Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[PeteMoss]

I can speak to my area in Southwestern Ontario near London/St.Thomas. In April we had record low unemployment rates (up a bit since then). We have also added in the past year or next few years:
Maple Leaf Foods that opened earlier this year that will hire 1600 people
Amazon DC opening that will hire 1000 people
Volkswagen battery place that the government paid billions of dollars for with all those jobs plus the offshoot.

So you either bring in people to work these jobs or the jobs they leave to take these jobs or you get into some kind of wage battle where these huge companies can in the short run pay a higher wage than small companies can afford so you put the smaller companies in a bind where they have to move to whereever, lose money or shut down.

[Yoho]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1687467044294324224

[TheIronMaiden]

6,000 is basically nothing right. barely registers in a ten year span.

https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/employment-change

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

I can speak to my area in Southwestern Ontario near London/St.Thomas. In April we had record low unemployment rates (up a bit since then). We have also added in the past year or next few years:
Maple Leaf Foods that opened earlier this year that will hire 1600 people
Amazon DC opening that will hire 1000 people
Volkswagen battery place that the government paid billions of dollars for with all those jobs plus the offshoot.

So you either bring in people to work these jobs or the jobs they leave to take these jobs or you get into some kind of wage battle where these huge companies can in the short run pay a higher wage than small companies can afford so you put the smaller companies in a bind where they have to move to whereever, lose money or shut down.

Didn’t that part of the country lose thousands of jobs when the auto plants shut down? You’d think there would be enough under-employed blue-collar labour to staff those operations.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

6,000 is basically nothing right. barely registers in a ten year span.

https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/employment-change

Yeah it’s one day for Telus.

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by Yoho

https://twitter.com/user/status/1687467044294324224

Lol, that tweet is galaxy brained. Check out the statistics of growth in Canada.

We are in pretty friggin good shape at the moment.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Didn’t that part of the country lose thousands of jobs when the auto plants shut down? You’d think there would be enough under-employed blue-collar labour to staff those operations.

They likely found other jobs, as the data for that region is showing almost full employment (though things have softened in the last month or so)

And really, you don't bring in immigrants necessarily to fill a labour void that exists right now, it's more of a longer-term thing.

Like I said above, based on current demographics we can expect a net loss of over 100K people each year in the labour force going forward absent immigration. So just to remain stagnant, we would need to increase the labor force by that amount, which equates to about 150K in immigration after accounting for non-working age immigrants (mostly children).

But obviously, a country doesn't want to remain stagnant, so if we want to maintain the long-term labour force growth we've had over the last 20 or so years (about 1.45% a year), we would need to increase the labour force by about 300K a year, which translates to about 450K immigrants. So 150K immigrants to maintain the labour force size, and then an additional 450K to maintain our long-term growth. That puts us at 600K immigrants needed a year, which is right where they've been for the last 4-5 years and where they're targeting for the next several.

So in terms of population, immigration seems excessive. But in terms of labour force, it puts us right at the long-term trajectory. In fact, it's lower than our 30 or 40 year averages (which are closer to 1.6-1.7%/year).

[Yoho]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1687483530631118848

[Fuzz]

This time for sure!

[iggy_oi]

My prediction is that he’s likely not running again but I don’t think Yoho realizes that that’s probably going to help the liberals.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

My prediction is that he’s likely not running again but I don’t think Yoho realizes that that’s probably going to help the liberals.

I certainly think it's possible the official cabinet position will be endorsing Freeland for next PM, and the ousted ministers were any who expressed interest in running against her for party leadership.

I also could see the liberals coming around to Trudeau being their worst chance of re-election.

[8 Ball]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

My prediction is that he’s likely not running again but I don’t think Yoho realizes that that’s probably going to help the liberals.

I thought he was determined to run again.

[Maritime Q-Scout]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

My prediction is that he’s likely not running again but I don’t think Yoho realizes that that’s probably going to help the liberals.

I think it's hard for people on the far right to fathom liking a party overall (positions on rights equality, Healthcare, the economy, COVID response, hating Edmonton and redneck Alberta (with Calgary being an unfortunate bystandard) but not liking the leader.

Replace Trudeau and I think you'll see Liberal numbers in the East go up.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by Maritime Q-Scout

I think it's hard for people on the far right to fathom liking a party overall (positions on rights equality, Healthcare, the economy, COVID response, hating Edmonton and redneck Alberta (with Calgary being an unfortunate bystandard) but not liking the leader.

Replace Trudeau and I think you'll see Liberal numbers in the East go up.

He’s not going anywhere anytime soon without being pushed out.

And no the liberals have proved they are incompetent and won’t be trusted to be back in power for a very long time after he is gone.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by Yoho

He’s not going anywhere anytime soon without being pushed out.

And no the liberals have proved they are incompetent and won’t be trusted to be back in power for a very long time after he is gone.

4 very long years of PP

[flamesfever]

Freeland would be a great replacement. When she speaks. she sounds like she is talking to a kindergarten class. "Now people, we must be careful how we spend our money".

[Harry Lime]

Originally Posted by opendoor

They likely found other jobs, as the data for that region is showing almost full employment (though things have softened in the last month or so)

And really, you don't bring in immigrants necessarily to fill a labour void that exists right now, it's more of a longer-term thing.

Like I said above, based on current demographics we can expect a net loss of over 100K people each year in the labour force going forward absent immigration. So just to remain stagnant, we would need to increase the labor force by that amount, which equates to about 150K in immigration after accounting for non-working age immigrants (mostly children).

But obviously, a country doesn't want to remain stagnant, so if we want to maintain the long-term labour force growth we've had over the last 20 or so years (about 1.45% a year), we would need to increase the labour force by about 300K a year, which translates to about 450K immigrants. So 150K immigrants to maintain the labour force size, and then an additional 450K to maintain our long-term growth. That puts us at 600K immigrants needed a year, which is right where they've been for the last 4-5 years and where they're targeting for the next several.

So in terms of population, immigration seems excessive. But in terms of labour force, it puts us right at the long-term trajectory. In fact, it's lower than our 30 or 40 year averages (which are closer to 1.6-1.7%/year).

500-600K sounds about right, but it doesn't take into consideration the other paths to Canada yearly, such as permanent residency and refugees, which put the total up to over one million last year.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by flamesfever

Freeland would be a great replacement. When she speaks. she sounds like she is talking to a kindergarten class. "Now people, we must be careful how we spend our money".

I don't blame her for trying to be understandable to the opposition. You need to speak in words they comprehend.

[flamesfever]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I don't blame her for trying to be understandable to the opposition. You need to speak in words they comprehend.

I agree, she's great. We could all line up to receive our daily lesson on how we should live our lives. and how she has sacrificed for her family and for the country by dropping her subscription to Disney.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by flamesfever

I agree, she's great. We could all line up to receive our daily lesson on how we should live our lives. and how she has sacrificed for her family and for the country by dropping her subscription to Disney.

Edgy stuff here. Killing it.