Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by you&me

Yes, you're right... The few hundred, or heck, few thousand logistics jobs that are unfilled (is that even a thing?) will only be fixed with a million immigrants a year... having ~400,000 immigrants like we had prior to this post-pandemic ramp up wouldn't due. And no other problems will stem from tripling the rate of immigration.

Dude where are you getting your estimates that there are only a few thousand(credit for acknowledging that a few hundred wasn’t going to be close) logistics(transportation) jobs that are unfilled?

Most conservative estimates would put the number of vacant trucker positions at well over 20,000.

https://truckinghr.com/wp-content/up...n-2022-5-1.pdf

Last year we had close to 1 million vacant jobs and the majority of those jobs are positions that are often filled by new Canadians.

140,000 vacant jobs in food service and hospitality
78,500 vacant jobs in manufacturing, retail etc
Over 80,000 vacant jobs in the construction industry
Over 150,000 in healthcare and social services

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail...1219a-eng.html

It should be noted that a lot of gig jobs(guess who work those?) probably aren’t very well reflected in these numbers and that there’s also probably a large chunk of the people who are immigrating here that are families so determining feasibility would require a little more than just directly comparing the total number of immigrants/refugees to the total number of job available.

[CliffFletcher]

Maybe labour shortages could be addressed by paying people more.

[DFO]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Maybe labour shortages could be addressed by paying people more.

Like larger increases to minimum wages? We all know the vitriol trotted out for that one.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by DFO

Like larger increases to minimum wages? We all know the vitriol trotted out for that one.

Many of those jobs pay much higher than minimum wage. Just let the market find the cost of labour.

[butterfly]

Interesting piece.

https://unherd.com/2023/08/trudeaus-...ration-racket/

[Red Slinger]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Many of those jobs pay much higher than minimum wage. Just let the market find the cost of labour.

When the market alone 'finds' the cost of labour it results in those at the top getting much more and everyone else getting less. Because the market isn't dictated by some magical invisible hand. Rather, it's manipulated by the wealthy. Unless, there are regulations in place, eventually human greed will trump any so-called market forces.

[Harry Lime]

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/statisti...ning-1.1954989

So far this year, monthly employment growth has averaged 22,000.

22K isn't enough to employ the people coming to Canada yearly. Last year we were at 1 050 000 annually, including all tracks to citizenship.

Anyone who has been in the job market since covid can also tell you that a large number of advertisements on the canada job board are ghosts and not really available.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/statisti...ning-1.1954989



22K isn't enough to employ the people coming to Canada yearly. Last year we were at 1 050 000 annually, including all tracks to citizenship.

Anyone who has been in the job market since covid can also tell you that a large number of advertisements on the canada job board are ghosts and not really available.

The employment rate is 62% which is as high or higher than what it had been from 2008-2017. The fact of the matter is that unemployment is low and the employment rate is high which basically means that the job market is pretty robust right now.

[chemgear]

Good time to own real estate in Canada. Immigration is certainly not the only reason but it certainly isn't helping.

https://financialpost.com/news/econo...sing-criticism

Canada’s new immigration minister said he is open to “having a conversation” on concerns raised by some economists and groups on rising immigration targets amid a housing shortage, but said he still has no plans to lower them in the near future.

Stéfane Marion, chief economist at the National Bank of Canada, said in an Aug. 2 note that Ottawa’s decision to invite so many newcomers during a period when the Bank of Canada was implementing the “most aggressive monetary tightening cycle in a generation” has created a “record imbalance” between housing supply and demand.

Bringing in skilled workers is a key component of Canada’s immigration plan, and Miller stressed that more homebuilders and medical professionals are needed to boost housing and health care. Skilled trades workers are targeted to comprise 60 per cent of the total 500,000 newcomers Canada plans to welcome by 2025, with the rest made up of family members, refugees and those looking to enter on humanitarian grounds.

But the minister said cutting down targets in any one category would mean making some “really difficult” choices.

Some studies suggest Canadians’ support for rising immigration targets is diminishing as high interest rates and housing shortages take a toll. For example, 61 per cent of 1,500 people surveyed by Ottawa-based Abacus Data in July called the country’s immigration target “high,” and 63 per cent said immigration is having a negative impact on housing.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Maybe labour shortages could be addressed by paying people more.

Originally Posted by DFO

Like larger increases to minimum wages? We all know the vitriol trotted out for that one.

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Many of those jobs pay much higher than minimum wage. Just let the market find the cost of labour.

Originally Posted by Red Slinger

When the market alone 'finds' the cost of labour it results in those at the top getting much more and everyone else getting less. Because the market isn't dictated by some magical invisible hand. Rather, it's manipulated by the wealthy. Unless, there are regulations in place, eventually human greed will trump any so-called market forces.

Raising the minimum wage, while helpful to those earning minimum wage, does very little to increase wages overall. We’re all just going to have to accept that there are absolutely no other options available that could help people earn more. I mean it’s not as if we’ve got all sorts of historical and present day data that clearly suggests there’s an option that works.

Best to just admit defeat and live in decline.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/statisti...ning-1.1954989

22K isn't enough to employ the people coming to Canada yearly. Last year we were at 1 050 000 annually, including all tracks to citizenship.

Anyone who has been in the job market since covid can also tell you that a large number of advertisements on the canada job board are ghosts and not really available.

That's not really the correct way to look at it. The labour force doesn't increase by the same amount as the population does for a few reasons:

1) Because of our demographic makeup, we have a lot of retirements among the existing population. More specifically, there are about 1M more 55-64 year olds than there are 10-19 year olds, so in an average year we would expect about 100K more people to leave the labour force than would enter it, and COVID increased that.

2) A decent chunk (about 25-30%) of the population growth is from children, who obviously aren't going to be getting jobs.

So in 2022, when Canada added over 1M people, the unemployment rate actually dropped. It's ticking up again now, but that's due to economics and interest rates. Central banks have been quite clear that they want a softer labour market and that's what they're getting.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by chemgear

Good time to own real estate in Canada. Immigration is certainly not the only reason but it certainly isn't helping.

I don't know about that. Look at every other similar situation in recent history. Housing prices have never done well in the years after rate hikes, even with fast population growth.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/statisti...ning-1.1954989



22K isn't enough to employ the people coming to Canada yearly. Last year we were at 1 050 000 annually, including all tracks to citizenship.

Anyone who has been in the job market since covid can also tell you that a large number of advertisements on the canada job board are ghosts and not really available.

"Telus: Hold our beer....while being on hold."

[Yoho]

Getting closer to majority territory.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1687463404619874310

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Red Slinger

When the market alone 'finds' the cost of labour it results in those at the top getting much more and everyone else getting less. Because the market isn't dictated by some magical invisible hand. Rather, it's manipulated by the wealthy.

And one of the ways they manipulate it when labour gets too expensive for their liking is lobbying government for higher immigration rates and ever-increasing numbers of temporary foreign workers.

Politics have gotten very strange indeed when the left shrugs off systemic, institutionalized measures to suppress the value of low-skilled labour because questioning immigration rates has become coded as right-wing.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

And one of the ways they manipulate it when labour gets too expensive for their liking is lobbying government for higher immigration rates and ever-increasing numbers of temporary foreign workers.

Politics have gotten very strange indeed when the left shrugs off systemic, institutionalized measures to suppress the value of low-skilled labour because questioning immigration rates has become coded as right-wing.

Reducing or even halting immigration doesn’t guarantee that wages will increase.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

Reducing or even halting immigration doesn’t guarantee that wages will increase.

Does it hurt the chances of it happening?

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Does it hurt the chances of it happening?

Does trickle down economic theory hurt the chances of it happening?

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

Does trickle down economic theory hurt the chances of it happening?

It’s interesting to me. How did oil and gas end up with high wages relative to other industries?

At the end of the day the premise that market forces play no role in wages is not correct. It’s true that it’s a fallacy that trickle down economics work but it’s also true that market forces based on required skills drive wages and that the available supply of human capital would be a driver of wages.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

It’s interesting to me. How did oil and gas end up with high wages relative to other industries?

There are a number of factors which contribute to that but high wages with little job security isn’t always a recipe for success.

At the end of the day the premise that market forces play no role in wages is not correct. It’s true that it’s a fallacy that trickle down economics work but it’s also true that market forces based on required skills drive wages and that the available supply of human capital would be a driver of wages.

Market forces do have an impact but if I had to guess I’d say the majority of immigrants aren’t getting jobs based on their skills and training. For the sake of argument let’s agree that stopping immigration could possibly have a short term benefit by reducing the overall supply of labour but since we also live in a time where automation is quickly reducing the need for human labour it would probably be a bandaid solution at best. IMO we need more policies that increase earnings today and maintain that going forward.