Russia invades Ukraine

[calumniate]

Yeah.. Baron was starting to sound like Vladdy P himself

[undercoverbrother]

Boo Russia

[IliketoPuck]

Originally Posted by Firebot

Baron?

[..snip]

Ignore his posts.

Yea, responding to that one lengthy Rybar post wasn't going to be a value add to the thread. Any definitive statements one way or the other right now are vastly premature.

Seems, generally, that UKR is having some success both in the south and east. If it is a temporary, or more permanent success, will show through in the coming weeks/months.

One thing that I would really like to see from the West is some additional heavy weaponry supplied. To date I don't think we've supplied any western MBTs or aircraft. HIMARs clearly changed the battle space in UKRs favor. I would expect that other heavy weapons systems would be used equally as well.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Sort of, but only if usage is cut considerably. The EU has about 900 TWh in storage currently and has capacity to store about 1,100 TWh if they fill to 100%. But they use about 4,000 TWh a year with 1,600 TWh of that coming from Russia. So they need to cut usage by about 15-20% this winter if Russia cuts its supply off. It's possible, but they've failed to do it so far (summer gas usage was only about 10% below normal).

Most of the talk of storage reserves being enough to cover their needs through the winter was predicated on Russia still supplying some gas. And even in a normal year they draw down about 80% of their reserves during the winter, so the gas in storage isn't necessarily extra supply; it's part of what they use normally in addition to the usual pipeline supplies in the winter months.

I'm going to just trust Perun as a source here.

Additionally, the way EU is acting is also just a huge clue as to should we be worried or not, and I would say they're just not.

Russia just used their trump card, suspending gas deliveries indefinitely, and the reaction from Europe at this point is mostly a big ho-hum. That's it, that's the big threat Russia had economically, and they just spent it. They already did "it".

Will it hurt? Sure, but in the sense that it will be expensive as feck to deal with and create all sorts of inconveniences, like turning the room temperature to 18 instead of 20 and stuff, and yes it will create economic pain, and some companies and countries are going to get hit pretty bad economically.

But in the sense that we need to worry about freezing to death? Nah. (Not unless climate change throws some really big unexpected curveballs.)

There's a reason "first world problems" was a meme. As nations and especially EU as a whole is rich. We can take it, especially when the population is for once pretty united about something.

EDIT: I don't want to downplay it too much either, the amount of work needed to deal with the situation is enormous, obviously. It's a very big deal.

Just not "life or death".

[Huntingwhale]

Just got word a few minutes ago that the final member of my wife's family, her step-father, was able to finally escape Kozacha Lopan (north of Kharkiv city by the border) and is safely with his family in Belgorod. Is it ideal to run to the country that invaded you? Hell no. But after more than 6 months of constant shelling he is finally free from daily hell fire. After some R & R with family, will be making the journey to Poland to join the rest of his family.

To say my wife and her Mom are relieved is an understatement. Immense relief for all of us.

Also want to add that this dude (Sacha) is a ####ing hero. I posted months ago of my wife being trapped in KL. When my wife was able to escape, he literally drove among freshly destroyed Russian military equipment and literally over dead bodies on the highway to Kharkiv to bring my wife, cousin and friend to the train station. Over a month ago he managed to get 4 other family members on an evacuation bus, with all those people now safely in Poland. He stayed behind alone to bide his time until it was his turn to get out. Can only imagine what it was like for him to live alone in a basement not knowing if he'd ever get out, surrounded by constant shelling. After 8 years of sobriety he gave in and was back on the bottle during that time. But no one can ever hold that against him. You do what you got to do to at least try and get some semblance of sleep and numbness to what is going on around you.

Strangely enough, his sister who he is with now is one of those dummies who thinks this is all Ukraine Nazis, Bandera and other nonsense causing this violence. I would love to be a fly on the wall if the topic comes up. Just trying to imagine him telling her about what he went through and her brushing it off and the argument that comes after. My wife and her mother have already cut her out of their lives, we can imagine he will very likely do the same once he leaves.

My MIL and family took a 2,000 km trip from Belogorod to Gdansk, PL to where they are now. He will be doing the same when he's ready. At least we have the journey and rest stops all mapped out. Thankfully there are still many good Russian volunteers in Russia who are helping Ukrainians escape to the EU and are providing rest points and food pickups on the way.

Hopefully once he is back with his wife in Gdansk, I'll be able to finally say that the nightmare is over for my wife and her family.

[Fuzz]

So relieved for you and your family, Huntingwhale, that's awesome. And thanks for sharing.

[FLAMESRULE]

@Huntingwhale thanks for the update and that's great news!!

Was wondering if there is a way that CalPuck can help out your family in Poland somehow? Not sure if there's specific charities/organizations etc. that they've relied on that we could support or if there's ones they know that are supporting the frontlines to help them get the gear they need. Happy to make a donation if there is.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Itse

I'm going to just trust Perun as a source here.

Additionally, the way EU is acting is also just a huge clue as to should we be worried or not, and I would say they're just not.

Russia just used their trump card, suspending gas deliveries indefinitely, and the reaction from Europe at this point is mostly a big ho-hum. That's it, that's the big threat Russia had economically, and they just spent it. They already did "it".

Will it hurt? Sure, but in the sense that it will be expensive as feck to deal with and create all sorts of inconveniences, like turning the room temperature to 18 instead of 20 and stuff, and yes it will create economic pain, and some companies and countries are going to get hit pretty bad economically.

But in the sense that we need to worry about freezing to death? Nah. (Not unless climate change throws some really big unexpected curveballs.)

There's a reason "first world problems" was a meme. As nations and especially EU as a whole is rich. We can take it, especially when the population is for once pretty united about something.

EDIT: I don't want to downplay it too much either, the amount of work needed to deal with the situation is enormous, obviously. It's a very big deal.

Just not "life or death".

No, no one's going to freeze to death. But there will likely be energy rationing and significant economic effects (though Russia will also feel those effects, since they basically have no way of exporting that gas anywhere else).

The reason the EU isn't panicking is likely because they've mostly expected this. And they were really only getting a pittance from Nordstream 1 lately anyway. That pipeline was only delivering about 0.3 TWh per day in recent months, so even if they maintained that until the end of winter, that's only about 60 TWh, or about 1.5% of the EU's annual usage. The bigger effect was from the reduction in flows that happened earlier this year.

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by FLAMESRULE

@Huntingwhale thanks for the update and that's great news!!

Was wondering if there is a way that CalPuck can help out your family in Poland somehow? Not sure if there's specific charities/organizations etc. that they've relied on that we could support or if there's ones they know that are supporting the frontlines to help them get the gear they need. Happy to make a donation if there is.

My wife and I have set up a GoFundMe template for them. We decided to hold off posting it online until her stepdad is back with his wife together. At that point I'll email it to my family and if the mods allow, in a designated place on CP if allowed.

[surferguy]

Huntingwhale - you should be interviewing Sasha right now and get his stories on tape/paper. There is a major story to be told here.

[Firebot]

So apparently, not only is the Kharkhiv counter offensive going, it's apparently doing much much better then expected and took Russians by complete surprise and they are in complete shambles

The total defeat is so much that even Rybar is preparing Russians to accept that Balakliya has fallen with one of Russia's best military units totally surrounded. Yes even Russian propaganda accounts are freaking out.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1567264720595345409

https://twitter.com/user/status/1567238521257181184

Looking at the map, this is just North of Izyum, Russians are totally collapsing

[Fuzz]

"At the moment, Balakliya is in the operational encirclement and in the range of fire of Ukrainian artillery. All entrances are cut off by [enemy] fire."

Blast the ####ing #### outa them.

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by surferguy

Huntingwhale - you should be interviewing Sasha right now and get his stories on tape/paper. There is a major story to be told here.

We are already doing this with my MIL. We'll undoubtedly do the same with her Dad when he's ready. My wife also has 21 pages of memoires from her time she spent under occupation. The plan is to one day get it compiled and share their experiences.

Some of what her Mom has told is so crazy. When she was able to call my wife she obviously had to be very careful what she said and most calls were strictly "I'm alive, all is fine" type of calls. Now that her Mom can speak freely, truly some unreal events and close calls that no one should ever have to live through. I've told a few stories here but honestly I have to be careful until those regions are fully liberated, as I don't want to put any Ukrainians at risk there, even if my wife's family is safe.

We've already made plans for when we go visit them next year to sit them down with a couple cigars, jugs of wine , a tape recorder and get their experiences recorded.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Blast the ####ing #### outa them.

Unfortunately there are still a lot of Ukrainian civilians in these towns which makes everything more difficult. You can't shell their positions if they're in the towns and even if you surround them, you run the risk of depriving civilians of food and medical supplies.

At the same time, the Russians have less incentive to hold land, so hopefully they'll be more likely to retreat from situations like that than the Ukrainians were when they were on the defensive.

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by Firebot

So apparently, not only is the Kharkhiv counter offensive going, it's apparently doing much much better then expected and took Russians by complete surprise and they are in complete shambles

The total defeat is so much that even Rybar is preparing Russians to accept that Balakliya has fallen with one of Russia's best military units totally surrounded. Yes even Russian propaganda accounts are freaking out.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1567264720595345409

https://twitter.com/user/status/1567238521257181184

Looking at the map, this is just North of Izyum, Russians are totally collapsing

be fun to see how Baron spins this one.

[burn_this_city]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1567482535336108032

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

https://twitter.com/user/status/1567482535336108032

This reply

https://twitter.com/user/status/1567483005991526401

[Firebot]

Mark Hertling chimes in

https://twitter.com/user/status/1567470552494784515

https://twitter.com/user/status/1567477697093279744

https://twitter.com/user/status/1567482620996472832

[burn_this_city]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1567469725449420800

[Firebot]

While the Kharkiv offensive is impressive and it looks like their objective is Shevchenkove and beyond (main Russian supply route), Kherson still appears to be the main counter offensive and Ukraine has had some very good successes there in the past 24 hours

Now what does Russia do, do they try to reinforce Kherson or face having Crimea and the whole land bridge at risk? Do they send troops to Kypyansk (supply lines to Izyum and the direction of the Ukraine attack) or face losing Izyum and the whole northern flank?

Russia just lost more territory in 2 days then they gained in 2 months in their full scale Donbas assault that took Severodonetsk.

We are seeing the turning point of the war where Russia has spread itself too much even with its scaled down offensive originally devised at the start of the war, they are trying to plug multiple leaks in their sinking ship and using bubble gum to seal them, it's no longer sticking and the whole ship is going under.

And now new reports that UA has reached Shevchenkove and inside the city, the Ukrainian Blitzkrieg is in motion.