American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by nik-

Just waiting on confirmation that that human trash heap Boebert loses.

Boebert won in a presidential election year when just under 430,000 ballots were cast. In the past two mid-term elections there were 336,200 and 281,100 votes cast. Projections for registrations has them similar to 2018, so an expected turnout of 330,000 votes. There's about 35,000 ballots out there and Boebert needs to make up 3,500 votes. She's still in this if those votes are in Custer, Dolores, or Delta counties, where she had huge support. If they are from elsewhere in the district, she may be done. All the others were close to leaning Dem. Need to know what counties are outstanding.

[kirant]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Boebert won in a presidential election year when just under 430,000 ballots were cast. In the past two mid-term elections there were 336,200 and 281,100 votes cast. Projections for registrations has them similar to 2018, so an expected turnout of 330,000 votes. There's about 35,000 ballots out there and Boebert needs to make up 3,500 votes. She's still in this if those votes are in Custer, Dolores, or Delta counties, where she had huge support. If they are from elsewhere in the district, she may be done. All the others were close to leaning Dem. Need to know what counties are outstanding.

The remaining votes appears to primarily remain in Pueblo County, which the NYT page is showing as leaning Democrat currently (though their model also suggests the biggest pickup will be in Mesa, where they believe a ~4000 vote swing for Boebert still exists).

[SutterBrother]

If the Republicans hadn’t been so openly anti-vax, I wonder how many of their voters would be alive today? Perhaps enough to push them over the top?

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

That's the most encouraging statistic I've seen so far for the future of America. I wonder which issues brought them out this time.

Probably wanting to be able to still vote when they're older.

[wittynickname]

Originally Posted by SutterBrother

If the Republicans hadn’t been so openly anti-vax, I wonder how many of their voters would be alive today? Perhaps enough to push them over the top?

Races are so close in so many states, when you think of the amount of red-leaning voters who died of covid because of being fed anti-mask/anti-vax propaganda...things might look very different today had they given even a little credence to their base's safety.

[photon]

The number of votes between Warnock and Walker is lower than the number of COIVD deaths in GA. I doubt the COVID deaths in GA were 90% Republicans so it probably won't be the deciding factor but the idea is at least plausible.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by kirant

The remaining votes appears to primarily remain in Pueblo County, which the NYT page is showing as leaning Democrat currently (though their model also suggests the biggest pickup will be in Mesa, where they believe a ~4000 vote swing for Boebert still exists).

Just crunched some numbers based on the data from the NYT and I don't see how Bobert can catch up. If the trends continue as they are in each county, and the outstanding ballots are accurate, Frisch should expand their lead by another 2,350 votes. This looks over.

[nfotiu]

Black people died at a disproportionate rate as well, so probably a small factor.

The overturning of Roe v wade was probably the biggest difference maker. Anecdotally that got a lot more of normally apathetic 20somethings I know much more passionate about voting.

[looooob]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

Black people died at a disproportionate rate as well, so probably a small factor.

.

I believe that is flipping now, but pandemic wide I am sure you are still correct


https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...eaths-us-race/

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Anyone expecting results from Arizona should strap in for a long wait. Could be as long as two weeks before we get the vote count completed.

Overall the Dems did way better than anticipated and fought historical trends quite well. Yoho's red wave never materialized and it was more of a ripple.



One thing for certain based on these results, the Republican party lives and dies on backs of those they can scare into voting for them. Their Fox News base is slowly dying off and a new generation of votes is breaking 3-to-1 in favor of progressive values. Only a matter of time before those voters out number the existing Republican firewall as it dies off.

I honestly don't know the true answer, but how much of this has been true since the beginning of voting? How many young hopeful liberals become jaded conservatives with age and money?

[GirlySports]

Also if you've been voting Democrat, no matter how bad the economy is and how much you're struggling, you're not going to suddenly vote for a party that wants to give you less money and cut taxes for the rich. The GOP had this wide open door and gave no solutions to current problems.

I've always said, as each day passes, there are more progressive voters. They just need to get out and vote.

Even in Canada, I can never see the Conservative Party of Canada breaking 40% of the popular vote. So it just depends how the other 60% breaks.
If Trudeau keeps giving out money than what's Pierre's argument? That Trudeau is reckless?

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

I honestly don't know the true answer, but how much of this has been true since the beginning of voting? How many young hopeful liberals become jaded conservatives with age and money?

There is a very real possibility that leaded gasoline caused the boomer generation to go off the rails mentally speaking

https://www.fatherly.com/news/leaded...e%20University.

My hope is that once they start dying off in greater numbers that some kind of sanity comes back to politics

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

I honestly don't know the true answer, but how much of this has been true since the beginning of voting? How many young hopeful liberals become jaded conservatives with age and money?

I don't really see it that way anymore. Maybe a shift from passionate progressive to a more pragmatic moderate Democrat is likely. It's hard to imagine a young liberal thinking the current Republicans are the wise, sane choice as they age.

[Red Slinger]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

There is a very real possibility that leaded gasoline caused the boomer generation to go off the rails mentally speaking

https://www.fatherly.com/news/leaded...e%20University.

My hope is that once they start dying off in greater numbers that some kind of sanity comes back to politics

There have been a few instances similar to this of cultural mass insanity caused by things like lead. In the middle-ages there was a large uptick of religious visions (i.e. hallucinations) caused by diseased mushrooms (not the magic kind). There was a similar situation caused by bad cheese. Both of which led to some wacky laws being implemented, some of which we still feel the echoes of to this day.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

So, the morning after update appears to be, Republicans still likely to end up with a narrow majority in the house, Senate still close to a toss up but slightly more likely to end up Dem-controlled, and a few of the most extreme crazies lost?

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

So, the morning after update appears to be, Republicans still likely to end up with a narrow majority in the house, Senate still close to a toss up but slightly more likely to end up Dem-controlled, and a few of the most extreme crazies lost?

The mid-west returning a bit more blue, and Florida going even more red is probably a good trade off for the next presidential election.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

I don't really see it that way anymore. Maybe a shift from passionate progressive to a more pragmatic moderate Democrat is likely. It's hard to imagine a young liberal thinking the current Republicans are the wise, sane choice as they age.

I can't speak for others my age, but I feel like there's less resentment towards the younger generation between millennials and zoomers than there is between boomers/gen-x and millennials. Completely anecdotal obviously, but my theory is that the struggles and fears millennials are facing and have faced are fairly identical to what Gen Z are facing, whereas boomers and gen-x have been able to acquire more wealth, etc., because of the eras they were born into. There's much more class solidarity amongst millennials and zoomers than other generations..

I actually really admire Gen Z and think they're doing a much better job than us millennials have done of focusing on material issues and not getting distracted by a lot of the culture war nonsense.

[mikephoen]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I can't speak for others my age, but I feel like there's less resentment towards the younger generation between millennials and zoomers than there is between boomers/gen-x and millennials. Completely anecdotal obviously, but my theory is that the struggles and fears millennials are facing and have faced are fairly identical to what Gen Z are facing, whereas boomers and gen-x have been able to acquire more wealth, etc., because of the eras they were born into. There's much more class solidarity amongst millennials and zoomers than other generations..

I actually really admire Gen Z and think they're doing a much better job than us millennials have done of focusing on material issues and not getting distracted by a lot of the culture war nonsense.

You deserve a punch in the taint for lumping Gen X in with Boomers. We ain't with them.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by mikephoen

You deserve a punch in the taint for lumping Gen X in with Boomers. We ain't with them.

Gen X may not be boomers, but who can really tell the difference?

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by mikephoen

You deserve a punch in the taint for lumping Gen X in with Boomers. We ain't with them.

Gen X are the generation who bitch the loudest about cancel culture.

I'm not really lumping Gen X in with Boomers. Just saying that most Gen Xers were able to afford buying a house and therefore tend to be a bit more out of touch with cost of living issues that face Gen Z.

EDIT: And yes I realize I'm generalizing/stereotyping. Not all boomers are out of touch with these issues either.