2023/2024 Trade Rumors and Speculation Thread

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by Sandman

Nylander deserves his payday. 87-point wingers who perform in the playoffs definitely don't grow on trees.

That's a tough one.

Sure, he's had some decent-to-good production in recent playoff series, but that has also come at the expense of leading the Leafs in five on five goals against three times in the past four playoff runs. To put that into perspective, Nylander has been on the ice for 23 five on five goals against over the Leafs last four playoff runs, while Marner sits at 13, and Matthews at 14.

With Toronto's current cap structure, 9M dollars is an extremely hefty and risky bet to make on a player who really only thinks about the offensive side of the puck, and has additionally never had a top two finish on his own team in terms of points per game. Is he a guy that can help them win when needed, or is that money better allocated to other areas of the roster? I don't know, and I am glad I am not the one making that call as he is an incredibly gifted player in his own right.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

That's a tough one.

Sure, he's had some decent-to-good production in recent playoff series, but that has also come at the expense of leading the Leafs in five on five goals against three times in the past four playoff runs. To put that into perspective, Nylander has been on the ice for 23 five on five goals against over the Leafs last four playoff runs, while Marner sits at 13, and Matthews at 14.

With Toronto's current cap structure, 9M dollars is an extremely hefty and risky bet to make on a player who really only thinks about the offensive side of the puck, and has additionally never had a top two finish on his own team in terms of points per game. Is he a guy that can help them win when needed, or is that money better allocated to other areas of the roster? I don't know, and I am glad I am not the one making that call as he is an incredibly gifted player in his own right.

That's pretty bad for a player getting as many OZ starts as he is.

68.8% in 2022/23 and a whopping 78% in 2021-22 (both are playoff stats).

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

That's a tough one.

Sure, he's had some decent-to-good production in recent playoff series, but that has also come at the expense of leading the Leafs in five on five goals against three times in the past four playoff runs. To put that into perspective, Nylander has been on the ice for 23 five on five goals against over the Leafs last four playoff runs, while Marner sits at 13, and Matthews at 14.

With Toronto's current cap structure, 9M dollars is an extremely hefty and risky bet to make on a player who really only thinks about the offensive side of the puck, and has additionally never had a top two finish on his own team in terms of points per game. Is he a guy that can help them win when needed, or is that money better allocated to other areas of the roster? I don't know, and I am glad I am not the one making that call as he is an incredibly gifted player in his own right.

Nylander is getting a 30% raise from the cap hit he currently has, they’ll be able to fit him in. They’re also likely betting on Tavares taking a pay cut after likely going to be considered “overpaid” for the last half of his current contract. Topped off with the cap going up, I think Nylander stays.

Which means they might use Brodie as the cap causality. They’re only over 2.9m in cap when the LTIRers (Murray and Muzzin) are already factored.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by blankall

That's pretty bad for a player getting as many OZ starts as he is.

68.8% in 2022/23 and a whopping 78% in 2021-22 (both are playoff stats).

I never understand the OZ stat as a percentage.
In the playoffs(5 on 5) Nylander had 16.7% of his shifts start in the O-zone, 10.8% in the N-zone, 7.2% in the D zone, and 65.3% on the Fly.

If you split it into individual shifts 5 on 5 in the playoffs:
Nylander 42O, 27N, 18D, 164 on the Fly
Matthews 36O, 51N, 12D, 158 on the Fly

[blankall]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

I never understand the OZ stat as a percentage.
In the playoffs(5 on 5) Nylander had 16.7% of his shifts start in the O-zone, 10.8% in the N-zone, 7.2% in the D zone, and 65.3% on the Fly.

If you split it into individual shifts 5 on 5 in the playoffs:
Nylander 42O, 27N, 18D, 164 on the Fly
Matthews 36O, 51N, 12D, 158 on the Fly

I presume that starts on the fly can still be mostly calculated as either defensive or offensive zone starts. Most line changes are going to occur when one team has possession of the puck in the zone, as opposed to the exact instant where the puck is in transit.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by blankall

I presume that starts on the fly can still be mostly calculated as either defensive or offensive zone starts. Most line changes are going to occur when one team has possession of the puck in the zone, as opposed to the exact instant where the puck is in transit.

As far as I know they don't calculate those starts as either offensive, or defensive.

OZS% = offensive zone starts / (offensive + defensive zone starts)

That's why it's such a deceiving stat. In Nylander's case 42/(42+18) = 70%OZS

Natural Stat Trick is a great resource you can use to analyze starts. I just used Moneypuck percentages.

[Braden]

Personally I'm not sure about the Nylander hype. I watched most TO playoff games with a coworker who was a big Toronto fan and the only take away I had from every game was how soft Nylander played. The amount of pucks he bailed on, the amount of icings that got called that he could have avoided but gave up on. I remember thinking hes the reason Toronto was out and I firmly would never want him on the Flames.

Anyone have some stats for him? Who was his most common center? Tavares? How many PP points? His level of competition? Obviously Matthews and Marner were facing the hard competition no? I dont see him as a better player than Huberdeau, wouldn't have been shocked at all if Nylander put up 40-50points on this Flames team last year.

Sure the idea of a getting another "point producer" excites me just as Kadri did, doesnt mean hes the answer, situation matters

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Braden

Personally I'm not sure about the Nylander hype. I watched most TO playoff games with a coworker who was a big Toronto fan and the only take away I had from every game was how soft Nylander played. The amount of pucks he bailed on, the amount of icings that got called that he could have avoided but gave up on. I remember thinking hes the reason Toronto was out and I firmly would never want him on the Flames.

Anyone have some stats for him? Who was his most common center? Tavares? How many PP points? His level of competition? Obviously Matthews and Marner were facing the hard competition no? I dont see him as a better player than Huberdeau, wouldn't have been shocked at all if Nylander put up 40-50points on this Flames team last year.

Sure the idea of a getting another "point producer" excites me just as Kadri did, doesnt mean hes the answer, situation matters

I don't have the data for QoC for the entire season, but here is all of it during the regular season.

Spoiler!

Here are the line combinations in the Regular season:

Spoiler!

Playoffs:

Spoiler!

About 58.5% of his time at even strength in the playoffs was with Tavares as his center.

Source - Dobber's Frozen Tools

[camm13]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

They all still took discounts. Gio was still playing at a high level with Seattle, and I'm sure most Flames fans would've loved to have him back for league min. Jarnkrok was and is a 40P forward, he signed for $2M. I think Spezza was close to 0.5PPG at the time as well. The point was that there were players taking discounts to play for the Leafs.

I'm not saying Nylander is going to take a discount.

Gio, and Spezza local guys yes they took discounts.


Jarnkrok goes for term over AAV. Signed in Toronto cause they were able to give him that. He didn't take a discount because its Toronto. He would have been great here at the price, but at the time Tkachuk situation/salary cap was up in the air. His contract before this one was 6 years at $2M prior in Nashville. There was an interview with him at some point, and he mentioned he doesn't like doing contracts/negotiations , so term was important. Didn't really matter where he plays.

[Reggie Dunlop]

Looks like the Lightning have signed Tyler Motte.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1700586152640614556

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop

Looks like the Lightning have signed Tyler Motte.

Because this happened

Just weeks before training camp across the NHL are set to open, former Pittsburgh Penguins forward Josh Archibald seems to be stepping away from the game.

Archibald was recently signed in free agency by the Tampa Bay Lightning after returning to the Penguins organization for a season.

The Lightning announced that they placed Archibald on unconditional waivers with the purpose of contract termination.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1700568280077828424

[gvitaly]

This is all speculation, but I saw an article a couple of days back that discusses Josh Manson being in some discomfort on the informal skates. Could a Manson injury drive up the interest in Hanifin? Is Colorado even a good fit for the Flames in terms of assets?

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

This is all speculation, but I saw an article a couple of days back that discusses Josh Manson being in some discomfort on the informal skates. Could a Manson injury drive up the interest in Hanifin? Is Colorado even a good fit for the Flames in terms of assets?

I would take a package of Sean Behrens and Oskar Olausson.

[TheScorpion]

I really want to get a first-round pick as part of a deal for Hanifin.

[Sandman]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

I would take a package of Sean Behrens and Oskar Olausson.

I would definitely be interested in D Mikhail Gulyayev as well. Doubt they part with Calum Ritchie. I really like Olausson though.

[Monahammer]

I'd take Ritchie over Colorados first.

Thinking of it more I would need Ritchie to trade hanifin to Colorado. Can't give them hanifin to keep up with makar that seems dumb tbh.

[TheScorpion]

I know he's not related but I just don't want another Ritchie.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I know he's not related but I just don't want another Ritchie.

Byron, Brett, Nick, Regehr. Collect all the Ritchies!!!

[Knut]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I really want to get a first-round pick as part of a deal for Hanifin.

Behrens is equivalent to a first round pick at this point.

[MrMike]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I really want to get a first-round pick as part of a deal for Hanifin.

If we sell low, it will be a Bennett return