs until the second half of games, and that's a big x factor compared to most QB's which he needs to use more. That, and having probably the best RB in the league, has helped him throughout too.

Wasn't a fan of his gabbing this offseason either, about the contract and all this extra stuff (to be fair, he just answered some questions a little too frankly). Didn't expect the Seahawks to cut bait, but hoped for something...else. Carroll and Schnieder have found guys and they've been coached them up within the system, and replaced others who expected to play by merit.

So, not sure how I feel about this, but I expect the team to regress because they can't get those extra 2 or 3 quality players (say, if Wilson made only $10-12 mil a year, not $22) each year for the next couple years, mainly on defense, to compete and push other players to be better, which has been the Seahawks mantra. Nevermind there is Wagner unhappy, Bennett unhappy and Chancellor unhappy. I don't think this signing is going to make any of these guys happy given the money that's been applied to the QB.

[Hockeyguy15]

As a Cardinals fan I am very pleased with this deal.

[Erick Estrada]

I think Wilson is a very good QB but now he's getting paid to carry a team whereas it's been the defense and running game that's carried the team the past few years and Wilson has just had to make some plays here and there when needed. To his credit he has been pretty clutch when he's been called on but the Seahawks record isn't nearly as good when opponents score over 22 points so if the defense slips it's going to be tough sledding.

[PostandIn]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

Seahawks, Russell Wilson agree to $87.6M extension

Well, so ends the Seahawks dynasty. That's a crazy cap hit.

The Seahawks are not a dynasty (refer to Cowboys '93 '94 '96 and Steelers '75 '76 '79 '80) nor a mini dynasty (see Patriots, Giant, Niners, Packers, Dolphins, Broncos. Teams that won back to back Superbowls or two in a short number of years). That said, Seattle's D is an all-time type of defense given that statistically they've been the best for three years running which is almost unheard of. Might be a first, I'm not sure.

Second, the deal is only exceptional in the guaranteed money component and even that isn't that big a deal if you consider that Kaepernick and a bunch of others, with not even half of Wilson's success, have essentially the same guaranteed cash. The idea of paying Wilson $10M a year, or getting a substantial discount from where they eventually settled, is pretty far-fetched. There's not really any miracle solutions to these things that trump all the known negotiating and systemic factors. The cap moves up every year and with each passing year this deal gets better. The four year term protects the Seahawks if Wilson get hurt (more likely) or regresses (less likely).

Every team with a top shelf QB and lot's of teams that have scrubs but had to or chose to pay big money (i.e. Flacco) have to go through this. A few teams (i.e. Packers, Steelers and Patriots) stay competitive for long periods of time. The Packers aren't dog meat because Aaron Rodgers is the highest paid QB. They should have been in the Superbowl last year.

Lastly, I don't know if there is a team better positioned for sustained success than the Seahawks given their youth (2nd or 3rd youngest), their recent success (which tends to breed more success), and most importantly, the number of high quality core players under contract.

[Da_Chief]

Originally Posted by PostandIn

The Seahawks are not a dynasty (refer to Cowboys '93 '94 '96 and Steelers '75 '76 '79 '80) nor a mini dynasty (see Patriots, Giant, Niners, Packers, Dolphins, Broncos. Teams that won back to back Superbowls or two in a short number of years). That said, Seattle's D is an all-time type of defense given that statistically they've been the best for three years running which is almost unheard of. Might be a first, I'm not sure.

Second, the deal is only exceptional in the guaranteed money component and even that isn't that big a deal if you consider that Kaepernick and a bunch of others, with not even half of Wilson's success, have essentially the same guaranteed cash. The idea of paying Wilson $10M a year, or getting a substantial discount from where they eventually settled, is pretty far-fetched. There's not really any miracle solutions to these things that trump all the known negotiating and systemic factors. The cap moves up every year and with each passing year this deal gets better. The four year term protects the Seahawks if Wilson get hurt (more likely) or regresses (less likely).

Every team with a top shelf QB and lot's of teams that have scrubs but had to or chose to pay big money (i.e. Flacco) have to go through this. A few teams (i.e. Packers, Steelers and Patriots) stay competitive for long periods of time. The Packers aren't dog meat because Aaron Rodgers is the highest paid QB. They should have been in the Superbowl last year.

Lastly, I don't know if there is a team better positioned for sustained success than the Seahawks given their youth (2nd or 3rd youngest), their recent success (which tends to breed more success), and most importantly, the number of high quality core players under contract.

Pats are a dynasty, 4 super bowls and 8 AFC titles in this century.

Hawks defence isn't even the best in this century, let alone an all-time D. The Ravens and Bucs had more dominant defences this century.

[PostandIn]

^ This is like picking gnat #### out of pepper but my point was being statistically (points, yards, DVOA, etc.) the best defense over however many consecutive years, not the best for a single season. Even then, number four seems fairly all-timey to me.

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article...-chicago-bears

In other news, ILB Bobby Wagner has been extended for four years

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/13...ract-extension

[browna]

Looking at the Wilson deal now that some more details are out, it's not quite as team restricting as first thought. The cap hit really is $17.6 or so, because the final year of the rookie deal was torn up, so its spread over 5 year. $31 signing bonus plus a $700k salary this year are all that is guaranteed (except for injury). Each year forward, the next years salary (going from $14 to $19m over the course of the next 4 years is guaranteed at some point a week after the season officially starts.

So in theory, if after a couple years, Wilson really regresses, there's no further cap hit if they decided to cut ties. Not that I see it regressing that quickly ala Wilson turning into Jamarcus Russell, bu it does give Seattle the nationality if required, with no further obligation/cap hit from that point forward...and with it a 5 year deal, not 4, that extra $5m helps in signing a guy like Wagner.

Wagner was a key signing. Chancellor would be the next priority...but Wagner is another of the great low round finds of the same year as Wilson...and the guy a legit stud and athlete.

[Sylvanfan]

I'll be interested to see what Andrew Luck gets paid off his rookie deal. Personally 17 per year for the next 5 years of Wilson would be okay for me. Yeah he's not Luck or Brady or Rogers....but after that group and old man Manning, who's better?

[OILFAN #81]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

I'll be interested to see what Andrew Luck gets paid off his rookie deal. Personally 17 per year for the next 5 years of Wilson would be okay for me. Yeah he's not Luck or Brady or Rogers....but after that group and old man Manning, who's better?

I think Luck will get around 23.5 M and be the highest paid player.

Roethlisberger and Brees are ahead IMO as well.

[d_phaneuf]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...own-every-team

interesting thoughts in there on a few teams

Kansas City Chiefs: "Dumbest offense in football. The league is set up so offense can steal easy passing touchdowns, and the Chiefs don't take advantage of that. I get it. Great running back. But you will never win big in this league not throwing the ball downfield."

Philadelphia Eagles: "I'm not a Chip Kelly hater. I'm the opposite. He's one of those guys where I look at what he does and I say, 'Wish I had thought of that.' The problem he's going to find is that as smart as he is, if you don't have a quarterback, you don't win. He doesn't have a quarterback. It's not Sam Bradford, that's for sure."

New Orleans Saints: "You lose Jimmy Graham, it changes your entire offense. He opened up so much for other players. I think Drew Brees struggles this year."

New York Jets: "One of the worst quarterback situations in the league. Geno [Smith] is awful. What will save them is that defense. I think it could be the best in football. Better than Seattle's. That will keep them from going 3-13. But no more than five wins. Keep a close eye on Brandon [Marshall] blowing that locker room up."

and maybe the strangest, because as a Raider fan I dont think I've seen anything positive written about them since the Super Bowl loss

Oakland Raiders: "If there is one up-and-coming franchise that I would pick to be in the Super Bowl three years from now, it would be this one. Love that quarterback [Derek Carr]. You watch him on film and he can pretty much do everything. Excellent athlete. Amari Cooper might be in the next 10 Pro Bowls. A lot of promise on that franchise. Just not next year. Next year they go 6-10."

[rubecube]

Sounds like Arian Foster has a serious groin injury. Ravens have lost S Matt Elam for the year with torn bicep.

[MickMcGeough]

Why foster why???

[Fozzie_DeBear]

Because...Arian Foster

[Senator Clay Davis]

I mean the lack of self-awareness....Jesus

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I mean the lack of self-awareness....Jesus

Unless they're doing it because of a keen awareness of the issues of the owner.

[Bobblehead]

Aldon Smith booked into Santa Clara County Jail. 49ers had an off day yesterday. I'm sure we will find out shortly what Aldon did.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Yeah his career is probably over. Gotta think he gets at least 1 year for this (repeat offender)

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@SantaClaraPD
From the PIO: SCPD arrested Aldon Smith last night for Hit&Run, DUI, and vandalism. A press release will be provided later this morning.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Dbl post

[Bobblehead]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Yeah his career is probably over. Gotta think he gets at least 1 year for this (repeat offender)

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I think it should be, but I have lost faith in the NFL. I've already stopped following a large part of the NFL news I used to enjoy. And this will be the first year I have zero interest in joining any Fantasy football.