10-29-2016, 01:17 PM
|
#701
|
|
Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: North Vancouver
|
Some pretty good poll numbers for Clinton released today from Ipsos:
Florida: +4
North Carolina +4
Ohio: tied
Arizona: +1
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...ecast/updates/
Then again, there's a good chance these leads might evaporate by this time next week once yesterday's email scandal hits the polls.
|
|
|
|
10-29-2016, 08:36 PM
|
#702
|
|
Referee
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Over the hill
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunk
That's not very many people.
|
Hah. Oops.
Also, it is very telling that apparently one ballot was cast by .5 of a person. Proof that the election is rigged.
|
|
|
|
The Following User Says Thank You to Iowa_Flames_Fan For This Useful Post:
|
|
|
10-30-2016, 09:52 AM
|
#703
|
|
Franchise Player
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Maryland State House, Annapolis
|
Some good and bad news for both in this batch of polls
AZ: Trump 44, Clinton 42, Johnson 4, Stein 1 (CBS/YouGov)
CO: Clinton 42, Trump 39, Johnson 7, Stein 2 (CBS/YouGov)
FL: Trump 46, Clinton 42, Johnson 4, Stein 2 (NYT/Sienna); Clinton 45, Trump 44, Johnson 5, Stein 2 (NBC/WSJ); Clinton 48, Trump 47, Johnson 1, Stein 0 (Gravis)
NC: Clinton 47, Trump 41, Johnson 8 (NBC/WSJ); Clinton 49, Trump 47, Johnson 1 (Gravis); Clinton 48, Trump 45, Johnson (CBS/YouGov)
__________________
"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
|
|
|
|
|
10-31-2016, 02:02 PM
|
#704
|
|
First Line Centre
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: Victoria, BC
|
Trump now has a 25 percent chance of winning according to 538.
|
|
|
|
|
10-31-2016, 04:55 PM
|
#705
|
|
Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: North Vancouver
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Drak
Trump now has a 25 percent chance of winning according to 538.
|
Holy crap, that's a massive jump from just a couple of days ago when he was at 19%. We're officially back in scary territory, folks. I have a bad feeling this thing is gonna end up being a nail biter right to the finish, and all because of Anthony Weiner's laptop. Unreal.
|
|
|
|
|
10-31-2016, 05:08 PM
|
#706
|
|
First Line Centre
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: Victoria, BC
|
NBC Monkey Tracking poll has Clinton up +7 in a two way. +6 four way. What about a threeway?
|
|
|
|
|
The Following User Says Thank You to Drak For This Useful Post:
|
|
|
10-31-2016, 06:38 PM
|
#707
|
|
Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: North Vancouver
|
|
|
|
|
|
10-31-2016, 06:45 PM
|
#708
|
|
Looooooooooooooch
|
Clinton needs to bring up Trumps tax records. Any day now?
|
|
|
|
|
10-31-2016, 06:57 PM
|
#709
|
|
First Line Centre
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: Victoria, BC
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Iggy City
Clinton needs to bring up Trumps tax records. Any day now?
|
Let's see if the Russian connection story catches fire.
|
|
|
|
|
10-31-2016, 07:09 PM
|
#710
|
|
The new goggles also do nothing.
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Calgary
|
This kinda explains why Clinton's at 75% to win despite having a larger lead in the popular vote than Obama won over Romney with, having an 85% chance to win the popular vote. Just because she makes big gains in Texas, enough to shift the popular vote close to a full point, doesn't mean she'll get those EC votes.
Also their model doesn't take into account any ground game advantage.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...re-increasing/
__________________
Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position.
But certainty is an absurd one.
|
|
|
|
|
10-31-2016, 07:15 PM
|
#711
|
|
Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Crowsnest Pass
|
Betting odds have been fairly stable since Friday night, 75/24
https://electionbettingodds.com
The money does not know where to go with the latest news.
|
|
|
|
|
10-31-2016, 07:22 PM
|
#712
|
|
Retired
|
I don't believe Trump has any actual chance of winning, even with these new so called revelations. As awful as Hillary Clinton is as a candidate, I firmly believe Trump has a chance of winning closer to zero. Those polls are flattering to him. Come voting day he's going to get crushed.
|
|
|
|
|
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Kjesse For This Useful Post:
|
|
|
10-31-2016, 09:15 PM
|
#713
|
|
The new goggles also do nothing.
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Calgary
|
__________________
Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position.
But certainty is an absurd one.
|
|
|
|
|
10-31-2016, 09:20 PM
|
#714
|
|
Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: North Vancouver
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by photon
|
Lol, you had me for about 10 seconds. And yes, I just about had a heart attack.
|
|
|
|
|
The Following User Says Thank You to direwolf For This Useful Post:
|
|
|
10-31-2016, 09:31 PM
|
#715
|
|
Franchise Player
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by direwolf
Holy crap, that's a massive jump from just a couple of days ago when he was at 19%. We're officially back in scary territory, folks. I have a bad feeling this thing is gonna end up being a nail biter right to the finish, and all because of Anthony Weiner's laptop. Unreal.
|
6% increase in odds is nothing. It still means Clinton has a 75% chance of winning. Oh the drama! The electoral path is still pretty much zero for Trump. Start worrying when it's 50/50. As it is I still don't see enough activation of the Republican base to move the needle. The support Trump has is what he's got. He isn't moving above that. Silver is softening the numbers to hedge his bets, just like he rest of thon media. If they had any sack and called Trump on his bull#### this would be done and Drumpf would have been put away a long time ago.
|
|
|
|
|
10-31-2016, 10:21 PM
|
#716
|
|
Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: California
|
Hillary has lost 2% of her 7% lead and still leads by 5% which is more then Obama beat Romeny by and that election wasn't considered particularly close. The risk is that the polls
Today haven't fully baked in the FBI yet.
I'm not worried until around 3% as that puts it within polling error.
|
|
|
|
|
11-01-2016, 06:34 AM
|
#717
|
|
Franchise Player
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Calgary
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
Hillary has lost 2% of her 7% lead and still leads by 5% which is more then Obama beat Romeny by and that election wasn't considered particularly close. The risk is that the polls
Today haven't fully baked in the FBI yet.
I'm not worried until around 3% as that puts it within polling error.
|
That methodology is a bit flawed, but as per your definition I imagine you are now worried this morning.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...-early-voting/
|
|
|
|
|
11-01-2016, 07:06 AM
|
#718
|
|
Franchise Player
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Maryland State House, Annapolis
|
Trump has a 40% chance of winning, or more to the point he needs some combination that yields 35 electoral college votes. But that obviously isn't that many votes. Ohio is his, there hasn't been a poll showing Hillary in front there for a long time. Polls in Florida have been slightly towards Hillary, but within the margin of error and when you apply the "Florida ######ation scale" it probably means a Trump win there too. So I'm giving him a 40% chance he can get the remaining 35 votes he needs. North Carolina is his biggest problem though, if he could simply hold that we'd be looking at a straight up 50/50 race.
__________________
"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
|
|
|
|
|
11-01-2016, 07:35 AM
|
#719
|
|
The new goggles also do nothing.
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Calgary
|
Florida still Republicans with a razor thin lead in early voting.
Total Ballots cast: 4,077.521
Total Vote By Mail: 2,054,519 (50.4%)
Total Early Vote: 2,023,002 (49.6%)
Republicans: 1,648,603 (40.4%)
Democrats: 1,632,677 (40.0%)
NPA: 769,241 (19.6%)
Total Margin: GOP +0.39%
Unreturned vote-by-mail ballots look like this: 41D-35R-24NPA, meaning 79,658 Democrats apparently think watching cat videos is more important than putting a stamp on their ballot.
http://steveschale.squarespace.com/?SSScrollPosition=0
__________________
Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position.
But certainty is an absurd one.
|
|
|
|
|
11-01-2016, 07:39 AM
|
#720
|
|
Franchise Player
|
A 25% chance of anything happening is a significant chance. Of course it's worth being concerned about, especially when it's a 25% chance of... this.
__________________
"The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 09:44 PM.
|
|
