Sometimes I wonder if it would be better if there were 4 wild card spots MLB-wide instead of 2 per league. Wouldn't help the Jays in this case, though.
I have a theory that the Jays' standard deviation on runs scored is wide. Their run differential seems to have come in blowout games. When they have confidence they hit hard. When they don't, there are almost no runs scored and that's shown the past couple weeks. They'll get there over time and as they mature, but this is truly the year everything but the bullpen seems to have taken significant leaps enough to be championship contenders. It will really hurt seeing their bats not being able to pick it up at the end.
Well this is too true sadly. Like 100% true. Jays really are too much feast or famine. Almost no in between.
What a ####ty situation. All these good to great numbers/advanced stats, potentially nothing of reward for it.
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Sometimes I wonder if it would be better if there were 4 wild card spots MLB-wide instead of 2 per league. Wouldn't help the Jays in this case, though.
Why is expanding the playoff such a sacrilegious idea in baseball? It just seems so silly to me to play over 160 regular season games to mostly empty stadiums while only 8 teams make the real playoffs, and play a shorten first round at that. Wouldn't it make more sense to chop off some of those meaningless regular season games for most teams and give them a shot at playoff action with far greater fan engagement and revenue for owners?
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Why is expanding the playoff such a sacrilegious idea in baseball? It just seems so silly to me to play over 160 regular season games to mostly empty stadiums while only 8 teams make the real playoffs, and play a shorten first round at that. Wouldn't it make more sense to chop off some of those meaningless regular season games for most teams and give them a shot at playoff action with far greater fan engagement and revenue for owners?
Yes it would make too much god damned sense.
MLB does nothing that makes sense. The last sport to invoke replay review and it was terribly managed from the start.
The divisions are horribly arranged.
The AL/NL rule differences are….huh?
Then to top it off you have had a clear pattern of umpire deficiency and despite the proven tech to rectify it have done…absolutley nothing.
They continue to tarnish and dilute their game and honestly if I wasn’t a lifelong hardcore dedicated for life fan, I’d have a hard time seeing how a new fan of the sport could accept these deficiencies.
Why is expanding the playoff such a sacrilegious idea in baseball? It just seems so silly to me to play over 160 regular season games to mostly empty stadiums while only 8 teams make the real playoffs, and play a shorten first round at that. Wouldn't it make more sense to chop off some of those meaningless regular season games for most teams and give them a shot at playoff action with far greater fan engagement and revenue for owners?
I honestly thought after they expanded the playoff in 2020 they would continue it in the future.
It was so much fun having an extra 3 game series vs. 1 wildcard game, let alone the fact more teams made it.
Normally once owners taste that sweet sweet playoff money they're hooked. Suppose if there is one league stuck in its ways due to 'tradition' its baseball, but not like the current Wild Card format has been around very long or was steeped in tradition itself.
Why is expanding the playoff such a sacrilegious idea in baseball? It just seems so silly to me to play over 160 regular season games to mostly empty stadiums while only 8 teams make the real playoffs, and play a shorten first round at that. Wouldn't it make more sense to chop off some of those meaningless regular season games for most teams and give them a shot at playoff action with far greater fan engagement and revenue for owners?
I'm actually a fan of the smaller playoff pool because it's much more likely a deserving team will win. Baseball is so random that if you let in half the league with expanded playoffs, any team could get hot at the right time and end up winning it all. That's not to say non-deserving teams don't win (Kansas City comes to mind), but the smaller pool of playoff teams makes it much less likely.
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Seems like the realistic path is a sweep of the Orioles, plus we get some help along the way.
Looking at the 538 Elo ratings, it seems like the Jays are the only team that "deserve" to make the playoffs this year that will likely miss. So is the playoff format really that bad then? It just sucks for the Jays to be on the short end of the stick.
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Seems like the realistic path is a sweep of the Orioles, plus we get some help along the way.
Looking at the 538 Elo ratings, it seems like the Jays are the only team that "deserve" to make the playoffs this year that will likely miss. So is the playoff format really that bad then? It just sucks for the Jays to be on the short end of the stick.
I don't think the playoff format is bad per se. But the Division strength imbalance this year might not show up there. If the format was to have all 15 teams in each league play similar schedules and the top 5 teams make it in, than a team like the White Sox may not have rated as high, and the Mariners might normalize their record to be a bit more in line with their run differential.
One reason why I think MLB likes a long season and fewer playoff teams is that is does give it's larger markets an advantage. So the Yankees and Dodgers most years should make the playoffs, and because they don't have to play as many rounds it up's the odds of a larger market being in the LCS and World Series. If the World Series ends up as Toronto vs. Milwaukee or even Tampa vs. Milwaukee it's likley not drawing much interest. Whereas the Dodgers or Yankees would at least draw a large amount of regional interest in a large market if they get that far.
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Seems like the realistic path is a sweep of the Orioles, plus we get some help along the way.
Looking at the 538 Elo ratings, it seems like the Jays are the only team that "deserve" to make the playoffs this year that will likely miss. So is the playoff format really that bad then? It just sucks for the Jays to be on the short end of the stick.
The Dodgers have 103 wins, 2nd most in baseball by a wide margin.
They are very likely going to have to play a 1 game wildcard game to decide their fate.
It’s really broken IMO
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The Dodgers have 103 wins, 2nd most in baseball by a wide margin.
They are very likely going to have to play a 1 game wildcard game to decide their fate.
It’s really broken IMO
Exactly, the Dodgers shouldn't have their entire season riding on winning a 1 game "playoff". At a bare minimum it should be a three game series.
As for the Jays situation it's nothing new the division they are in and having to fight tooth and nail to try and make the playoffs. Sure they have a high run differential but it's clear that they haven't gotten the support in close games when it matters. If the Jays can't manage to get a top 3 record in their own division do they really "deserve" to be in the playoffs?
So, just looking at some stats on Ray and I'm not very happy with the Jays utilization of him yesterday.
First, the guy has a 6+ ERA this year against the Yankees and a 2+ ERA against the rest of MLB
Second, his numbers balloon ridiculously the third time through the order. (.900+ OPS)
I know he is your straight up ace, but with those numbers they honestly should have considered not even using him against the Yankees at all. But they did, so fair enough, he's the ace, I get it. However, at that point they should not have kept him in the third time through the order.
I mean come on, it's right there in black and white. He gets to the third time through the order and the Jays are up 2-1 in the 6th, they leave him in and he gets rocked for three fricken home runs and 4 runs. Leaves down 5-2.
It's just idiotic IMO. They were playing with fire right from the get go, but they were able to not get burned and made it through 5 innings with the lead. Took it too far and got scorched.
This isn't hindsight either, it's right there at the top of this post. A whole season worth of data. This team needs to be managed better.
Sorry, but I think you are Monday morning QBing here.
Going into the 6th inning, Ray had retired 12 in a row (and he got the first out of the 6th too, so 13 in a row at that point). You really think it would have been a popular move to take him out because of his 3rd through the order numbers? Think about how that went over in TB in the playoffs last year (I think it was last year??) There is an argument to make that he should have been taken out after the back to back home runs and the walk, but anything before that is just revisionist history.
Also, the problem with taking out Ray after 5 innings - is the guy you are replacing him with better than Ray for that one inning? Keep in mind you have to now bullpen 4 innings instead of likely only 3 or less. Given the bullpen options, that's no slam dunk.
If you can't trust your ace to keep rolling in a nearly "must win" game, then what are you really doing?
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So, just looking at some stats on Ray and I'm not very happy with the Jays utilization of him yesterday.
First, the guy has a 6+ ERA this year against the Yankees and a 2+ ERA against the rest of MLB
Second, his numbers balloon ridiculously the third time through the order. (.900+ OPS)
I know he is your straight up ace, but with those numbers they honestly should have considered not even using him against the Yankees at all. But they did, so fair enough, he's the ace, I get it. However, at that point they should not have kept him in the third time through the order.
I mean come on, it's right there in black and white. He gets to the third time through the order and the Jays are up 2-1 in the 6th, they leave him in and he gets rocked for three fricken home runs and 4 runs. Leaves down 5-2.
It's just idiotic IMO. They were playing with fire right from the get go, but they were able to not get burned and made it through 5 innings with the lead. Took it too far and got scorched.
This isn't hindsight either, it's right there at the top of this post. A whole season worth of data. This team needs to be managed better.
Yup, in a must win game they left Ray in way longer than they should have. I probably wouldn't have pulled him to start the inning but after giving up the home run to tie it you have to at least consider pulling him. After the second there was no excuse you have to get him out of there. But it gets even worse when you consider he's given up 2 and put a guy on first yet is still left to keep pitching.
Sorry, but I think you are Monday morning QBing here.
Going into the 6th inning, Ray had retired 12 in a row (and he got the first out of the 6th too, so 13 in a row at that point). You really think it would have been a popular move to take him out because of his 3rd through the order numbers? Think about how that went over in TB in the playoffs last year (I think it was last year??) There is an argument to make that he should have been taken out after the back to back home runs and the walk, but anything before that is just revisionist history.
Also, the problem with taking out Ray after 5 innings - is the guy you are replacing him with better than Ray for that one inning? Keep in mind you have to now bullpen 4 innings instead of likely only 3 or less. Given the bullpen options, that's no slam dunk.
If you can't trust your ace to keep rolling in a nearly "must win" game, then what are you really doing?
It's not Monday morning quarterbacking when the numbers show they were living on borrowed time with Ray pitching. Odds were VERY good he was going to get rocked the longer he stayed in there.
The guy has a 6+ ERA against the Yankees and .900+ OPS the third time through the order.
If he had good numbers against the Yankees and his OPS didn't balloon like that the 3rd time through and I was complaining, THAT would be using hindsight.
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It's not Monday morning quarterbacking when the numbers show they were living on borrowed time with Ray pitching. Odds were VERY good he was going to get rocked the longer he stayed in there.
The guy has a 6+ ERA against the Yankees and .900+ OPS the third time through the order.
If he had good numbers against the Yankees and his OPS didn't balloon like that the 3rd time through and I was complaining, THAT would be using hindsight.
This is the definition of Monday morning QBing - you are seeing the results and then basing a past decision off that.
You think it would have been a good call to take Cy Young candidate Ray out after sitting down 12 straight and put in someone like Richards or Pearson? Maybe Mayza (who just blew a save)? I just don't see it as reasonable at the time. After the back to back home runs, yes, but never before that.
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