[Rumour] Giordano Extension. Kypreos: Starting point is $72 million over 8 years

[Strange Brew]

Big variable here is the future salary cap. Hockey revenues seem to be growing every year but the value of the Canadian $ relative to the greenback is a big unknown. One school of thought is that the Canadian $ is down right now and ultimately has nowhere to go but up.

But I also remember a 65 cent dollar too.

I would hate to bank on predicting where that will go. I wonder how much the league invests in models helping teams predict where the cap could go, or if that is solely up to the teams.

I suppose the CBA prohibits a contract that is indexed to the cap...

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by albertGQ

Hamilton pushed for five years and we wanted 7.

My bad. I understood differently.

[Finger Cookin]

Originally Posted by DJones

You want to have a 41 year old to have a 6.75 million cap hit?

Crazy

Giordano would be 40 years old in year 8 of his extension, should his extension be that long.

[heep223]

Gio needs to be the highest paid player on the team for the next four years. Our cup window opens in the 2016-17 season. If we win a cup with Gio, I could care less if we're overpaying him for 1 or 2 seasons after that. And yes, I believe the core pieces are in place to win a Stanley Cup in 2 - 3 seasons, possibly multiple cups (unlike previous poster).

Yes there are injury concerns with Gio but nothing recurring, some of them have been complete flukes (last season's). The guy is obviously in top condition and devoted off the ice.

The price we're going to have to pay to keep him is that he's going to be overpaid for the last 1 or 2 seasons on his deal. As long as the AAV is <$8M on a 5 or 6 year contract, I'll be OK with it. Fully expecting some more Treliving wizardry though.

I'm surprised that there's so much talk about trading our captain and best player. Do you really think that Gio is going to refuse to sign a five or six year deal? Management has identified him as the leader of this team. They're not trading him. He probably wants to win a cup here. Calgary is considered an up and coming team, they have the best coach in the league, has become a very attractive destination, etc....Would you want to stay here, after leading the team to the season they had, and how bright the future is, and how supportive the fans are, and how competent the management is?

I'm much more worried that Hudler is going to be the odd man out. He would leave a HUGE hole.

[Finger Cookin]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Big variable here is the future salary cap. Hockey revenues seem to be growing every year but the value of the Canadian $ relative to the greenback is a big unknown. One school of thought is that the Canadian $ is down right now and ultimately has nowhere to go but up.

But I also remember a 65 cent dollar too.

I would hate to bank on predicting where that will go. I wonder how much the league invests in models helping teams predict where the cap could go, or if that is solely up to the teams.

I suppose the CBA prohibits a contract that is indexed to the cap...

If the dollar continues to soften, but the league continues to grow revenue as it has under the salary cap, and the league adds revenue from expansion teams as it is expected to, I could see the cap at $80M in 5-6 years. If you have the same environment but with a stable dollar, $90M isn't out of the question. It would probably be closer to $88M though.

[Hugh Jahrmes]

Originally Posted by Finger Cookin

Giordano would be 40 years old in year 8 of his extension, should his extension be that long.

Feels like he turns 38 next week

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Agreed. How many players have career years at 32, one year before becoming UFAs? There is little precedent for what Gio's camp is allegedly asking for, and it's coming up at a time when cap management is tighter than ever, and younger stars (of whom the Flames have several) are getting paid more than ever.

It had crossed my mind that his agent saw this trend and was pushing to get some ink on paper ASAP, doing his best to insulate Gio from this shift that appears to see younger players demanding elite money with potential weighted far more heavily than the past, and some pretty shockingly short resumes.

I think many of these moves are seen as pure desperation by teams/management forced to overcompensate because they clearly lack the draw of competing clubs for a multitude of reasons. I'm sure agents of players like Gio will try to paint this exact picture, but BT easily counters with a guy like Tarasenko, and the fact that we have some pretty talented forwards working towards that level themselves (not to mention what suddenly feels like respectable defensive prospect depth).
I've been up for 24 hours now due to some weird schedule changes, and I'll admit the 8 year thing is probably a bit long. It likely takes 6-7 to get the cap hit anywhere near something this site is prepared to accept though.. Do we really think that Gio will struggle as a #4 after a dozen seasons?
Management has gone public sharing their belief that his contributions go far beyond game days..
Take 8% of the cap and look at salaries over since it was instituted and I think (again.. Tired as hell, may be wrong) that would probably put him in second pairing territory.

Again, if the be all and end all overall compensation Giordano has decided on is around 50-55M (a number I made up; can't be too much lower than that I'd there is any truth to the 72M rumor), are we willing to give that to him over 5 years? I think that even a 7x7.15 leaves us with a larger window for serious contention than 10x5. I'm sure if they were asking for an 8x9 contract we can quickly deduce that it's not backloaded, and that mark and his agent realize the majority of value he would provide to the team come in the first half of it and would have it front loaded accordingly.

[Red Menace]

I love Gio to death, but giving him more than a 7 mil cap hit over 5 years might cripple this team.
I'd give him 9 mill for 3 years...but after that the salary has to go down considerably. How many great D man are there over 35?

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by heep223

Gio needs to be the highest paid player on the team for the next four years.

No, he doesn't need to be the highest paid for the next 4 years. That is ridiculous to suggest. Giordano may be our best player next year, but it is likely that he maintains that stature for much longer. With Gaudreau, Monahan, Brodie, Hamilton and Bennett on the roster it is very likely one of these players surpasses Giodano in short order. You do not pay a player for what he has done, you pay him for what he projects to do. Giordano will be good for likely 3-4 years, then see his talent level fade. You pay for the first three years and understand that he is going to tumble down the lineup after that. Anything more and you strap your team with an ungodly expensive contract playing on the bottom pairing, which is a recipe for disaster.

I still contend that you give Giordano the $9 million he wants in year one, and possibly year two, but after that you have to reduce the amount on his contract by the max allowable to reduce the load at the end. Something like 9, 8.5, 7, 5, 4.5 for a $6.8 hit. I'd give him 3 years of NMC, and 1 year of limited NTC, but the final year being available to anyone in trade. Protects the team in the long run and gives the player what he wants.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by New Era

No, he doesn't need to be the highest paid for the next 4 years. That is ridiculous to suggest. Giordano may be our best player next year, but it is likely that he maintains that stature for much longer. With Gaudreau, Monahan, Brodie, Hamilton and Bennett on the roster it is very likely one of these players surpasses Giodano in short order. You do not pay a player for what he has done, you pay him for what he projects to do. Giordano will be good for likely 3-4 years, then see his talent level fade. You pay for the first three years and understand that he is going to tumble down the lineup after that. Anything more and you strap your team with an ungodly expensive contract playing on the bottom pairing, which is a recipe for disaster.

I still contend that you give Giordano the $9 million he wants in year one, and possibly year two, but after that you have to reduce the amount on his contract by the max allowable to reduce the load at the end. Something like 9, 8.5, 7, 5, 4.5 for a $6.8 hit. I'd give him 3 years of NMC, and 1 year of limited NTC, but the final year being available to anyone in trade. Protects the team in the long run and gives the player what he wants.

Oh yeah totally ridiculous to suggest that our best player is going to be making the most money . Treliving has said that they're creating an internal salary structure with the Brodie and Hamilton deals. Gio is going to be at the top of the heap, as he should be. Monny and Johnny will likely skip the bridge deal and sign long term contracts with a manageable cap hit, and it will be less than Gio's for the next four years.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Gio should be at the top of the heap for the next year or two, but not so sure about after that. You can't front load the contracts in the same way as the old CBA, so it will be tough.
On a slightly different track: Do players even care about what their cap hit is? In other words, do players look at AAV, or actual salary when they are having dinner with their NHL buddies and comparing cars/houses/trophy wives?

[Hugh Jahrmes]

Originally Posted by New Era

No, he doesn't need to be the highest paid for the next 4 years. That is ridiculous to suggest. Giordano may be our best player next year, but it is likely that he maintains that stature for much longer. With Gaudreau, Monahan, Brodie, Hamilton and Bennett on the roster it is very likely one of these players surpasses Giodano in short order. You do not pay a player for what he has done, you pay him for what he projects to do. Giordano will be good for likely 3-4 years, then see his talent level fade. You pay for the first three years and understand that he is going to tumble down the lineup after that. Anything more and you strap your team with an ungodly expensive contract playing on the bottom pairing, which is a recipe for disaster.



I still contend that you give Giordano the $9 million he wants in year one, and possibly year two, but after that you have to reduce the amount on his contract by the max allowable to reduce the load at the end. Something like 9, 8.5, 7, 5, 4.5 for a $6.8 hit. I'd give him 3 years of NMC, and 1 year of limited NTC, but the final year being available to anyone in trade. Protects the team in the long run and gives the player what he wants.

Like I stated earlier.. People are ignoring overall compensation and posting cap hits they feel will work. It honestly reminds me of the whole "going to buy a new vehicle" process, where the salesman keeps trying to add things in, because it "only costs $11.32 biweekly for this", while skirting the final cost discussions haha.

If he asks for 72 million, and we say our walk away number is 34 million.. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think we have a deal.


I really think people are having trouble dissociating salaries from the 39-50M cap era with where we are today, and moving forward.

Instead of seeing a 7, or 8M hit, look at the number as a percentage of the ceiling.

Now, when you're using the Internet machine to pull comparable a from a few seasons ago, do the same thing. Gotta view it objectively

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[Red Menace]

I think a big point for me is that Gio cannot be seen as a comparable to all stud D-men in the league who are in their 20's (and healthy).
No way a 31 year old should be paid the same cap hit, nor have the same kind of term as players in their 20's. Doing that is a sure way to cripple a team.

[Hugh Jahrmes]

He wouldn't be the same as all. I'd we remove the outliers, such as contracts which would clearly be designed to circumvent the current CBA, and look at non-RFA stud salaries, where do we sit?

Do you think Gio is a Jay Bouwmeester comparable?

Conversely, paying a bunch of 20 something kids on potential while refusing to properly compensate proven elite players makes you the.. Eh I won't go there lol


Edit - Imma put the phone down for a bit.. Always been a Gio fan but was firmly in the hardline "if he won't budge from those ridiculous demands, move him" camp. At the same time, I've watched a lot of Flames hockey over the past two seasons - like, actually gotten into it after a 2-3 year run of
Growing disappointment. Woke up my baby from an excited whoop, scared my baby from one, and I really think the guy is a truly elite player at this time in his career. Guys thinking that we can pay 1-2 seasons "at the 9 mil he wanted" then axe to the maximum allowable amount to bring the cap hit down to Sekora territory are kidding themselves. Like I said before, I'm sure that the 8x9M proposed by Gio's camp had the first few years pegged at or near league max, with a gradual reduction to end up at 9M AAV.
If the best of the best are getting 10-12M/season for considerable stretches (as was pointed out, guys like Weber, Suter, Parise etc had salaries like this that were masked by now-invalid tactics), to tell Gio that he's worth nowhere near that for even a few seasons, and worth 1/3 of that in 5 years will likely be viewed as disrespect and I'm sure BT doesn't come out low balling.

[saillias]

Originally Posted by Hugh Jahrmes

He wouldn't be the same as all. I'd we remove the outliers, such as contracts which would clearly be designed to circumvent the current CBA, and look at non-RFA stud salaries, where do we sit?

Only defenseman by your strict criteria is Chara

[Hugh Jahrmes]

Originally Posted by saillias

Only defenseman by your strict criteria is Chara

Provide data and let's have a discussion then, but I think guys are really looking at the number like "wow 7M is a lot of money for someone his age" without considering the actual slice of the pie that represents. Remember, our last captain played hardball and got 7M when the cap was what, 39M? It will literally be double that soon. Iggy was one of the best to do it at the time, and I would argue that Gio is currently playing near that level.

To effectively tell him he's 50-60% of that.. *Shrug*

That's enough internet for me today


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[heep223]

Originally Posted by Hugh Jahrmes

Provide data and let's have a discussion then, but I think guys are really looking at the number like "wow 7M is a lot of money for someone his age" without considering the actual slice of the pie that represents. Remember, our last captain played hardball and got 7M when the cap was what, 39M? It will literally be double that soon. Iggy was one of the best to do it at the time, and I would argue that Gio is currently playing near that level.

To effectively tell him he's 50-60% of that.. *Shrug*

That's enough internet for me today


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No, you're doing a good job and I agree with you. A lot of these posters are overly simplistic with the age argument, not taking % of cap into account etc

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug

On a slightly different track: Do players even care about what their cap hit is? In other words, do players look at AAV, or actual salary when they are having dinner with their NHL buddies and comparing cars/houses/trophy wives?

I've always wondered this as well and I think that actual salary is what's more important. Just as what I get paid on my next pay check is more important to me then my average over the last 5 years. The cap hit is something for the GM to worry about. Players want to see the numbers on their pay check.

In saying that, I think management is quick to point out in negotiations that Canadian players are paid in USD. Suddenly someone who thinks that 7mil isn't quite fair for Gio has to note that in today's dollar, 7mil becomes ~8.92 CDN. In actual salary (which IMO is more important for the player then their cap hit), 8.92 is more then fair for a 33 year old player.

I'm still a firm believer that Wizard Treliving will get Gio's agent to sign his client at a contract for >7 mil cap hit. A nice friendly 6.5mil cap hit is very team friendly, and pays Gio ~8.2mil/year in CDN dollars. That's extremely fair for both sides.

[Yoho]

HughJahrmes every time I read your posts it's like I'm sitting down to an Amway sales pitch " It doesn't cost money, it makes money".

People have every right to be scared off of signing over a blank cheque to someone who will be starting a contract at 33.

The wrong move here literally cripples this franchise for years to come and usher out young stars that we really need. It's far from cut and dry case.

[Hugh Jahrmes]

I'm with ya HW, if I'm coming across as though I want him
signed to some albatross that'll weigh us down for the better part of a decade that's the furthest thing from the truth.. When Treleving's sorcery have us all enjoying front row seats to Shock&Awe2K15 and the signing is announced, I'll be as excited as any fan out there. From taxes to culture to what the team has rapidly become and is projecting to be in terms of measurable results (had to avoid using Oiler buzzwords there lol), I think that there are a lot of elements tbat come together and make an attractive move for both sides.

It's better to stay grounded as fans, and have expectations in line with what players of this calibre are worth though. I'd be embarrassed to see a Gio extension that's (realistically) team friendly, only to see 70 pages of people already running him out of town for it, getting their chicken little 2021/22 act prepped.


Yoho, I'll have you driving your own BMW within two years if you can commit to the program bud

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[handgroen]

Originally Posted by FireItUp

I'm pretty sure Hudler wants Gio to sign!.
https://instagram.com/p/5B4pJAyoIe/

can anyone explain the joke on hudler's t-shirt?
pigeon and gio's face i don't get it?