Mike Smith's... woes? He blows? Eating crows? Who knows! (Also David Rittich exists!)

[KipperFaNaTic]

I am no Smith supporter, but having Smith still be part of the team may be good for Rittich's development. Smith is a veteran and is mentoring Rittich. For example, I have seen Rittich's puck handling improve over the season and I am sure he got that from Smith.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

My point is that on a better defensive team like the Flames, these 2 goaltenders would be performing better than they have on their previous bad teams.

When Smith was the unquestioned starter back in October, the Flames were giving up high-danger scoring chances right along with the worst teams in the league – culminating in the 9-1 wipeout against Pittsburgh.

You might personally think that the difference has been negligible. But I’d argue that their current sv% of .895 or .897 would make a huge difference for this team. For Smith, those sv% would mean approximately 12 to 14 goals less over the course of an entire 82 game season which would be the equivalent of how many additional extra points/wins in the standings?

But Smith isn't playing 82 games, nor is any goalie, especially a backup. So the point is moot.

However, let's go with your numbers. The Flames' Pythagorean expectation is for a .605 winning percentage, not allowing for loser points. If you subtract 7 goals against, that changes to .634. (To save time, I use 2 as the exponent, which is just slightly off from the number the stat wonks use for hockey.) So the expected difference in the standings is between four and five points – since you asked.

But that assumes that the team as a whole improves its save percentage by .009. Obviously, changing backup goalies is not going to make your starter that much better.

I would absolutely take an .895 sv% from Smith. One whole percentage worth can be the difference between an average goaltender vs a Vezina calibre goaltender.

Not the difference between .886 and .895. So again, the point is moot.

However, if that's what you're looking for—

In his first seven games played (up to and including the Pittsburgh debacle), Smith gave up 25 goals on 186 shots – an .866 save percentage. In the 16 games he's played since then, he has given up 41 goals on 392 shots – which is an .895 percentage.

So if you would absolutely take an .895 percentage from Smith, you should be happy, because you've got it. Nothing is going to scrub out his awful performance in October, or the bad team defence during that time. But I doubt you would be happy if he continued at an .895 clip for the rest of the season as backup. Nor should you be happy if another backup delivers an .895 save percentage, just because his name does not happen to be Mike Smith.

The Nilsson-McKenna trade was widely described as ‘doofus for doofus’. You're not going to move any needles by acquiring another doofus.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

When Smith was the unquestioned starter back in October, the Flames were giving up high-danger scoring chances right along with the worst teams in the league – culminating in the 9-1 wipeout against Pittsburgh.



But Smith isn't playing 82 games, nor is any goalie, especially a backup. So the point is moot.

However, let's go with your numbers. The Flames' Pythagorean expectation is for a .605 winning percentage, not allowing for loser points. If you subtract 7 goals against, that changes to .634. (To save time, I use 2 as the exponent, which is just slightly off from the number the stat wonks use for hockey.) So the expected difference in the standings is between four and five points – since you asked.

But that assumes that the team as a whole improves its save percentage by .009. Obviously, changing backup goalies is not going to make your starter that much better.



Not the difference between .886 and .895. So again, the point is moot.

However, if that's what you're looking for—

In his first seven games played (up to and including the Pittsburgh debacle), Smith gave up 25 goals on 186 shots – an .866 save percentage. In the 16 games he's played since then, he has given up 41 goals on 392 shots – which is an .895 percentage.

So if you would absolutely take an .895 percentage from Smith, you should be happy, because you've got it. Nothing is going to scrub out his awful performance in October, or the bad team defence during that time. But I doubt you would be happy if he continued at an .895 clip for the rest of the season as backup. Nor should you be happy if another backup delivers an .895 save percentage, just because his name does not happen to be Mike Smith.

The Nilsson-McKenna trade was widely described as ‘doofus for doofus’. You're not going to move any needles by acquiring another doofus.

Obviously I didn’t account for a full 82 games for a one single goaltender. It was his pace which was something roughly close to 40ish. If it was a full 82, you’d be looking at savings of 24-28 goals.

You’re honestly making this too complex talking about Pythagorean theorems and such and such and cherry picking certain dates. To make it fair you’d have to also remove the really bad games for Nilsson and McKenna where their teams played like crap in front of them too.

The truth is, relative to Rittich, Mike Smith’s performance has been completely unacceptable. It’s hard to believe the lengths at which anyone could defend his performance right now. Softies almost every game. He’s been that bad and it even started last January of 2018. He hasn’t been good for the Flames for a full calendar year.

Lastly, I used Nilsson as an example. It doesn’t have to be him. Any marginal upgrade that’ll come cheap will do. Scour the basement teams for their back ups and if one comes cheap enough, pull the trigger. To just sit idly by while Mike Smith continues his parade of consistent nightmare goaltending and to not do anything about it is simply not acceptable. It’s just pure insanity.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

When Smith was the unquestioned starter back in October, the Flames were giving up high-danger scoring chances right along with the worst teams in the league – culminating in the 9-1 wipeout against Pittsburgh.



But Smith isn't playing 82 games, nor is any goalie, especially a backup. So the point is moot.

However, let's go with your numbers. The Flames' Pythagorean expectation is for a .605 winning percentage, not allowing for loser points. If you subtract 7 goals against, that changes to .634. (To save time, I use 2 as the exponent, which is just slightly off from the number the stat wonks use for hockey.) So the expected difference in the standings is between four and five points – since you asked.

But that assumes that the team as a whole improves its save percentage by .009. Obviously, changing backup goalies is not going to make your starter that much better.



Not the difference between .886 and .895. So again, the point is moot.

However, if that's what you're looking for—

In his first seven games played (up to and including the Pittsburgh debacle), Smith gave up 25 goals on 186 shots – an .866 save percentage. In the 16 games he's played since then, he has given up 41 goals on 392 shots – which is an .895 percentage.

So if you would absolutely take an .895 percentage from Smith, you should be happy, because you've got it. Nothing is going to scrub out his awful performance in October, or the bad team defence during that time. But I doubt you would be happy if he continued at an .895 clip for the rest of the season as backup. Nor should you be happy if another backup delivers an .895 save percentage, just because his name does not happen to be Mike Smith.

The Nilsson-McKenna trade was widely described as ‘doofus for doofus’. You're not going to move any needles by acquiring another doofus.

So much wrong with this conversation. Never mind save percentage. It’s pretty much meaningless, and we can explore that later.

In short, most shots taken are generally stoppable, most goalies stop them, and that is probably 80-85 percent at least. Some shots are unstoppable, and team D has a lot to do with that.

Consider bad goals Mike Smith has given up at bad times and points Mike Smith has cost the Flames in the standings.

Smith hasn’t lost games based on calculations of save % and placing the odd goal here and there randomly over the course of that stretch of games. He has lost by letting in bad goals at bad times.

I hate to say it. The guy is pretty much done.

Even if he can put together a few good games here and there, he can’t do it consistently. He can’t win the bulk of the expected games and then steal some more. It’s over.

[Dan02]

The Flames are currently 3rd overall in the NHL out of 31 teams.

Out of 46 goalies who have played at least a third of their teams games (14 games) Mike Smith is dead ####ing last in save %.

Does not compute.

People rave about how good Tampas lineup is, best in the cap era etc. Well if Calgary had goaltending as good as Tampa we'd be neck and neck with them for first overall. Right now we're easily -10 Smith points right now.

[Erick Estrada]

I advise anyone to go to the NHL app and watch the game highlights from the Bruins broadcast. On the 1st goal the announcer is questioning why Smith is so deep in the net and on the 5th goal the announcer was trying to figure out how DeBrusk had so much net to shoot at from such a bad angle. It's pretty clear that people around the league outside of Calgary aren't used to seeing goaltending like this.

The team has invested a lot in Gillies. What do they have to lose at this point giving him the chance to back up Rittich? Really this should be his opportunity as the current backup can't get it done. The bar for the Flames backup right now is possibly at a historical low. If Gillies can't outplay Smith there's no point in him being part of the organization after this season. Gillies only has to be below average to be an upgrade on Smith who is amongst worst in the league. Until a trade opportunity arises I think you have to go this route as the Flames owe it to the team and they owe Gillies a chance to prove if he can or cannot play at the NHL level. There's really nothing to lose outside of some hurt feelings but Treliving and Peters are getting paid to win not caress player feelings.

[Monahammer]

I personally do not want smith to mentor rittich at all.

[Imported_Aussie]

Smith has to go, but like Jiri said, it has to be done the right way. You deal from a position of strength, at a time when you have options in the market. Unless your hand is forced. If Rittich is out longer, then you may be forced into a move, but otherwise you take 1-1 from Smith, give Gillies a game, see how you go. The luxury the flames have in building up a buffer in the standings is that losing a game or two doesn't put playoffs in jeopardy.
Fans play the short game, the GM has to play a longer game

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Imported_Aussie

Fans play the short game, the GM has to play a longer game

Nobody is saying the GM needs to make a trade today or tomorrow. However you can question why Gillies wouldn't get an opportunity. Smith's .886 SV% ranks 47th out of 48 NHL goaltenders. What exactly do you have to lose at this point starting Gillies over him? It's very unlikely Gillies would have a worse save percentage than Smith over the same amount of games unless you believe Gillies is a special kind of bad like Smith.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Nobody is saying the GM needs to make a trade today or tomorrow. However you can question why Gillies wouldn't get an opportunity. Smith's .886 SV% ranks 47th out of 48 NHL goaltenders. What exactly do you have to lose at this point starting Gillies over him?

Sure, give Gillies an opportunity. There really isn't much to lose at this point (besides Gillies' confidence if he gets lit up). But at this point it's a hail mary. The guy is rocking a .864 SV% in the AHL this year - he doesn't even crack the top 50 in the league. So Gillies has actually been playing worse in the AHL than Smith has been playing in the NHL. Maybe he plays better against NHL shooters than AHL shooters, but I doubt it.

[Hockeyguy15]

Hard to say since the Flames are a much better team than Stockton. I haven't really been following the Heat so I can't say, but has he been hung out to dry or is he letting in a bunch of bad goals in the AHL?

[schteve_d]

Who is San Jose's third string goalie right now, I wonder?

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

I personally do not want smith to mentor rittich at all.

Agreed. While Smith seems like a nice guy I don't like the way he won't own up to him being the issue in interviews and instead says the team was not good enough when they clearly were. I also never want Ritter thinking about playing that far in his net.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Nobody is saying the GM needs to make a trade today or tomorrow. However you can question why Gillies wouldn't get an opportunity. Smith's .886 SV% ranks 47th out of 48 NHL goaltenders. What exactly do you have to lose at this point starting Gillies over him? It's very unlikely Gillies would have a worse save percentage than Smith over the same amount of games unless you believe Gillies is a special kind of bad like Smith.

Gillies was pretty darn bad last season. The shots from center ice scare me. But at this point, what does the team have to lose? Maybe Gillies spots Philly a goal or 2, but Mike Smith's been doing that on a regular basis since the start of the season. At best, give him shot and he might surprise everyone.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Phagoof

Another problem is teams no Smith's weakness. Five hole. He is just brutal at closing his legs.

Sounds like my ex wife.

[robertsfanatic]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I advise anyone to go to the NHL app and watch the game highlights from the Bruins broadcast. On the 1st goal the announcer is questioning why Smith is so deep in the net and on the 5th goal the announcer was trying to figure out how DeBrusk had so much net to shoot at from such a bad angle. It's pretty clear that people around the league outside of Calgary aren't used to seeing goaltending like this.

I was watching the Boston feed and they interviewed Joe Sacco (Bruins asst coach) and even he remarked that they have to take advantage of a goalie who was fighting the puck.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Sure, give Gillies an opportunity. There really isn't much to lose at this point (besides Gillies' confidence if he gets lit up). But at this point it's a hail mary. The guy is rocking a .864 SV% in the AHL this year - he doesn't even crack the top 50 in the league. So Gillies has actually been playing worse in the AHL than Smith has been playing in the NHL. Maybe he plays better against NHL shooters than AHL shooters, but I doubt it.

I'm not arguing that Gillies has been good, but the inexperienced defense in front of him has to be playing a huge part in his terrible AHL numbers this year for a guy to fall that far off the map.

There is no reason to keep playing Smith when he can't even be relied upon to make the easy saves. He may not set the world on fire given the chance, but I guarantee you Gillies doesn't let the kind of beer league garbage goals in that Smith has been doing each and every game.

[Royle9]

I think we're all on the same page here, some posters just get more emotional when it comes to expressing their feelings but lets not turn on each other if we can help it. Everyone expresses emotion different, we're all die hard fans of the flames for the most part so lets stay on track and not stoop down to Edm level fanboys.

1. Smith's time is done, lets get that straight.
2. We all know he will NOT be here next year.

Now for this year, sure we need to try and find a replacement but its not going to be easy because Smith is going to NEED to be part of any deal we make as we cant afford to bury him in the minors and still be on the hook for 3.5 mil.

• Our cap space is not ideal, Tkachuk will be up for roughly 7M raise next year giving us very little room to make a big "splash" unfortunately.
  
• Given our prospect depth I personally don't want to give up our 1st rounder this year unless the return nets us a player between 18-24/25 at most with skill NOW.
  
• Its safe to say Flames management know we're in trouble, I think Tre is actively working the phones and hoping to find something and I have faith he will but its the cost that worries me. Someone posted a trade with St.Louis that seems "okay" at a distance but long term I'm not sure I like it.

Smith + Frolik + 1st for Schenn and Allan - To me this is an "all in" move to try and win a cup this year. Not totally against it but not sure I like having to give up a 1st, I'd prefer a 2nd or 3rd and maybe a prospect with "upside" but that may not be enough.

Its tough, we need to do something if we want to go far in the playoffs here but finding that "perfect" trade is going to be a huge challenge. I feel if we do see one it will be a Tre deal out of left field that nobody knew was possible.

[Ped]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Sure, give Gillies an opportunity. There really isn't much to lose at this point (besides Gillies' confidence if he gets lit up). But at this point it's a hail mary. The guy is rocking a .864 SV% in the AHL this year - he doesn't even crack the top 50 in the league. So Gillies has actually been playing worse in the AHL than Smith has been playing in the NHL. Maybe he plays better against NHL shooters than AHL shooters, but I doubt it.

If Gillies gets lit up, then you don't worry about his confidence because I would think that would mean he's pretty much done in the eyes of the Flames.


An sometimes goalies are voodoo - Cal Peterson was horrible in the AHL this year but has so far been very good at the NHL level.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

I'm not arguing that Gillies has been good, but the inexperienced defense in front of him has to be playing a huge part in his terrible AHL numbers this year for a guy to fall that far off the map.



There is no reason to keep playing Smith when he can't even be relied upon to make the easy saves. He may not set the world on fire given the chance, but I guarantee you Gillies doesn't let the kind of beer league garbage goals in that Smith has been doing each and every game.

Agreed.

Before acquiring another goalie, I think we have to give Gillies a shot.

Remember, Rittich fell apart last season and was awful in pre-season. Sometimes it’s just about timing and opportunity. Philly tomorrow would be a good chance to give Gillies a go.