Russia invades Ukraine

[burn_this_city]

Who would win the race to Moscow, the Finns or the Poles?

https://twitter.com/user/status/1569859415653720066

[nik-]

Is this the reason they were recalling military units back to Moscow the other day? Seems like they would have done it then they were deployed, but maybe they just assumed they could recall them.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by nik-

Is this the reason they were recalling military units back to Moscow the other day? Seems like they would have done it then they were deployed, but maybe they just assumed they could recall them.

No.

It's not just that Finland doesn't have an army that could do that, not without mobilization, nor does Poland especially now that they've donated so much equipment to Ukraine.

(Poland has been the main source of tanks for Ukraine so far.)

Nor is there any real interest. Sure we like to dream about it, but it's not serious.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

https://twitter.com/user/status/1569859415653720066

I really want to underline just how massive this news is.

It counters any argument that the Russians made an organized retreat, or really even that they gave up.

No, this is a straight up battlefield defeat, with losses reported at 90+ tanks, many of which were captured by the Ukrainians.

These aren't men or equipment that Russia can replace, or afford to lose.

[Itse]

Longtime "director general" of Pravda has died from a "stroke". (Or possibly an actual stroke of course, he was almost 70.)

https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/09/1...s-from-stroke/

[Pizza]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1569794124743671812

[Itse]

Zelenskiy already visited Izyum.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62899474

That guy has really top notch people working for his personal security.

Also, such a massive difference from the image of Putin looking at ferris wheels in Moscow or sitting in conference rooms in undisclosed locations.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Itse

Zelenskiy already visited Izyum.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62899474

That guy has really top notch people working for his personal security.

Also, such a massive difference from the image of Putin looking at ferris wheels in Moscow or sitting in conference rooms in undisclosed locations.

That's wild! Keep rollin' boys.

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by Itse

Zelenskiy already visited Izyum.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62899474

That guy has really top notch people working for his personal security.

Also, such a massive difference from the image of Putin looking at ferris wheels in Moscow or sitting in conference rooms in undisclosed locations.

Spoiler!

[Itse]

RUMOUR, and unsuccessful even if true, but interesting enough to share:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1569951155735904256

[Firebot]

Rybar is not happy about Zelensky's visit to Izyum

https://twitter.com/user/status/1570002380514824192

Russian propaganda Telegram channels are having seizures trying to explain how the head of the country you are invading suddenly shows in a once fortified Russian town just days ago with impunity.

[Firebot]

On a side note, Azerbaijan's invasion of Armenia isn't just a footnote to this crisis. It's picking up steam and If Russia is unable to protect Armenia which is protected under it's own version of NATO called CSTO, it severely undermines the so called post soviet bloc that Putin boasted about. Armenia has officially invoked article 4 of the CSTO charter (similar to NATO's article 5). Reports of Azerbaijan troops firing on Russian FSB officers there.

Georgia is also doing a referendum on if the public wants to go to war. Most likely they want to retake Abkhazia and South Ossetia which was stolen from them by Russia during the Georgia War.

With Russia being severely weakened by Putin's folly, its neighbors are smelling blood and taking advantage. Will there be a Chechen civil war (lots of Chechen fighting on the side of Ukraine right now)? How long before Kazakhstan pulls something as well.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Firebot

On a side note, Azerbaijan's invasion of Armenia isn't just a footnote to this crisis. It's picking up steam and If Russia is unable to protect Armenia which is protected under it's own version of NATO called CSTO, it severely undermines the so called post soviet bloc that Putin boasted about. Armenia has officially invoked article 4 of the CSTO charter (similar to NATO's article 5). Reports of Azerbaijan troops firing on Russian FSB officers there.

Georgia is also doing a referendum on if the public wants to go to war. Most likely they want to retake Abkhazia and South Ossetia which was stolen from them by Russia during the Georgia War.

With Russia being severely weakened by Putin's folly, its neighbors are smelling blood and taking advantage. Will there be a Chechen civil war (lots of Chechen fighting on the side of Ukraine right now)? How long before Kazakhstan pulls something as well.

Well it's a footnote so far, but you're right, it's worth paying attention to.

Putin has been playing kingmaker in Caucasia and Central-Asia wherever he can, which means there are likely people and groups in those areas reconsidering their alliances and chances to take power right now.

Additionally, when people are talking (mostly jokingly) about the West or China taking advantage of Russia's current military weakness, I think there's a good chance other powers might try to use the opportunity to move Russia's southern neighbours from Russia's sphere of influence into their own.

That after all is the typical way of superpowers, proxy wars and wars of influence instead of direct ones.

As I'm sure everyone knows, the typical way to do that is to pick a side in an already existing local conflict and give them a little push financially and/or in weapons deliveries.

[IliketoPuck]

I wonder if Turkey isn't the country to do something like that.

Despite Erdogan courting Putin somewhat frequently at the moment, the Turkish and Russian peoples have no love lost between them.

[CroFlames]

The offensive is obviously going lightning speed, but I wonder if the Russians make a last stand in like Luhansk or something and we see a modern day Stalingrad with massive destruction and loss of life. I hope not, but at some point I just get the feeling Putin would rather sacrifice thousands of lives in an unwinnable last stand instead of running away without a fight.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

The offensive is obviously going lightning speed, but I wonder if the Russians make a last stand in like Luhansk or something and we see a modern day Stalingrad with massive destruction and loss of life. I hope not, but at some point I just get the feeling Putin would rather sacrifice thousands of lives in an unwinnable last stand instead of running away without a fight.

From the reports knowledgeable people are sharing, it would seem that low troop morale and lack of discipline in the Russian Army are some of the primary factors in the current success of the counter offensive. If that were the case, it seems unthinkable that enough troops remain that Putin could capably motivate to withstand such a siege like Stalingrad. The situations are very different; the Russians at Stalingrad knew that they and their families were likely to be slaughtered if the fighting didn't stop there. In this scenario, if Putin ordered a last stand at Luhansk, the Russian soldiers have no such motivation.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

The offensive is obviously going lightning speed, but I wonder if the Russians make a last stand in like Luhansk or something and we see a modern day Stalingrad with massive destruction and loss of life. I hope not, but at some point I just get the feeling Putin would rather sacrifice thousands of lives in an unwinnable last stand instead of running away without a fight.

You only get a Stalingrad if the defenders have no choice between fighting or death, and an extreme motivation to stop the attackers from advancing further into your homeland. None of that applies to the Russian occupiers

[Kasi]

Only place some last stand is going on would be Kherson where actually Russia is focusing their best forces. Luhansk or Donetsk Russia doesn’t care about them. They’re already press ganged all the adult males anyway. They’ve denied permission for people from there to enter Russia. Estimates are that Russia has what 52k soldier deaths but estimates for both of those republics might be like 70k since they’ve been sent into war fairly I’ll equipped, basically cannon fodder to chew up Ukraine ammunition. And these are pretty small republics that have been in war situations for ten or more years.

To go back to Kherson it wouldn’t happen because Ukraine wouldn’t siege their own people. They’ll probably just encircle it and run the defenders out of ammunition and wait for them to surrender.

[Enoch Root]

If they enter Crimea, I can see a more determined stand from the RU soldiers, but in Luhansk or Donetsk? Seems unlikely.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Itse

Additionally, when people are talking (mostly jokingly) about the West or China taking advantage of Russia's current military weakness, I think there's a good chance other powers might try to use the opportunity to move Russia's southern neighbours from Russia's sphere of influence into their own.

That after all is the typical way of superpowers, proxy wars and wars of influence instead of direct ones.

As I'm sure everyone knows, the typical way to do that is to pick a side in an already existing local conflict and give them a little push financially and/or in weapons deliveries.

This one's a bit more complicated for the West. Basically by every measure, Armenia aligns far more with Western ideals than Azerbaijan; it's a democratic country, has press freedom, and a relatively good human rights record. Meanwhile Azerbaijan is essentially a dictatorship and a kleptocracy, is guilty of significant human rights abuses, and has little to no press freedom.

But Azerbaijan supplies the EU with energy, so that all kind of goes out the window:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1549008925806268416