Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[Fuzz]

So, some actual near up to date data then:


actual growth dashboard(missing the most recent 1 million)

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...020003-eng.htm


Forecasted growth:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...022015-eng.htm


Age pyramid:
https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-r...d/index-en.htm

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by you&me

Agreed. I posted the same statscan link last night... Why do I feel like Yoho liking my post may have got it dismissed by some posters?

But yeah, it takes some real creative stat cherry-picking to pretzel-up that narrative... You know you're on the right track when two people feel your post warrants a ...

Just to give an additional perspective on Canada's current policies.

The US, which had over 1 million immigrants land in 2022, had a 0.4% population increase in 2022. This is under more relaxed immigration policies with Biden in place and the highest immigration levels since 2016.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/pres...estimates.html

After a historically low rate of change between 2020 and 2021, the U.S. resident population increased by 0.4%, or 1,256,003, to 333,287,557 in 2022, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2022 national and state population estimates and components of change released today.

Net international migration — the number of people moving in and out of the country — added 1,010,923 people between 2021 and 2022 and was the primary driver of growth. This represents 168.8% growth over 2021 totals of 376,029 – an indication that migration patterns are returning to pre-pandemic levels. Positive natural change (births minus deaths) increased the population by 245,080.

“There was a sizeable uptick in population growth last year compared to the prior year’s historically low increase,” said Kristie Wilder, a demographer in the Population Division at the Census Bureau. “A rebound in net international migration, coupled with the largest year-over-year increase in total births since 2007, is behind this increase.”

Canada had 2.7% population growth last year and we have some here claiming this is not a policy problem.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

So, some actual near up to date data then:


actual growth dashboard(missing the most recent 1 million)

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...020003-eng.htm


Forecasted growth:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...022015-eng.htm


Age pyramid:
https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-r...d/index-en.htm

If anything this confirms and shows just how crazy insane our recent immigration policies have gone well above historical projections, seeing at in July 2022 we were still under 39 million and we are now over 40 million, and 2021 would have still been impacted by covid restrictions.

The growth chart you linked has us hitting 40 million by 2025-26...this is a July 2022 growth chart

[2Stonedbirds]

The same people enacting said policies, adding essentially the population of Saskatchewan into Canada every year, claim to look into and do something about a basic crack shack costing a cool half mil.

Mmmhmmm.

[Major Major]

Wrong thread

[PeteMoss]

We need people. We should build more houses and allow in a bunch of people.

Stopping immigration because of a housing shortage is like stopping building cars because we don't have enough roads.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

We need people. We should build more houses and allow in a bunch of people.

Stopping immigration because of a housing shortage is like stopping building cars because we don't have enough roads.

We don't need a new Saskatchewan's worth of people every year though. Especially if the influx massively hurts quality of life. Notice how the government stopped talking about GDP per capita and is just talking about raw GDP increases now? It's because for existing people living here it's actually not a good news story anymore. Our cost of living is increasing without the benefit per capita of the economic gain.

[GirlySports]

Depends on the type of immigration too. People immigrating with a million dollars cash to put down on a house outbidding others is different than refugees. Although there are some rich refugees but they are few.

The international student numbers are also a problem. That's where the hidden money is.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

We need people. We should build more houses and allow in a bunch of people.

Stopping immigration because of a housing shortage is like stopping building cars because we don't have enough roads.

No one has even remotely suggested stopping immigration here. That's quite a strawman.

There is a stark difference between 1990-2020 average level immigration and having the highest population growth as a result of new immigration policies since 1957 which that year itself was an outlier.

Settling back to a 30 year average immigration level or Liberal's previous target is not a drastic call. But doing so would be Trudeau admitting that their new immigration policy is too aggressive and having a negative impact on housing and infrastructure. Multiple major banks are warning of the impending crunch and demand shock.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canada-s...unch-1.1954496

[you&me]

Originally Posted by Firebot

No one has even remotely suggested stopping immigration here. That's quite a strawman.

There is a stark difference between 1990-2020 average level immigration and having the highest population growth as a result of new immigration policies since 1957 which that year itself was an outlier.

Settling back to a 30 year average immigration level or Liberal's previous target is not a drastic call. But doing so would be Trudeau admitting that their new immigration policy is too aggressive and having a negative impact on housing and infrastructure. Multiple major banks are warning of the impending crunch and demand shock.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canada-s...unch-1.1954496

This all boils down to poor timing. Why now? Why - while we have raising rates, supply chain issues, inflation pushing material and labour costs higher, and already exisiting affordability issues - is this the time to jack immigration numbers to near-record rates?

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by you&me

This all boils down to poor timing. Why now? Why - while we have raising rates, supply chain issues, inflation pushing material and labour costs higher, and already exisiting affordability issues - is this the time to jack immigration numbers to near-record rates?

Because we are trying to avoid a population collapse. All rich countries are seeing population growth declining. At some point - they all are going to realize they need a bunch of immigrants or they are going to have issues supporting their population as it ages and you don't have enough people to contribute to programs.

Being a first mover and bringing in the 'best' people is smart before every rich country is trying to bring them all in. Japan is already nearing a point of no-return with their population. Italy is another place with a shrinking population.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/japans-...a-record-rate/
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/17/europ...cmd/index.html

[you&me]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Because we are trying to avoid a population collapse. All rich countries are seeing population growth declining. At some point - they all are going to realize they need a bunch of immigrants or they are going to have issues supporting their population as it ages and you don't have enough people to contribute to programs.

Being a first mover and bringing in the 'best' people is smart before every rich country is trying to bring them all in. Japan is already nearing a point of no-return with their population. Italy is another place with a shrinking population.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/japans-...a-record-rate/
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/17/europ...cmd/index.html

You're talking about generational demographics and at the same time, saying we can't take a breather for a few years? Again, no one's saying zero immigration, but how about not record levels while our hair is already on fire?

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by you&me

You're not really using a graph that ends in 2020 to argue that "Canada's overall rate of population growth is currently at an all-time historical low, even with immigration levels being where they are now."

In reality, Canada's population growth rate, once immigration opened up post pandemic, hit 2.7% in 2022, the highest annual population growth rate on record since 1957.

With supply chain issues, increasing interest rates and already sky-high property prices affecting affordability, there is no reasonable argument that can be made that now is the right time for record high immigration. Immigration rates can be ratcheted back up once the overall housing situation stabilizes through rates, supply chain issues are resolved and building capacity allows.

Isn't increased immigration needed for the supply chain issues though?
It seems that every part from warehousing, truck drivers, delivery drivers, even all the Uber delivery people are heavily reliant on employing recent immigrants.

How do supply chain issues improve without increased immigration?

[you&me]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

Isn't increased immigration needed for the supply chain issues though?
It seems that every part from warehousing, truck drivers, delivery drivers, even all the Uber delivery people are heavily reliant on employing recent immigrants.

How do supply chain issues improve without increased immigration?

Shocking commentary from the realtor

Yes, you're right... The few hundred, or heck, few thousand logistics jobs that are unfilled (is that even a thing?) will only be fixed with a million immigrants a year... having ~400,000 immigrants like we had prior to this post-pandemic ramp up wouldn't due. And no other problems will stem from tripling the rate of immigration.

Again, I don't see anyone saying immigration needs to go to zero... Just maybe that now isn't the right time to run at near-record rates.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by you&me

Shocking commentary from the realtor

Yes, you're right... The few hundred, or heck, few thousand logistics jobs that are unfilled (is that even a thing?) will only be fixed with a million immigrants a year... having ~400,000 immigrants like we had prior to this post-pandemic ramp up wouldn't due. And no other problems will stem from tripling the rate of immigration.

Again, I don't see anyone saying immigration needs to go to zero... Just maybe that now isn't the right time to run at near-record rates.

Again, as someone who is a huge proponent of immigration, we have to acknowledge that at the moment we dont have anywhere for these people to live.

We'd be somewhat doing them a disservice.

[Doctorfever]

Originally Posted by you&me

This all boils down to poor timing. Why now? Why - while we have raising rates, supply chain issues, inflation pushing material and labour costs higher, and already exisiting affordability issues - is this the time to jack immigration numbers to near-record rates?

Don’t forget healthcare. Record immigration numbers are putting a huge strain on our healthcare system.

Edit: the healthcare issues we are facing are getting blamed on the provincial governments when it is the federally regulated immigration numbers that are causing the problem. Once again, we all pay for the bad decisions.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by you&me

Shocking commentary from the realtor

Yes, you're right... The few hundred, or heck, few thousand logistics jobs that are unfilled (is that even a thing?) will only be fixed with a million immigrants a year... having ~400,000 immigrants like we had prior to this post-pandemic ramp up wouldn't due. And no other problems will stem from tripling the rate of immigration.

Again, I don't see anyone saying immigration needs to go to zero... Just maybe that now isn't the right time to run at near-record rates.

I'm not suggesting there's no problems, of course more people puts more strain on housing demand. There's a double edged sword here no doubt.

But you were saying it strains all those other items to like supply chain, when in fact it likely does the opposite.
We need immigrant workers to build more homes, work in lumber mills, transport supplies to building sites etc..
Supply chain issues would be much work without enough immigrants.

Do we have the number wrong and are over immigrating?? Maybe, show me some data to support that.

In general on housing though, it's not Davinder in Surrey who works as a truck driver, who's wife works at Subway and who both drive Uber eats at night and want to buy their first condo in Newton one day that are your real problem.

It's John and Sue who have lived on the Westside of Vancouver for 50 years, bought a house for $100,000 40 years ago that's now worth $15 Million and a few investment properties along the way and now sit on 20-30 Million of equity mortgage free.

As a realtor, I'd selfishly be all for closing immigration. It will decrease supply even more, drive up John & Sue's house values and I'd rather go after that client base anyway. Give me $30M boomer houses to sell all day, I'm not the one who will suffer from your misguided policies.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Firebot

If anything this confirms and shows just how crazy insane our recent immigration policies have gone well above historical projections, seeing at in July 2022 we were still under 39 million and we are now over 40 million, and 2021 would have still been impacted by covid restrictions.

The growth chart you linked has us hitting 40 million by 2025-26...this is a July 2022 growth chart

How much of that is COVID backlogs getting cleared? Up to mid-2023, the 4-year average is about 600K new people per year, which equates to about a 1.55-1.6% increase a year. That's high, but it's not like it's totally out of whack historically. It was increasing about 1.4-1.5% in the few years pre-COVID, was about 1.1-1.2% in the late '00s, and about 1.6% in the late '80s and early '90s.

[flamesfever]

From my right-wing biased perspective, I believe that one of the main reasons the Liberals have been successful in recent elections is the "Wealth Effect" from people thinking they were doing alright because of the increasing house values. Now with higher interest rates causing house prices to go down, the only way we can turn around the slide in prices is to increase the demand, and that is where immigration comes in.

As people have said, the Liberals will set policy to get votes, which is not always in the best interest of our country. Lowering immigration will reduce the demand for housing and bring the demand/supply situation into balance. Sure the prices may go down further, but most rational people think they should.

[chemgear]

https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/cana...port-1.6505627

Canada’s housing shortfall could widen by another 500,000 units within just two years if immigration continues at its current pace, according to a recent report from TD Economics.

In the report, economists Beata Caranci, James Orlando and Rishi Sondhi note that Canada’s population grew by 1.2 million over the past year, as of the second quarter of 2023 — more than double the pace of population growth in 2019 and years prior.

But the economists question whether the “sudden swing in population has gone too far, too fast.”

The National Bank of Canada released a report on Wednesday that echoed those points.

“The federal government’s decision to open the immigration floodgates during the most aggressive monetary tightening cycle in a generation has created a record imbalance between housing supply and demand,” National Bank chief economist Stéfane Marion said in a note to investors.

Even before this “sudden influx” of newcomers, the economists say Canada’s future housing stock was forecast to become less affordable across the country.

He noted, however, that the issues of housing affordability and limited housing supply would exist regardless of the current pace of immigration in Canada, but immigration is likely making things worse.