Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[Slava]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Whether you like him or not, Trudeau is being honest when he says that housing costs are largely outside the jurisdiction of the federal government. No government, Liberal, Conservative, or NDP can solve this issue at the federal level.

These are the concrete actions that would have a real and discernable effect in making housing more affordable:

- Significantly increase housing supply
- Increase density of housing developments
- Add more subsidized public housing
- Reduce the number of low-density single-family homes being approved and increase multi-family options (high rise condos, town houses, midrise apartment buildings, etc.)
- Solve the "missing middle" problem
- Ban short-term rental homes (i.e. AirBnB) or have punitively high property taxes for these types of non-resident housing to make them non-viable as money-making schemes

Each of these options fall under the jurisdiction of local municipal governments, not the feds. And all of them would be bitterly opposed by home-owning boomers because it would reduce the value of their most important asset ("F you got mine"). It would be political suicide for a local mayor and council to enact these policies on a scale that would result in any meaningful change in housing affordability for younger Canadians. So instead we get inadequate half-measures like making borrowing money for a mortgage easier which only results in housing prices being inflated even further.

Lol, easy dunk on the boomers, and I'm not one. But, out of curiosity, how many younger homeowners would be super pumped about their home value dropping by say 30%?

That's the real issue here. People are in favour of affordable housing and reducing the cost of housing in theory. but, when their property is about to decline significantly, and maybe their no longer qualifying for financing or just burned a couple hundred grand they're not going to be thrilled.

And honestly, the impact economically is going to be devastating. It's not like everything else stays the same and suddenly a lot more people can afford homes.

[OldDutch]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Whether you like him or not, Trudeau is being honest when he says that housing costs are largely outside the jurisdiction of the federal government.

I think a better term is politically convenient, not honest. He’s not an honest person.

[PeteMoss]

I think the odds that housing pricing are going to decrease in any material amounts are slim even if we did start building like madmen.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Slava

Lol, easy dunk on the boomers, and I'm not one. But, out of curiosity, how many younger homeowners would be super pumped about their home value dropping by say 30%?

That's the real issue here. People are in favour of affordable housing and reducing the cost of housing in theory. but, when their property is about to decline significantly, and maybe their no longer qualifying for financing or just burned a couple hundred grand they're not going to be thrilled.

And honestly, the impact economically is going to be devastating. It's not like everything else stays the same and suddenly a lot more people can afford homes.

It would suck if you wanted to sell for some reason, which is likely a much bigger issues for older homeowners than younger ones.

With no intention to sell and everything else fairly stable, I can honestly say I do not give a #### what my home is worth.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

It would suck if you wanted to sell for some reason, which is likely a much bigger issues for older homeowners than younger ones.

With no intention to sell and everything else fairly stable, I can honestly say I do not give a #### what my home is worth.

Sure, but it's not only in that case. People borrow against the equity to start businesses all the time. If your equity disappears, that's out the window. And for a lot of younger homeowners the value does matter if you need to renew the mortgage. Who's giving you $400k on a property that is now worth $350k?

And of course...peoples circumstances in life change. There are plenty of reasons people need to sell homes, and it's not just sheer greed and cashing out.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

I would be fine if my home value took a nosedive too... the realistic problem though is for people who are mortgaged at the higher amount on a variable rate, or even a fixed rate that will have to be redone in the next few years, and if their house price drops they'll have little to no equity. So if you can't afford the higher interest rate loan renewal, and you can't sell...

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

I would be fine if my home value took a nosedive too... the realistic problem though is for people who are mortgaged at the higher amount on a variable rate, or even a fixed rate that will have to be redone in the next few years, and if their house price drops they'll have little to no equity. So if you can't afford the higher interest rate loan renewal, and you can't sell...

I think there is a large percentage of people that don’t even realize they would not qualify for the current mortgage they are in now at these rates.

The banks know this and will not give out sweat heart deals if they is zero competition.

[iggy_oi]

I’d be interested to hear some takes on how if people who don’t currently earn enough to own a home despite working full time or more hours for extremely profitable companies made more money that it would be a bad thing for housing affordability.

Not the be all end all solution obviously but I’m having a hard time figuring why some people appear to be opposed to that sort of thing.

[GirlySports]

The fact that houses are selling at much higher prices than assessed is a problem. Sure we don't want to pay more property taxes but the large discrepancy creates problems.

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by Yoho

Get him out yesterday. The polls will only get worse for them as goes the economy.
I think he will have to call an early election and try more games to cling to power.

Alberta gains 3 new federal seats. BC and Ontario each gain 1. But this takes effect April 2024 at the earliest. An early election would advantageous for the Liberals for this reason too.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmon...eats-1.6921760

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

I think the odds that housing pricing are going to decrease in any material amounts are slim even if we did start building like madmen.

Yeah, it's more likely it'll follow the historical trends that we saw in similar situations (early '80s, early '90s, '08-'09 to a lesser extent). Right now we're probably near peak unaffordability because of interest rate hikes. But with higher rates there will likely be an economic downturn (if it hasn't started already) and a softening of prices. They won't necessarily go down drastically, but slight drops or stagnant prices coupled with inflation will erode Real Property prices over time. That, coupled with an inevitable reduction in interest rates will improve affordability.

At least that's what happened in the past rate-hiking scenarios. In the early '80s the mortgage payment based on the median home price would have required over 70% of the median income to cover, but within a few years it was below 40%. Then the same thing happened in 1990, where it was at 60%, before dropping into the 30-40% range over time. And now it's back up into the 60-70% range, and it will likely drop again.

[Locke]

I dont really know what the Liberals can do to bring housing costs down.

The only thing I can think of off the top of my head would be to scrap the Carbon Tax entirely to try and bring the cost of materials and their transportation down...but even that is a faulty idea.

It wouldnt work.

So yeah, Libs, Cons the NDP would try and find money in the moon or something, but I dont see how the Government is really able to control the affordability of housing barring....and I've actually been something of a proponent of this....building it themselves.

Council Housing like the UK, communal housing like the USSR, Peachtrees like in Judge Dredd, etc.

Now, hear me out.

I think one of the critical elements of our housing issues is that we've essentially taken away 'the starter step.'

That first, affordable, step that allows people to climb the ladder of social mobility.

And we've replaced that step with 'live at home with your parents longer.'

The problem with that step isnt just that kids hang around longer than we want them to, but it creates vacuum years where they're not generating any equity of their own which will lead to them paying mortgages until much later years in life which will affect retirement, savings and their own kids by that point. Its a knock on effect.

So thats housing, as for Trudeau...not going to comment on his marriage, I dont know anything about it and thats his business, but I do wonder...

Has any 'Chief of State' be it a PM, or a President gone through something like this while sitting in office? I feel like this is unusual but maybe I just dont know.

Either way, I dont think it reflects on him in any meaningful way.

[Tacopuck]

Originally Posted by Locke

Has any 'Chief of State' be it a PM, or a President gone through something like this while sitting in office? I feel like this is unusual but maybe I just dont know.

His father did, although i dont think it was legally finalized till he was no longer the PM

[belsarius]

Originally Posted by Locke

I dont really know what the Liberals can do to bring housing costs down.

The only thing I can think of off the top of my head would be to scrap the Carbon Tax entirely to try and bring the cost of materials and their transportation down...but even that is a faulty idea.

It wouldnt work.

So yeah, Libs, Cons the NDP would try and find money in the moon or something, but I dont see how the Government is really able to control the affordability of housing barring....and I've actually been something of a proponent of this....building it themselves.

Council Housing like the UK, communal housing like the USSR, Peachtrees like in Judge Dredd, etc.

Now, hear me out.

I think one of the critical elements of our housing issues is that we've essentially taken away 'the starter step.'

That first, affordable, step that allows people to climb the ladder of social mobility.

And we've replaced that step with 'live at home with your parents longer.'

The problem with that step isnt just that kids hang around longer than we want them to, but it creates vacuum years where they're not generating any equity of their own which will lead to them paying mortgages until much later years in life which will affect retirement, savings and their own kids by that point. Its a knock on effect.

So thats housing, as for Trudeau...not going to comment on his marriage, I dont know anything about it and thats his business, but I do wonder...

Has any 'Chief of State' be it a PM, or a President gone through something like this while sitting in office? I feel like this is unusual but maybe I just dont know.

Either way, I dont think it reflects on him in any meaningful way.

Trudeau senior is the only other Canadian PM to have it happen. Other countries, I really have no clue.

[Red Slinger]

Originally Posted by Tacopuck

His father did, although i dont think it was legally finalized till he was no longer the PM

I don't want to get into Trudeau's personal life, but if there's a bright side to his separation, all those people with the ##### TRUDEAU bumper stickers may finally get their chance.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Red Slinger

I don't want to get into Trudeau's personal life, but if there's a bright side to his separation, all those people with the ##### TRUDEAU bumper stickers may finally get their chance.

He's a 'Free Agent' now!

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Tacopuck

His father did, although i dont think it was legally finalized till he was no longer the PM

Originally Posted by belsarius

Trudeau senior is the only other Canadian PM to have it happen. Other countries, I really have no clue.

I feel like if Melania Trump could stick it out...you know that had to be difficult.

[StickMan]

I think the housing problem is largely a combination of the fact that Trudeau is bringing in over 400,000 immigrants and we are only building 200,000 new homes.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

I think the odds that housing pricing are going to decrease in any material amounts are slim even if we did start building like madmen.

As long as more people are coming in to the country than we build houses for, it's a pretty simple supply demand issue at this point, and unless supply outpaces demand, well...


We could cut immigration numbers, but that leads to other problems.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by StickMan

I think the housing problem is largely a combination of the fact that Trudeau is bringing in over 400,000 immigrants and we are only building 200,000 new homes.

I think thats far too simplistic. You're not wrong in that this is 'a factor.'

But there are a veritable cornucopia of reasons for our housing issues.

Lack of skilled labour and ergo the cost of said labour, Carbon Taxes on top of supply chain issues on top of shipping costs on top of lack of inventory on top of high interest rates on top of external investment....I could go on and on.

In my opinion absolutely every single market force is absolutely screwing the hell out of the Housing Market.

And the only solution I see from the Federal Government would be: Build it yourselves, own it yourselves, rent it out cheap and create some supply.

Home developers would scream bloody murder...yeah, it'd be a nightmare. But its always darkest before the dawn.