Calgary Civic Election: Mayoralty Poll #4 - The Heat is On - Page 37 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

Cscutch · 10-13-2010, 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigtime

This Saturday Nenshi will be on CityTV at 1pm for a TV 'Town Hall':

I think this is really important.... Nenshi has the ability when people hear him speak they tend to change to take interest.

For example I was talking to my dad about Nenshi and he was interested a little bit, but then I convinced him to go to the UofC Mayoral forum and the end was really excited about Nenshi...

Chris

Cscutch · 10-13-2010, 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mykalberta

Herald poll also shows N^2 at 30%

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/He...907/story.html

I personally take any poll with a grain of salt due to voter turnout numbers.
I dont think Hawkesworth support will help that much other than with his older voters - hopefully they are so old that when they see his name on the ballot they will vote for him even though he has dropped out.

That will happen, even though he has dropped out, most the public that support him will still vote for him, because they don't know he has dropped out. His support comes from the anti tunnel crowd.

transplant99 · 10-13-2010, 01:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by firebug

A bit of math behind my opinion...

Using the 33/30/30 split from the Leger survey would result in
McIver 165/500 voters
Nenshi 150/500
Higgins 150/500

I applied a follow-through (i.e. showing up to actually vote) metric of
McIver 40%
Nenshi 50%
Higgins 30%

Results:
Nenshi 75/186 voters (40%)
McIver 66/186 (35%)
Higgins 45/186 (24%)

This would result in 186/500 voters actually showing up (~37%) an number far higher than any election in the past decade.

Admittedly, my estimates for follow-through are completely biased, but reflect the level of participation I have witnessed in the electorate.

Again, and by all means correct me if i am wrong, Nenshi's big support comes from the 18-34 YO demographic, which historically has been the lowest turnout when it comes to actually going out and voting.

This is why i think his numbers mean less than any of the others in a poll of any size. If I am incorrect, then I would agree he is right there in terms of getting elected, and good for him if it happens and a result I would be happy with if i lived there. I just do not believe, if following past elections, this will be the case. To much history to ignore...though if the 58% of people who staunchly say they are turning out to vote include all those in his demo, then history wont be repeated.

transplant99 · 10-13-2010, 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cscutch

That will happen, even though he has dropped out, most the public that support him will still vote for him, because they don't know he has dropped out. His support comes from the anti tunnel crowd.

What? You mean Hawkeworth supporters dont read the newspapers or watch local news on TV. Based on what? Or am i missing something here?

Shazam · 10-13-2010, 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by firebug

A bit of math behind my opinion...

Admittedly, my estimates for follow-through are completely biased, but reflect the level of participation I have witnessed in the electorate.

There hasn't been voter turnout over 50% for over 30 years in Calgary.

Swayze11 · 10-13-2010, 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by transplant99

What? You mean Hawkeworth supporters dont read the newspapers or watch local news on TV. Based on what? Or am i missing something here?

Your arrogance surprises me, clearly that is not the point he was trying to make.

burn_this_city · 10-13-2010, 01:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swayze11

Your arrogance surprises me, clearly that is not the point he was trying to make.

Really? What point was he trying to make then? Maybe a protest vote but thats not how cutch stated it.

transplant99 · 10-13-2010, 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swayze11

Your arrogance surprises me, clearly that is not the point he was trying to make.

Arrogance?

Its simple damn question and why i added "am I missing something here".

get bent.

firebug · 10-13-2010, 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shazam

There hasn't been voter turnout over 50% for over 30 years in Calgary.

Agreed, my estimates resulted in a turnout of 37% (still high compared to historical).

Shazam · 10-13-2010, 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by firebug

Agreed, my estimates resulted in a turnout of 37% (still high compared to historical).

And you have Nenshi voters at 50%.

Do you really think that'll happen?

firebug · 10-13-2010, 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by transplant99

Again, and by all means correct me if i am wrong, Nenshi's big support comes from the 18-34 YO demographic, which historically has been the lowest turnout when it comes to actually going out and voting.

This is why i think his numbers mean less than any of the others in a poll of any size. If I am incorrect, then I would agree he is right there in terms of getting elected, and good for him if it happens and a result I would be happy with if i lived there. I just do not believe, if following past elections, this will be the case. To much history to ignore...though if the 58% of people who staunchly say they are turning out to vote include all those in his demo, then history wont be repeated.

I certainly agree that Nenshi is dominant among the 18- 35 YO category.

My personal experience however is not within that group. I work downtown (not on a campus of any sort), and my wife and I, along with most of our social group, trends slightly above that threshold (late 30's early 40's). Additionally, I would guess the average age of the people that I deliver signs to would be a little shy of 50, an age group very willing to go out and vote.

Swayze11 · 10-13-2010, 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by transplant99

Arrogance?

Its simple damn question and why i added "am I missing something here".

get bent.

You seriously got:

"Hawkeworth supporters dont read the newspapers or watch local news on TV."

from

"even though he has dropped out, most the public that support him will still vote for him, because they don't know he has dropped out."

please.

transplant99 · 10-13-2010, 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swayze11

You seriously got:

"Hawkeworth supporters dont read the newspapers or watch local news on TV."

from

"even though he has dropped out, most the public that support him will still vote for him, because they don't know he has dropped out."

please.

yes...seriously. Why would they not know? And how is asking that arrogant in any way? i have no clue where most of his 2% of support came from, so maybe i was missing something connected to that since i dont live there.

Good grief.

Cscutch · 10-13-2010, 01:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by transplant99

What? You mean Hawkeworth supporters dont read the newspapers or watch local news on TV. Based on what? Or am i missing something here?

Some do, some don't... Wouldn't suprise me that he still ends up in 4th.

Chris

firebug · 10-13-2010, 01:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shazam

And you have Nenshi voters at 50%.

Do you really think that'll happen?

It certainly may not be 50%, but I would bet it will be 80 - 100% better than Higgins.

However, look at this thread. How many have indicated that they have already voted at the advance polls?

Do you think this is just a CP or internet phenomenon?

Look at the donation lists from the 3 candidates. Which are filled with companies and which are filled with many small personal donations?

Nenshi's appeal is not to the young. It is to the involved and informed, and I believe that those people will indeed get out and vote.

Swayze11 · 10-13-2010, 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by transplant99

yes...seriously. Why would they not know? And how is asking that arrogant in any way? i have no clue where most of his 2% of support came from, so maybe i was missing something connected to that since i dont live there.

Good grief.

Because some people are probably dead set on voting for someone as soon as they announced the official candidates. I am sure most people will stay informed but I can guarantee that there is a % of people that will vote for something they like without looking at their platform (see Barb Higgins).

example: "I voted for Hawkeworth for alderman in my Ward, I like him - he gets my vote"

Shazam · 10-13-2010, 01:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by firebug

It certainly may not be 50%, but I would bet it will be 80 - 100% better than Higgins.

However, look at this thread. How many have indicated that they have already voted at the advance polls?

Do you think this is just a CP or internet phenomenon?

Look at the donation lists from the 3 candidates. Which are filled with companies and which are filled with many small personal donations?

Nenshi's appeal is not to the young. It is to the involved and informed, and I believe that those people will indeed get out and vote.

You vastly overestimate the number of voters here.

If every member of CP voted, it's 2% of the voters that turned out for the federal election.

transplant99 · 10-13-2010, 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swayze11

Because some people are probably dead set on voting for someone as soon as they announced the official candidates.

example: "I voted for Hawkeworth for alderman in my Ward, I like him - he gets my vote"

Which doesnt address why they wouldnt be aware that he dropped out....which is what was stated and why i asked if there was a reason for it.

I think that those who are AWARE he isnt running will not waste their vote on him, i am just curious why they wouldnt know that with the election still a week away and this getting full coverage by local media.

Quote:

I can guarantee that there is a % of people that will vote for something they like without looking at their platform

I can guarentee you that all candidates will receive such votes.

burn_this_city · 10-13-2010, 01:45 PM

You guarantee??? Effing arrogant .

Kipper is King · 10-13-2010, 01:46 PM

Nenshi will likely have my vote. I think there is more to being mayor than reading things in front of a camera, so Higgins is out. She also has missed critical forums. McIver bores me and he seems quite selfish. Every interview he speaks like he is God's gift to city council. Having him represent our city bothers me, just based on the image he projects. I realize that is not proper reasoning to base my vote on, though. I will research McIver's policies more before the 18th.

Nenshi is an economist, so he will have a good grasp of how to keep the city fiscally on track. I hope he can drum up some more support.