Western Conf Playoffs - Round 1: Flames vs. Hughson's Canucks (Flames lead 3-2)

[BCF]

Originally Posted by bzoo02

It's going to come down to our D who are miles ahead as far as offensive production.

Except 48 points is not in your lineup... I like the Canucks chances greatly.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by BCF

Except 48 points is not in your lineup... I like the Canucks chances greatly.

Yup, Gio isn't there. Even without him the edge still goes to the Flames. By 15 or so points over all. 15 points is enough to tip the scales. Like it's already been posted, If Gio was in the line up, wouldn't even be close.

Van has the advantage on the PK. Which means you can survive taking more penalties. But depending on the Flames PP success, could be a terrible gamble.

[CroFlames]

I'm still holding out hope Bouma will be back. During the season when it looked like we were gonna make the dance, I kept thinking Bouma will be the guy who steps up the most and sacrifices the most.

I was so down when he got hurt. I sure hope he recovers quickly.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by BCF

Except 48 points is not in your lineup... I like the Canucks chances greatly.

You might want to check the points from the D since he got hurt. It's the system.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by BCF

Except 48 points is not in your lineup... I like the Canucks chances greatly.

That's nice. We will see how the series unfolds. Regardless of what happens in the playoffs the Flames are on to bigger and better things while the Canucks are on the slow decline to teardown and rebuild.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by BCF

I agree except Kane and Toews had 2 years experience behind them and a way deeper team behind them. The flames do not in anyway have any solid veterans behind them. Stajan is finally getting to the playoffs. But the flames definitely have nothing to lose... Except they are the clear favorited in this series

Monahan had played as many seasons as Toews and Kane in 09 and in his sophomore year had similar stats as Kane. Johnny is a rookie but he is 21 and had 3 solid years of development in the NCAA. Last year he also competed in the World Championships. He has always stepped up in big games and tournaments.

Hudler, Wideman, Engellend are solid vets. The forward group is made up of mostly young guys under 30 and that benefits Calgary.

I agree the Hawks were a deeper team but also will argue that Flames and Canucks teams that lost to them were better than today's Canucks team.

Calgary is getting a lot of love from the media right now. I think the main reason for this is the Canucks are the definition of a vanilla team (or "meh"). They have some old veterans who could not get it done 4 years ago when they were younger and in their prime. The Flames have been discounted all year and through all the adversity of being labeled a bottom feeder, to losing their captain, they persevered. Most media call it a pick-em series but lean toward Calgary because they are young, exciting, and they claim they are done betting against them.

[Meers]

I'd say the Flames are most reminiscent of the 2012/13 Toronto Maple Leafs and the 2013/14 Avalanche - the two teams from recent seasons to experience surprising regular season success despite horrible underlying statistics in 5v5 Corsi For (CF)% and Fenwick For (FF)%. (And let's not kid ourselves, the Flames are bottom three in the league when it comes to possession.)

Those two statistical anomalies went up against strong possession teams in the first round, and both lost in seven games.

Now, fortunately, the Canucks aren't world beaters in the possession department, but they're still stronger than the Flames - ranked 20th in CF% at 5v5.

So, I'd guess the Nucks have an ever so slight advantage - but it's going to be close, with most games being decided by one goal (just like the regular season series) and it'll probably go to 7 games. So, it's a coin flip one way or the otherand will likely be decided by a flukey bounce.

But, no matter what team wins this series, you can rest assured they will get killed in the next round.

And neither of these teams makes the post-season next year.

[Biff]

The Flames are unsustainable and, I truly believe, won't make the playoffs this year either, let alone next year.

[iLoveLamp]

Originally Posted by Meers

I'd say the Flames are most reminiscent of the 2012/13 Toronto Maple Leafs and the 2013/14 Avalanche - the two teams from recent seasons to experience surprising regular season success despite horrible underlying statistics in 5v5 Corsi For (CF)% and Fenwick For (FF)%. (And let's not kid ourselves, the Flames are bottom three in the league when it comes to possession.)

Those two statistical anomalies went up against strong possession teams in the first round, and both lost in seven games.

Now, fortunately, the Canucks aren't world beaters in the possession department, but they're still stronger than the Flames - ranked 20th in CF% at 5v5.

So, I'd guess the Nucks have an ever so slight advantage - but it's going to be close, with most games being decided by one goal (just like the regular season series) and it'll probably go to 7 games. So, it's a coin flip one way or the otherand will likely be decided by a flukey bounce.

But, no matter what team wins this series, you can rest assured they will get killed in the next round.

And neither of these teams makes the post-season next year.

So according to your logic, the Kings are going to win the Cup this year, right?

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Meers

I'd say the Flames are most reminiscent of the 2012/13 Toronto Maple Leafs and the 2013/14 Avalanche - the two teams from recent seasons to experience surprising regular season success despite horrible underlying statistics in 5v5 Corsi For (CF)% and Fenwick For (FF)%. (And let's not kid ourselves, the Flames are bottom three in the league when it comes to possession.)

Those two statistical anomalies went up against strong possession teams in the first round, and both lost in seven games.

Now, fortunately, the Canucks aren't world beaters in the possession department, but they're still stronger than the Flames - ranked 20th in CF% at 5v5.

So, I'd guess the Nucks have an ever so slight advantage - but it's going to be close, with most games being decided by one goal (just like the regular season series) and it'll probably go to 7 games. So, it's a coin flip one way or the otherand will likely be decided by a flukey bounce.

But, no matter what team wins this series, you can rest assured they will get killed in the next round.

And neither of these teams makes the post-season next year.

This is a popular position from the haters. Throw out some possession percentages and say the Flames are lucky. The big difference with the Flames and those 2 teams the Flames are not being held together by incredible goaltending. The Flameshave middle of the pack save %.

I just think the Flames are an extremely well coached team and that is why they are successful. This team works extremely hard, and block a ton of shots. It limits the opponents scoring chances but results in the other team holding the puck longer. The Flames lack size up front and are not built to cycle the puck for shifts on end. They attack the zone with numbers due to their highly mobile defense and speed. This team scores off the rush and get high quality chances.

[tvp2003]

Originally Posted by Meers

I'd say the Flames are most reminiscent of the 2012/13 Toronto Maple Leafs and the 2013/14 Avalanche - the two teams from recent seasons to experience surprising regular season success despite horrible underlying statistics in 5v5 Corsi For (CF)% and Fenwick For (FF)%. (And let's not kid ourselves, the Flames are bottom three in the league when it comes to possession.)

Those two statistical anomalies went up against strong possession teams in the first round, and both lost in seven games.

Now, fortunately, the Canucks aren't world beaters in the possession department, but they're still stronger than the Flames - ranked 20th in CF% at 5v5.

So, I'd guess the Nucks have an ever so slight advantage - but it's going to be close, with most games being decided by one goal (just like the regular season series) and it'll probably go to 7 games. So, it's a coin flip one way or the otherand will likely be decided by a flukey bounce.

But, no matter what team wins this series, you can rest assured they will get killed in the next round.

And neither of these teams makes the post-season next year.

Where can I learn more about these innovative (almost advanced) statistical calculations you refer to? If only I had heard about them during the regular season, as I'm sure they would have enhanced my knowledge and enjoyment watching the Calgary Flames, and they undoubtedly would have been an accurate and reliable predictor of their success this year.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

[QUOTE=Meers;5243502]I'd say the Flames are most reminiscent of the 2012/13 Toronto Maple Leafs and the 2013/14 Avalanche - the two teams from recent seasons to experience surprising regular season success despite horrible underlying statistics in 5v5 Corsi For (CF)% and Fenwick For (FF)%. (And let's not kid ourselves, the Flames are bottom three in the league when it comes to possession.)

Those two statistical anomalies went up against strong possession teams in the first round, and both lost in seven games.

Now, fortunately, the Canucks aren't world beaters in the possession department, but they're still stronger than the Flames - ranked 20th in CF% at 5v5.

So, I'd guess the Nucks have an ever so slight advantage - but it's going to be close, with most games being decided by one goal (just like the regular season series) and it'll probably go to 7 games. So, it's a coin flip one way or the otherand will likely be decided by a flukey bounce.

But, no matter what team wins this series, you can rest assured they will get killed in the next round.

And neither of these teams makes the post-season next year.[QUOTE]

Why do you think neither team will make the playoffs next year? 3 spots for sure up for grabs in the Pacific next year. Are you assuming the 3 cali teams make it? The oilers and yotes won't make it so.....

I can see one of Van or Cgy missing but probably not both. That would actually be a pretty dumb bet to make given this year's results. No reason to think SJ will be better than either team. A case could be made for LA but even then it's a toss up at best. Unless you're just assuming Cgy's young stars are all going to get worse and Bennett is going to bust....

[troutman]

LOL - Garrett accused Hrudey of wearing a Flames jersey on preview show.

The SN panel all had a good laugh at the irony of him calling anyone a homer.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Meers

I'd say the Flames are most reminiscent of the 2012/13 Toronto Maple Leafs and the 2013/14 Avalanche - the two teams from recent seasons to experience surprising regular season success despite horrible underlying statistics in 5v5 Corsi For (CF)% and Fenwick For (FF)%. (And let's not kid ourselves, the Flames are bottom three in the league when it comes to possession.)

Those two statistical anomalies went up against strong possession teams in the first round, and both lost in seven games.

Now, fortunately, the Canucks aren't world beaters in the possession department, but they're still stronger than the Flames - ranked 20th in CF% at 5v5.

So, I'd guess the Nucks have an ever so slight advantage - but it's going to be close, with most games being decided by one goal (just like the regular season series) and it'll probably go to 7 games. So, it's a coin flip one way or the otherand will likely be decided by a flukey bounce.

But, no matter what team wins this series, you can rest assured they will get killed in the next round.

And neither of these teams makes the post-season next year.

First of all who gives a good god damn, I get tired of those comparisons. That Toronto team was putrid defensively and bailed out by exceptional goaltending. The Avs last year had a terrible blueline and got vezina level goaltending. On top of it they lost a key center in the off season and didn't improve their blueline.

The comparisons aren't valid, the Flames are much more well rounded then those teams and surprise, we didn't get vezina goaltending.

Sorry to snap at you but the comparison is idiotic and means very little, and its an argument that people hide behind. Oh look at the possession numbers oh look at the Corsi.

Maybe if the advanced stats model wasn't based around teams that play different styles then the Flames and then ruthlessly applied to a fast transition team like the Flames.

If you want to be worried about possession numbers, the Canucks are a typical puck possession team and their possession numbers aren't good.

But I'll let you in on a couple of things. The only stats that count are wins, and those aren't that advanced, and the Flames got enough wins to qualify for the playoffs.

Plus the regular season is over, those numbers don't apply, new season remember.

And who cares about next year, no team ices the same team year after year.

If your going to use advanced Stats for year after year comparisons at least do some homework and understand why those teams failed.

[pylon]

Originally Posted by Meers

I'd say the Flames are most reminiscent of the 2012/13 Toronto Maple Leafs and the 2013/14 Avalanche - the two teams from recent seasons to experience surprising regular season success despite horrible underlying statistics in 5v5 Corsi For (CF)% and Fenwick For (FF)%. (And let's not kid ourselves, the Flames are bottom three in the league when it comes to possession.)

Those two statistical anomalies went up against strong possession teams in the first round, and both lost in seven games.

Now, fortunately, the Canucks aren't world beaters in the possession department, but they're still stronger than the Flames - ranked 20th in CF% at 5v5.

So, I'd guess the Nucks have an ever so slight advantage - but it's going to be close, with most games being decided by one goal (just like the regular season series) and it'll probably go to 7 games. So, it's a coin flip one way or the otherand will likely be decided by a flukey bounce.

But, no matter what team wins this series, you can rest assured they will get killed in the next round.

And neither of these teams makes the post-season next year.

[Dagger]

Originally Posted by Biff

The Flames are unsustainable and, I truly believe, won't make the playoffs this year either, let alone next year.

Soooo Flames in 4?

[opendoor]

The TOR/COL comparison doesn't make a ton of sense. Those were teams that had poor possession numbers but rode high percentages to very good GF% numbers at 5-on-5. Once their percentages normalized their goal differential saw a precipitous drop.

Calgary on the other hand has poor possession numbers but their GF% isn't great either; they're a -2 at 5-on-5 and 15th among the 16th playoff teams (only VAN is worse). Their good overall goal differential comes primarily from non 5-on-5 play as they were +10 on special teams (mainly owing to an excellent PP/PK differential), +6 at 4-on-4, and +10 with goalies pulled.

So is that sustainable? Who knows, but it's not really the same story as Colorado and Toronto. Montreal last year might be a better comparable. Terrible possession numbers, mediocre GF% numbers at ES but they still did well last year and this year. Though this year they would've been in tough without Price's fantastic season so that makes comparing to the Flames a little tougher.

[The Familia]

#### all this "advanced" stats and Corsi bullcrap. Every single game has its own unique set of circumstances that no formula can predict. Did Corsi predict the Flames 4 goal comeback against Ottawa? Did Fenwick explain why Calgary scored twice with the goalie pulled against New Jersey? The answer is no. There are things in sports that cannot be explained or predicted. Momentum and bounces are just two of them. At the end of the day wins is all that counts. Good teams will usually get the bounces and momentum which will lead to wins. The Flames did plenty of winning this year that is a fact!

[skudr248]

Who excite? I so excite for tomorrow, I so excite I can't study for my exam in 14 hours, sleep? no.. so excite!

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

I have no idea what to think of this series. My head says the Canucks win it, and my heart says the Flames. Normally I would listen to my head, but here's the thing--my head has been wrong about the Flames pretty much every night since October.

The one thing going for the Flames is the complete lack of pressure. They can hold their heads high no matter what happens in this series. If the Canucks lose, on the other hand...