Russia invades Ukraine

[karl262]

Originally Posted by Pointman

A major public address by Putin is announced. It is supposed to happen within 3-4 hours from the time of this post.

I'm hearing Putin canceled his address?

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by Pointman

A major public address by Putin is announced. It is supposed to happen within 3-4 hours from the time of this post.

It's 22:38 in Moscow right now and still no appearance by Putin. Something similar happened with his February address except for that people had to wait for merely a couple of hours.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by karl262

I'm hearing Putin canceled his address?

It hasn't been cancelled, it just isn't happening yet and nobody is quite sure whether it will eventually happen.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

You don't understand that Russia is the one who burned the brotherhood to the ground?

To be fair, no. It was Ukrainians who said we want to go West, join EU, join NATO. Russia tried to keep Ukraine within its sphere and while doing so have went way over the line to put it mildly. Still, it's Ukraine who broke away, not Russia who pushed Ukraine away.

[Ozy_Flame]

Russia pushed Ukraine away on many occasions. Look no further than 2014, then continue to go back. They're the abusive bully, so yes they did push Ukraine away.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Pointman

To be fair, no. It was Ukrainians who said we want to go West, join EU, join NATO. Russia tried to keep Ukraine within its sphere and while doing so have went way over the line to put it mildly. Still, it's Ukraine who broke away, not Russia who pushed Ukraine away.

I admittedly don't know the full history of the what's where's and why's of that situation, but I strongly suspect Russia wasn't really an innocent victim in it...but it doesn't matter, it doesn't give Russia the right to it. There is no legal standing for breaking a "brotherhood". The legitimate response is "to bad, so sad, go away".

[Pointman]

Ok, it's 23:00 now. The nation was told that the leader is going to make a major announcement "this evening" and then nothing happened. Such announcements are usually pre-recorded so I wonder if they had a speech filmed but decided not to show it yet. Or maybe Putin himself said he's going to make a statement and then retracted. You can tell Russians are left in the dark a bit. It probably further proves that there's no plan, no vision and no direction at the top.

[Scorch]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1572293567866982400

[calumniate]

This is making me a little nervous

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I admittedly don't know the full history of the what's where's and why's of that situation, but I strongly suspect Russia wasn't really an innocent victim in it...but it doesn't matter, it doesn't give Russia the right to it. There is no legal standing for breaking a "brotherhood". The legitimate response is "to bad, so sad, go away".

You are right, there's no legal standing for breaking a brotherhood. My point, which I guess I failed to articulate, is that from Ukranian standpoint it doesn't make much sense to die while trying to take back the land that was initially handed to them as a sign of brotherhood with Russians. You could make a case that Ukraine has some legal right to get Crimea, I kinda get that. I don't quite get why die for it though. Unlike Donbass, Kyiv or Kherson, Crimea in no way should be considered as a part of Ukrainian " holy motherland" that should be taken back at all costs. That would be like Germany illegally occupying Kaliningrad and Russians trying to fight it back. I would probably be like "Oh well, it should have been a Germany town all the way, let it go".

[nik-]

"Breaking brotherhood" sounds an awful lot like trying to improve as a nation. Russia is a crab in a bucket.

[NuclearFart]

Originally Posted by Pointman

To be fair, no. It was Ukrainians who said we want to go West, join EU, join NATO. Russia tried to keep Ukraine within its sphere and while doing so have went way over the line to put it mildly. Still, it's Ukraine who broke away, not Russia who pushed Ukraine away.

Not trying to be insulting, but you sound like an abusive husband who cannot comprehend why the wife wants a divorce.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by NuclearFart

Not trying to be insulting, but you sound like an abusive husband who cannot comprehend why the wife wants a divorce.

I perfectly understand why they want a divorce. I would like to join The West myself. My children were born in Houston and have US citizenship. I would have immigrated to Canada if I could score enough on Express Entry. If Russia isn't locked up, I will likely leave for Israel next summer.. If I was Ukrainian president, I would say "Screw Russia, we are joining EU". I would not order my troops to take Crimea back though. That would be like getting a divorce from an abusive husband and then risk your life while trying to get back a jewelry he once gifted you. And that jewelry has something like "a sign for our eternal love and my unlimited trust in you" written on it.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by nik-

"Breaking brotherhood" sounds an awful lot like trying to improve as a nation. Russia is a crab in a bucket.

That's perfectly fair comparison.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Russia pushed Ukraine away on many occasions. Look no further than 2014, then continue to go back. They're the abusive bully, so yes they did push Ukraine away.

Nope. In 2014 Ukraine toppled its president and declared that they want to join EU and NATO. They wanted to break away from Russian influence and went as far, as overthrowing its pro-russian yet elected president. The west was actually heavily involved in the coup, although admittedly the country in general did want to "live like the westerners". In return Russia seized Crimea and ignited a proxy war in the east. Russia is an abusive bully for sure, but initially it was Ukraine that decided to go West.

[Pointman]

Now they say that Putin's speech is filmed already and will be aired tomorrow morning, that is roughly 9 hours away from now.

[nik-]

Probably wants to escape to his Black Sea palace before it airs.

[Firebot]

The mainstream news channels extremely slow to pick up what is happening.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1572250774700425216

For those who may recall, she tried to resign at the start of the war but Putin told her no. She stayed on the condition that Russia would not call for a full mobilization.

Now that this is happening, her condition to stay is no longer met and she has allegedly provided her resignation.

She is the glue that held Russia's economy together and why Russia didn't suddenly collapse like a house of cards when sanctions were done early on.

The fact that Putin actually wants to go all in on Ukraine and going for broke is a disastrous sign. He is basically losing everything he has, and has surely secured his personal demise now.

Full mobilization was the one thing he absolutely could not do (outside of nukes) without committing political suicide, and he is about to do it.

The question is, will he be overthrown in short order, or will he start lunging nukes knowing his utter desperation?

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by Pointman

Nope. In 2014 Ukraine toppled its president and declared that they want to join EU and NATO. They wanted to break away from Russian influence and went as far, as overthrowing its pro-russian yet elected president. The west was actually heavily involved in the coup, although admittedly the country in general did want to "live like the westerners". In return Russia seized Crimea and ignited a proxy war in the east. Russia is an abusive bully for sure, but initially it was Ukraine that decided to go West.

So the abused wanted to leave, declared their intentions, for the car ready, and Russia reacted violently.

Explain again how Russia didn't push Ukraine away and didn't react as poorly as an abusive bully could have?

[Leeman4Gilmour]

A little article on mobilization;

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...h=2929535450e7


Pointman, would you be one of these millions?;

Mobilization could make military service compulsory for millions of Russians who, at present, easily can avoid the armed forces’ twice-a-year draft. In theory, mobilization could swell the Russian army’s ranks by millions.

For others, this is kind of the crux of the article;

The main effects of mobilization would be to clog up the army’s fragile home garrisons, undermine the legitimacy of Putin and his regime, deplete the federal treasury and—in the best case—feed into Ukraine a lot of untrained, under-equipped and poorly led men who, more likely that not, quickly would surrender, desert or die.

Even a successful mobilization would be too late. “It takes months and months to turn civilians into soldiers,” Martin explained. “Russia needs soldiers yesterday, not in six months.”

From what I read the sham referendum's to annex Russian controlled territories is just to make escalation to war "legit" should any Ukranian attack happen on that soil.

Putin is a mad dog. Backed into a corner. I also am nervous about where this is going.