Calgarypuck Mafia Game Thread

[agulati]

Seb, I don’t agree with this logic of weeding out “bad townie”. It reduces the number of days that the town will have to win this game once the town flip happens. If you don’t agree with the strategy, then for now take WF’s input as noise.

Our goal is to weed out the actual mafia. This is a very suspicious strategy. Almost at the same absurdity as GGG not wanting to vote for new players.

[agulati]

And dealing with the ads, folks, scroll all the way to the bottom of the page and on the left side you will see cp style 2. Change that to 2a, it will fix the ad problem

[Scornfire]

Omfg thank you

[mrkajz44]

Okay - I was able to scoop up a computer here for a bit, so I can do a deeper dive on DropIt's votes. Here's what I've got:

Day 1:
Dissentowner - Vote / Unvote
Bonded - Vote (this vote tied Bonded with agualti with 5 each - Scornfire then voted Bonded afterwards to give him 6 and the ban)

Day 2:
No votes, but said his vote was on GGG - Hammer was a concern here and that was his reason for not voting

Day 3:
SebC - Vote

Day 4:
No votes yet

Summary - After reviewing the votes, I'm no longer as convinced DropIt is an Oiler.

His vote for Dissentowner was very early in Day 1, so it's hard to put a ton of stock into that. Then the vote on Bonded in such a close race makes no sense for an Oiler. His vote moved Bonded back into a tie for the most votes - if DropIt was an Oiler, why would he vote Bonded and put him at risk? I agree it would be good Oiler strategy to sometime vote their own, but at the risk of losing one of them Day 1? I don't buy it. No vote on day 2 seems reasonable to me too as the GGG train was already rolling and he wanted to avoid hammer. It could be seen as suspicious since it's easy to say "I'll vote for GGG" and then not do it, but I think he's being authentic there. Day 3 he didn't move on Crazy, the first vote out of a Flames fan.

When looking at each of these voting actions on their own, I don't think there is enough to say he's a Flames fan, but I see it when looking at everything in aggregate.

[mrkajz44]

Since my suspicious are on SebC, I thought I'd do the same exercise for him:

Day 1:
GGG - Vote / Unvote
Scornfire - Vote
(Also of note here is that I said I was willing to move my vote from agulati to Bonded and SebC objected right away)

Day 2:
GGG - Vote / Unvote
Crazy - Vote

Day 3:
Crazy - Vote

Day 4:
Winnipeg - Vote

Summary - these seems to further confirm my suspicions that SebC is an Oiler.

Both day 1 and 2 he votes for GGG early and then comes off pretty quickly. This would be very good strategy down the road if GGG flipped Oiler, he could say "look I voted for him on day 1 and 2". However - both of those unvotes were so early in the day, I don't really count them as votes at all. I read Scornfire as Flames fan due to him being the final vote to seal Bonded's fate, so I see SebC's vote here as a vote against a Flames fan. The other votes on day 2 and 3 are both for Crazy, another Flames fan. So what I see is basically two "fake" votes on an Oiler to try and potentially cover his tracks later, two votes for a known Flames fan, and one vote for a very likely Flames fan. Not exactly a great voting pattern for a Flames fan.

[mrkajz44]

And since I have a computer now and can view the thread so much earlier - I'm going to continue to drive for my case against SebC.

(Sorry - cannot get the quoting to work properly)

After GGG was banned and showed Oiler, SebC's first two posts were these:

Post - #531

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15
It makes me think that the last Oiler fan is potentially a new player or someone less strategic.

A great reason to not discuss what the smart kill strategy is. A mistake could be made that would help the town immensely.

So HG is trying to figure out why the Oiler's killed who they did in the night phase and Seb jumps in to shut down that talk. As Flames fans, we should always be trying to understand the known Oiler's moves - we have very few of them to go on, so every move made by the Oiler's should be analyzed. Seb's "don't talk about strategy as it will inform mafia" is silly in my eyes - Oiler's already know everything with Fuzz already being outed and killed, so why not talk strategy?

#555

A couple points about me:

- While I did not end up with a vote on GGG, I still think I had a fairly important role in getting him lynched.
- I said that GGG should be lynched Day 4, even if I'm dead. Am I planning to die before he does, and get him off the hook that way? Why, then, would I not fake a freudian slip or something to advance that plan?
- I was aware of the traction that the GGG vote had, and felt a bit guilty for starting it as early as I did in that nothing else really got discussed, thus making it an easy day for mafia to hide their tracks. Disclosing my alternate theory, and the vote to support that, was an attempt to make up for it, and set the game up better going forward.
- If I were troll, would I really want to move off GGG, knowing that he would flip mafia? Knowing that even if he were to survive the day he would be unlikely to make it to the endgame (with me having said that he should not)? Moving off him only made sense because I did not have certainty of his alignment (nor that of crazy_eoj).

So after first telling everyone to not talk strategy, his second post is him explaining why he is not connected to GGG. There was a vote on him early and some talk about him being a suspect, so I can understand why this post might be made, but interesting how he's making points for why he's not connected to GGG rather than use points for how he's acted in a Flames manner.

He finally stops talking about himself in post #588 but asks when its best to do his big reveal on his strategy. This is so odd - has anyone thought "I've got a good theory on who is an Oiler, but instead of sharing it, I'll keep it to myself and just tease it to the group"? It makes no sense to me. Everyone else is sharing their thoughts as they come up - that's what drives discussion and helps flesh out ideas.

So there you have it - his votes don't look very good from a Flames fan perspective, and his actions on Day 3 when there is only one Oiler left don't look very Flames fan to me.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by devo22

why are we talking about a possible endgame? There's still 9 people left, so 3 full days before that happens. I'd rather be looking for the final Oiler now than weed out townies who might not make good endgame decisions.

In the absence of strong evidence, better to vote for possible mafia and probable weak town than possible mafia and probable strong town. We have four lynches. If WinnipegFan is not in your top top four suspects, then fine, defend him. But otherwise, he might as well be gone, today.

"Revenge voter" is a fine persona for a new mafia to adopt where they are unlikely to mistakenly tip their hand, there was the dodgy setting up of GGG's self-hammer, non-vote on Bonded, the (still "incorrect"?) vote on Scornfire... and he can't be the last Oiler?

[DropIt]

Read over the thread again and I keep sitting on WPG, MRK and SebC. Seems the weekend has kind of hit the brakes on this day, but those are still the ones that stick out.

Going to go with SebC after the GGG self kill just seems suspicious to me

[SebC]

Well nothing's happening, I have enough votes on me to be banned at threshold, and tomorrow might be busy, so I guess I'll just go ahead and give my "death post"/final defense. Want to sleep, so this won't necessarily be as thorough as I'd like. Cannot commit to any responses afterwards.

First, why I'm actually not mafia and should not be lynched.

1. The kill on bizaro86. If I'm mafia, there's no mafia votes on Bonded. Killing someone who was not on Bonded makes the game so much harder. If the mod had happened to be someone who was not on Bonded, it would've made the game 6 not on Bonded + 1 mod = 7 very probable villagers vs. 6 remaining players not on Bonded. I would not have done that.

2. Breadcrumbs. It's not much, but when Bonded asked who would win the Conn Smythe. I responded with "If you must ask... ". Which is a reference to the "I moustache you a question" meme, i.e. Bennett. I was attempting to leverage the information without revealing it. We know now scum was privy to at least the Conn Smythe thing, but it's still not confirmed that they knew about Bennett, since Bizaro86 gave that to them (after my post). It's not much, but it's something.

3. Day 1 vote on GGG. Nobody has figured out why I did this, but I told you it was for something in this game. It was because he voted on Hockeyguy15 after saying that we should not vote out experienced players as they would be more useful alive if town. I caught him in a contradiction.

4. Attacking GGG Day 2. I'm not getting as much credit for my role in his lynch as I think I deserve, because I thought it was worth exploring other options and ended up without a vote on him. I'm also not getting enough credit for being able to read how the day would end up. If I were mafia, it would be much easier to stay on GGG at that point.
Because I'm town, I made a point to note that regardless of future events, even if I was night banned, that he'd be a good Day 4 lynch. I wasn't letting him off the hook.

5. Attacking WinnipegFan. His revenge vote was entirely predictable. If I were scum, I wouldn't have targeted him. Instead, I'd be trying to orchestrate a final three that's me, him, and anyone who voted on him. Do not let the Oiler do that, particularly now that I've told him about it. Lynch WinnipegFan before final three.

Next, my legacy if I am lynched.

The kill on bizaro86 gives me reason to suspect that one of the mafia was, in fact, on Bonded, because GGG is a good player and may have realized what I said about what I would've done above. But I am not yet ready to see that as more probable than that they weren't. Four lynches, five players not on Bonded... I'd choose one to trust and lynch the rest. For me, it's Hockeyguy15. I like his aggression vs. GGG. Could be playing the long game, but it's the bet I'm most willing to make. Of course, should you see me as sufficiently exonerated by the above, I would prefer that it be myself. Otherwise, my legacy would be to lynch WinnipegFan, mrkajz, and devo22. You would, of course, gain additional information (though likely not much through votes, as the votes and scum have already happened) which could be cause you to deviate from that. As would I, should I remain in the game.

Well... this day has had nothing to really go on. And I suspect the rest of the day is going to be be dead with all the games on. I'll be around here and there today if anyone has anything earth shattering.

[DropIt]

Some decent response from SebC but nothing really enough to take suspicion off him. All of those points have validity but could easily be even moderately clever Mafia play.

[Hockeyguy15]

I’m back now. I can’t really call anyone out since I wasn’t here either but it would be nice if the people who haven’t voted could come and participate.

[agulati]

My suscpicions for Seb are still the same. It looks like he has enough votes to get banned tonight. I see no reason to hammer him.

I don’t agree with his logic to vote out someone if they are a weak townie. His justification for WF makes sense if the suspicion of him being a mafia is there. Let us not vote on basis of a weak townie though. It switches the numbers away from our benefit.

Stay warm folks!

[devo22]

sorry, haven't been around much this weekend.

Originally Posted by DropIt

With these ads I cant point a finger yet but I would be interested to see in WPG or MRK switched votes from someone onto Agulati after the Bonded train took off

nope, the only ones voting on agulati (or voting at all, that is) after the Bonded train took off were GGG and crazy_eoj. Both WinnipegFan and mrkajz44 voted on agulati only - WF did one of his stupid revenge votes (155), MRK voted on him because of agulati voting for WF shortly after claiming that non-frequent posters are probably town (166). Neither of them switched any votes on day 1 and the only ones who did switch onto agulati from somewhere else were, again, GGG and crazy_eoj. So that's a cold trail.

Originally Posted by SebC

If WinnipegFan is not in your top top four suspects, then fine, defend him. But otherwise, he might as well be gone, today.

believe me, WinnipegFans style of play has irked me a lot and I've been saying as much repeatedly. The thing is that his behaviour just doesn't strike me as an Oiler. He doesn't post at all at the beginning of the game, drawing attention to him. He constantly revenge votes and picks stupid fights, drawing attention to him again. I'm sure GGG would have instructed him differently ... or maybe that's exactly what he wants us to believe, who knows. I'll have to re-read some stuff.



has SebC explained his logic with "he'd be a good day 4 lynch" already? Something I'd be curious about. A lot of his defense is, in my opinion, pretty solid, but his voting patterns still don't sit too well with me.


I don't have to work tomorrow and I'm watching SB a bit, so I'll be still around for an hour or two.

[DropIt]

Vote SebC

[DropIt]

At this point I'm getting a vote in. Was waiting to see if anything else developed but really haven't seen too much.

[Scornfire]

I'm okay with the current vote, I don't really have any competing theories :/
Weekend game days are just rough, I had very little opportunity or motivation to go back through everything yet again.

[Scornfire]

GGG raised some decent points and I have my own looping theory (I actually had a dream about this -_- ) about the Trolls potentially risking a vote on Bonded since I was vocally defending him before DropIt actually voted. Flames fans were generally in agreement that we should just get a lynch day 1, there's not really any reason for a forced tie after threshold was met, it makes decent sense strategically for the Trolls since there's a high likelihood I'm empathizing with the fellow rookie and will vote the other way.

The slip-up HG points out in post #717 has gone unaddressed, as did most of his points in his prior/longer post. As even a basic courtesy I think we should all be responding to accusations against us at this stage, to kind of just go the whole day without ever responding to HG doesn't look good to me. Will likely be where I look if Sebc flips flame tomorrow.

[Scornfire]

HG* raised some decent points, laff. Have another beer

[Scornfire]

Vote: DropIt