[News] Flames offersheet O'Reilly UPDATE: Avs match

[Frank MetaMusil]

Originally Posted by moon

I thought it was also based on his dad getting involved and talk about him and Duchene not getting along last year before the holdout. Plus him wanting to come here doesn't nullify reasons why people think he is a cancer because of this holdout.

So based on this criteria, the Flames ended up drafting a cancer in Erixon anyway, except it was 10 spots ahead of O'Reilly.

[Kaine]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

that's what the Leafs tried with Kessel, look how well that turned out

Big difference between a first and a third and 2 first +

I'll give you that tho it's still a risk.

[To Be Quite Honest]

I think this a great if he turns out to be a 60+ pt player or more per year!

[burnitdown]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

I understand perfectly what a qualifying offer is, but no team is bound to limit themselves to this option. Again, yes, qualifying a player prevents them from becoming a UFA on July 1, 2014. Signing a 3 year deal at $5M per will also prevent him from becoming a UFA.

What benefit does ROR get by holding out on the Flames? He won't get $6.5M in free agency, so the only reason why he'd hold out is to screw over the Flames. Is that really going to happen?

It's been explained by a couple people now how it wouldn't make any sense for him to sign a 3 year $5 offer when he could just become a UFA and hold all the cards. Sure, he might still sign with us...but with another 29 teams bidding for his services, that 3 year offer may now need to go up in dollars or length cause somehow will throw a huge offer out there.

You're basically saying that you likely wouldn't qualify him as that's crazy money (unless he performs REALLY well)...and you're hopeful he'll "be nice" and sign here and not test the UFA waters to see if it's the best offer. You blindly trust him...his actions leave me quite a bit more skeptical that he'll potentially forego way more money just cause he doesn't want to screw us.

Either way, moving on. We're just going in circles now. I do think this is a positive move for the next two years though!

[Captain_Obvious]

Originally Posted by Poe969

I didn't say not to make any moves, but I don't think they should have made this one. This clearly shows they're in the "win now" mode, they want a #1 center to play with Iggy. .

Adding a 22 year old centre who's one of the top young defensive centres in the league is a move made with regard for the future. It makes us better now, and gives us one of the best young centres in the league moving forward.

You're far too stuck up on terminology. There are only 30 No.1 centres in the league.

Getting them is next to impossible.

Adding one of the best young centres just outside of that group is nothing but a positive for us.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

that's what the Leafs tried with Kessel, look how well that turned out

The Flames have already played a large part of this season. It's become obvious that we aren't going to outsuck Columbus, NYI, Buffalo, Florida, etc... In other words, we already know our pick is very unlikely to be a top 5, especially if we add a great player like O'Reilly. The Leafs also traded 2 #1 picks.

[BigFlameDog]

Originally Posted by blankall

In 2012, here were the odds of winning the lottery:

25.0% - Columbus Blue Jackets - 65 points
18.8% - Edmonton Oilers - 74 points
14.2% - Montreal Canadiens - 78 points
10.7% - New York Islanders - 79 points
8.1% - Toronto Maple Leafs - 80 points
6.2% - Anaheim Ducks - 80 points
4.7% - Minnesota Wild - 81 points
3.6% - Carolina Hurricanes - 82 points
2.7% - Winnipeg Jets - 84 points
2.1% - Tampa Bay Lightning - 84 points
1.5% - Washington Capitals (from Colorado) - 88 points
1.1% - Buffalo Sabres - 89 points
0.8% - Dallas Stars - 89 points
0.5% - Calgary Flames - 90 points

The Flames probably were going to finish in that 4.7 to .5% range. Sorry, you don't give up on the chance to acquire a player like O'Reilly for those odds.

But am I remembering wrong...even if the Flames won that lottery they could only move up x places...they could never get number 1.

[Zarley]

Originally Posted by flylock shox

In fairness, I don't know much about O'Reilly, and if he proves to have top line (or even strong second line) center who re-ups with the Flames for fair value, then this is a good move.

What concerns me more is what this means for where the organization is heading, i.e., flogging the same mules for as long as possible. This move suggests to me the Flames will not be renting out Iginla nor trading any other assets at the deadline, leaving the without a top round pick in this draft. It also suggests to me they will be less able to sign top free agents like Getzlaf in the off season due to salary cap constraints (assuming Getzlaf is available).

What are the odds out of 10 that O'Reilly can be a competent NHL first line center? Genuinely curious since I've never really watched the guy.

The reason this is a great move (in my opinion) is that it helps the Flames in the short term by providing a guy that can slot in on the first line immediately, and it has the potential for long term benefit. If this offer sheet was for a 30 year old then I would agree with you, but it adds significantly to our pool of young talent without giving up a lot. If this goes through and the Flames continue to stink it up, the option of trading at the deadline is still there.

I think that O'Reilly's ceiling is a 2nd line centre at worst (so a first liner on the Flames!), with the potential to be a franchise first line centre.

[EddyBeers]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

I understand perfectly what a qualifying offer is, but no team is bound to limit themselves to this option. Again, yes, qualifying a player prevents them from becoming a UFA on July 1, 2014. Signing a 3 year deal at $5M per will also prevent him from becoming a UFA.

What benefit does ROR get by holding out on the Flames? He won't get $6.5M in free agency, so the only reason why he'd hold out is to screw over the Flames. Is that really going to happen?

Again wrong, the only reason he would not sign the 3 year deal is because he can become a UFA and potentially sign the same deal with any team including the Flames or perhaps get a more lucrative deal. Or he bets on the Flames qualifying him at 6.5 million dollars. The only way for sure that he signs your 3 year 15 million dollar deal (outside of being a good guy) is if he does not think he can get the same deal on the open market, in which case the Flames are likely overpaying anyway.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by BigFlameDog

But am I remembering wrong...even if the Flames won that lottery they could only move up x places...they could never get number 1.

That has changed for this year, and going forward. Now, if you win the lottery, you pick First.

[TurnedTheCorner]

Originally Posted by blankall

In 2012, here were the odds of winning the lottery:

25.0% - Columbus Blue Jackets - 65 points
18.8% - Edmonton Oilers - 74 points
14.2% - Montreal Canadiens - 78 points
10.7% - New York Islanders - 79 points
8.1% - Toronto Maple Leafs - 80 points
6.2% - Anaheim Ducks - 80 points
4.7% - Minnesota Wild - 81 points
3.6% - Carolina Hurricanes - 82 points
2.7% - Winnipeg Jets - 84 points
2.1% - Tampa Bay Lightning - 84 points
1.5% - Washington Capitals (from Colorado) - 88 points
1.1% - Buffalo Sabres - 89 points
0.8% - Dallas Stars - 89 points
0.5% - Calgary Flames - 90 points

The Flames probably were going to finish in that 4.7 to .5% range. Sorry, you don't give up on the chance to acquire a player like O'Reilly for those odds.

So it's still a lottery pick. I didn't say that the odds meant O'Reilly should not be pursued. I didn't suggest that the Flames have a great shot at getting the first overall pick at the draft. I said that non-playoff teams get lottery picks.

[d_phaneuf]

Originally Posted by BigFlameDog

But am I remembering wrong...even if the Flames won that lottery they could only move up x places...they could never get number 1.

in the past yes, you could only move up 4 spots

now if you win the lottery you go up to number 1

[JazzyFlame]

Originally Posted by Kaine

Big difference between a first and a third and 2 first +

I'll give you that tho it's still a risk.

The first on its own is a greater risk

[killer_carlson]

I dont see Oreilly as a problem in the room for holding out because I consider what the Avs gave to Stastny, and consider O'Reilly a better player with a brighter future.I would be ticked off too if I was offered half of a teammate that I play more consistant than.

THat said, I see the Avs matching, but I hope they don't.

I am shocked, but surprised, and suspect we will see a few more moves soon (Cammalerri)

[TurnedTheCorner]

Originally Posted by BigFlameDog

But am I remembering wrong...even if the Flames won that lottery they could only move up x places...they could never get number 1.

That changed in the new CBA. Winner gets #1 overall.

[Henry Fool]

Originally Posted by ricosuave

its funny, the team gets lambasted for not making moves

the team gets lambasted for making moves.

i have more faith in weisbrod et al that they do know what they are getting

That's an opportunity for a cheap Cervenka joke, but obviously there's no doubt that they've gone over all these questions and still thought that the price is worth it.

I do however wonder about one thing. Given that they seem to think that the Flames are a potential playoff team (which I disagree with), I wonder if they've underestimated how high in the draft they're likely to go without O'Reilly. If they overestimate the potential of their team, which I think they do, it might lead them to miscalculate the worth of their first round pick.

[Frank MetaMusil]

The biggest thing for me is the Flames didn't draft this guy. Without green text, that's HUGE upside. Sad to say, but for those wanting Calgary to draft their own next franchise player, it hasn't been the case since the 80's.

[sureLoss]

Pierre LeBrun ‏@Real_ESPNLeBrun I canvassed execs on 5 NHL teams. 4 believed Colorado would match, 1 figured Avs would take the picks...

[blankall]

Originally Posted by BigFlameDog

But am I remembering wrong...even if the Flames won that lottery they could only move up x places...they could never get number 1.

Prior to this year. The 4 spot move restriction has been removed under the new CBA.

Even so, O'Reilly is probably the equivalent to a 3-5 overall pick. And we are getting a guarantee in that we know he's killed it at the NHL level, as oppossed to the plethora of top 3 picks that have become Pat Faloon.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by burnitdown

It's been explained by a couple people now how it wouldn't make any sense for him to sign a 3 year $5 offer when he could just become a UFA and hold all the cards. Sure, he might still sign with us...but with another 29 teams bidding for his services, that 3 year offer may now need to go up in dollars or length cause somehow will throw a huge offer out there.

You're basically saying that you likely wouldn't qualify him as that's crazy money (unless he performs REALLY well)...and you're hopeful he'll "be nice" and sign here and not test the UFA waters to see if it's the best offer. You blindly trust him...his actions leave me quite a bit more skeptical that he'll potentially forego way more money just cause he doesn't want to screw us.

Either way, moving on. We're just going in circles now. I do think this is a positive move for the next two years though!

I don't blindly trust him, but there is a reason why Feaster offered him this contract. They have an idea of his intent, and obviously they've been talking to him.

You say the benefit of ROR holding out is so he gets UFA money, which will be sub $6.5M. Why can't the Flames sign him for this money, or any team that he may be on in 2 years time?

Again, I don't understand the benefit here for O'Reilly besides to be a dick. It's like you have a belief that everything that can go bad will go bad for the Flames.

My prediction is that he signs a 3 year deal on July 1 this year.