Russia invades Ukraine

[Huntingwhale]

He visited Kyiv a few months ago.

[curves2000]

This is going top be a fascinating fall and winter in the geopolitical aspect of all of this. Putin has Europe by the balls and he knows this. We have EU leader after EU leader and different parliaments and houses of government trying to come up with a variety of different programs and shadow accounting schemes to try and deal with the ever changing cost of energy and this upcoming crisis.

The powerbrokers of Europe in countries like Germany need to wake up and smell the borsch. Rookie hour is officially over. If Putin is laser focused on reducing gas flows to the point where Europeans start to freeze to death, than that is an act of war that needs to be met with severe levels of aggression and a disproportional response back.

I know a lot of people are cheering some of the failures on the battlefield that Russia has incurred during this entire nightmare but the truth of the matter is Putin has been ahead of this from the start. Poor policy decisions from the start on behalf of the global community have led us to this. The level of economic damage, human carnage and environmental effects of all of this is astronomical. 1 man and an entire global community for the most part sitting back like a bunch of idiots debating how to deal with this while the crazed man is coming through with action can sometimes be too much to actually witness.

I don't pretend to know the answers to all of this but I don't think the leaders of the west do either. Perhaps we just need to provide Ukraine with every ounce of military equipment and intelligence they need to get this job done and than see where the cards lie.

[I am Beast]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Not a surprise, now that Russia has confirmed that there's no energy help coming for Europe.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1566745700045668356

From what i read it sounds like the play is to get Germany to leave NATO, if they do that and pledge not to interfere with Russia, they get full access to the pipeline again.

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by curves2000

This is going top be a fascinating fall and winter in the geopolitical aspect of all of this. Putin has Europe by the balls and he knows this. We have EU leader after EU leader and different parliaments and houses of government trying to come up with a variety of different programs and shadow accounting schemes to try and deal with the ever changing cost of energy and this upcoming crisis.

The powerbrokers of Europe in countries like Germany need to wake up and smell the borsch. Rookie hour is officially over. If Putin is laser focused on reducing gas flows to the point where Europeans start to freeze to death, than that is an act of war that needs to be met with severe levels of aggression and a disproportional response back.

I know a lot of people are cheering some of the failures on the battlefield that Russia has incurred during this entire nightmare but the truth of the matter is Putin has been ahead of this from the start. Poor policy decisions from the start on behalf of the global community have led us to this. The level of economic damage, human carnage and environmental effects of all of this is astronomical. 1 man and an entire global community for the most part sitting back like a bunch of idiots debating how to deal with this while the crazed man is coming through with action can sometimes be too much to actually witness.

I don't pretend to know the answers to all of this but I don't think the leaders of the west do either. Perhaps we just need to provide Ukraine with every ounce of military equipment and intelligence they need to get this job done and than see where the cards lie.

I can’t see the doom and gloom on energy supplies in Europe. There will be a scramble, prices will rise and the demand will be met. Some nations will certainly be hurt and have to involve some restrictions on consumption.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by curves2000

If Putin is laser focused on reducing gas flows to the point where Europeans start to freeze to death, than that is an act of war that needs to be met with severe levels of aggression and a disproportional response back.

The West can't force Russia to supply energy. They're a nuclear power. Need a different solution.

[Kasi]

Curves seems to have the oddest views. Every time I check in here and read a post (which isn’t often) it’s headed by some Machiavellian post about how Putin and Russia are so brilliant and are just going to win this time. Or how we need to do something extreme to counter them. Yes energy prices will rise and governments will have to come up with some methods to make ends meet but we should be moving away from reliance on Russia anyway.

The point is the west needs to stay balanced on this. You go in to hard and it could lead to WW3 so they just play things slow and let Ukraine grind it out. Which they seem to be doing well right now as they’re taking ground in both Kherson and Donast.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ThreshedT...88001350488065

[curves2000]

Originally Posted by Kasi

Curves seems to have the oddest views. Every time I check in here and read a post (which isn’t often) it’s headed by some Machiavellian post about how Putin and Russia are so brilliant and are just going to win this time. Or how we need to do something extreme to counter them. Yes energy prices will rise and governments will have to come up with some methods to make ends meet but we should be moving away from reliance on Russia anyway.

The point is the west needs to stay balanced on this. You go in to hard and it could lead to WW3 so they just play throngs slow and let Ukraine grind it out. Which they seem to be doing well right now as they’re taking ground in both Kherson and Donast.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ThreshedT...88001350488065

Just for clarification, I am not pro Putin or pro Russia in this conflict but a lot of what people who do energy security for a living predicated, has happened. There is this notion that Putin won't turn off the taps completely to Europe, how does Europe balance that sudden decrease in supply? Is there sudden expansion of deliveries across all transport methods coming to Europe?

As I said in my post, this is an energy crisis that is being debated every single day in Europe at the highest levels and how to try and get a handle on it. This isn't a small issue and it will only get worse.

From the Financial Times article: "Russia is still supplying gas to Europe via Soviet-era pipelines through Ukraine that have remained open despite the invasion, as well as the South Stream pipeline via Turkey.

But supplies along the northern pipeline routes, including Nord Stream 1 and the pipelines through Ukraine, have fallen by more than 90 per cent between September last year and today, according to Refinitiv data.

Serhiy Makogon, chief executive of Ukraine’s gas transportation pipeline operator, said there were “no signs” Russia planned to compensate by pumping more natural gas through Ukraine.


That's another hand that Putin has to play and will most likely play it if and when he needs to. I had posted an article recently from the Polish PM where he blasted the leaders of the richer EU countries like Germany and France. They have been warned about this time and time again and the countries like Poland have been ignored and brushed aside. Now where are we? Concerned with energy security?

It's easy for a lot of us to just say "pay a little more" "wear a sweater and use a blanket" I just don't know if the electorate in the EU will have the same patience as those of us in North America with plenty of supply. Protests and an uprising is already occurring in Germany with a "This isn't our battle, why are we paying the price" mentality

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/04/w...raine-war.html

It's fascinating from afar if it isn't affecting people to the same degree but I don't know if everybody is in this together.

[Fuzz]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1566965700308131846

That is a twist I did not see coming.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

He visited Kyiv a few months ago.

I didn't realize that, but it makes sense that he would travel to Ukraine to meet Zelenskyy. I was reading about Stiller's family history. His family immigrated from Poland, and I know many Polish people feel a brotherhood with Ukrainians. They share the same faith and like have some shared life experiences based on that. Plus, they are both actors by trade (or at least Zelenskyy was). If they ever make a move about Zelenskyy, and I hope they do, I could see Stiller being someone who would want to play the role.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

https://twitter.com/user/status/1566965700308131846

That is a twist I did not see coming.

Talk about the Army and Navy Store for military weapons...

[burn_this_city]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1567155056532676609

[CroFlames]

Europe isn't going back to the dark ages this winter just because Russia shut off the taps. They will find a way to get through it. Canada and the US can help.

My bet is that Europe outlasts Russia this winter and the orcs tuck tail and run home. Hopefully another Red October is awaiting them when they arrive and Putin goes the way of the Romanovs.

[Huntingwhale]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1567067914607501314

Russians invaders continuing to show what sacks of #### they are by yet another daily attack on civilians in Kharkiv.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

https://twitter.com/user/status/1567155056532676609

Hopefully some good news coming for Huntingwhale soon. Apparently it's much bigger news then even the most optimists around. Russian propaganda channels are telling Russians not to panic...usually that's a good sign it's time to panic.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1567154267949088768

Supposedly Ukraine has just rotated in fresh new NATO trained and equipped troops on a couple of fronts in the recent weeks to replace many of the troops that have been defending in the early months, many who were initially poorly trained and equipped and just hanging on. All the talk has been about Kherson, but UA has also had several new successes on the Donbas front and all of a sudden bam Kharkiv region new counter offensive out of nowhere.

The majority of Russian troops are literally trapped with their backs against the river in Kherson after Putin the Imbecile demanded that all troops protect Kherson and Ukraine feinted the push until all their troops crossed the river and Ukraine blew up the bridges preventing resupply.

[Firebot]

On a side note, Putin's Russia has hit a new milestone of 50000 KIA as of today's tally as per UA estimates.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1567030793221939200

https://twitter.com/user/status/1567085320981696512

Russian losses have been extreme in the past week on the Kherson front. 3000 losses in a few days.

More shade thrown at Putin's Russia from Ukraine

https://twitter.com/user/status/1567069236597587969

[Kasi]

I thought someone was posting here like 2 days ago that Russians were winning and they had destroyed this offensive? Doesn’t really seem like that’s happening.

[CroFlames]

The equipment loss is staggering. When this conflict ends, Russia's military will be decimated.

Japan's chance to take back their islands.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by curves2000

This is going top be a fascinating fall and winter in the geopolitical aspect of all of this. Putin has Europe by the balls and he knows this. We have EU leader after EU leader and different parliaments and houses of government trying to come up with a variety of different programs and shadow accounting schemes to try and deal with the ever changing cost of energy and this upcoming crisis.

The powerbrokers of Europe in countries like Germany need to wake up and smell the borsch. Rookie hour is officially over. If Putin is laser focused on reducing gas flows to the point where Europeans start to freeze to death, than that is an act of war that needs to be met with severe levels of aggression and a disproportional response back.

I know a lot of people are cheering some of the failures on the battlefield that Russia has incurred during this entire nightmare but the truth of the matter is Putin has been ahead of this from the start. Poor policy decisions from the start on behalf of the global community have led us to this. The level of economic damage, human carnage and environmental effects of all of this is astronomical. 1 man and an entire global community for the most part sitting back like a bunch of idiots debating how to deal with this while the crazed man is coming through with action can sometimes be too much to actually witness.

I don't pretend to know the answers to all of this but I don't think the leaders of the west do either. Perhaps we just need to provide Ukraine with every ounce of military equipment and intelligence they need to get this job done and than see where the cards lie.

Europeans aren't freezing to death, that's just Russian propaganda. There's already enough gas in storage to last the winter.

I really recommend watching the previous Perun video I linked, it's quite informative on the topic.

Of course I strongly agree that we should give Ukraine a lot more weapons, as they are quite eager to settle this in the battlefield.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Itse

Europeans aren't freezing to death, that's just Russian propaganda. There's already enough gas in storage to last the winter.

I really recommend watching the previous Perun video I linked, it's quite informative on the topic.

Sort of, but only if usage is cut considerably. The EU has about 900 TWh in storage currently and has capacity to store about 1,100 TWh if they fill to 100%. But they use about 4,000 TWh a year with 1,600 TWh of that coming from Russia. So they need to cut usage by about 15-20% this winter if Russia cuts its supply off. It's possible, but they've failed to do it so far (summer gas usage was only about 10% below normal).

Most of the talk of storage reserves being enough to cover their needs through the winter was predicated on Russia still supplying some gas. And even in a normal year they draw down about 80% of their reserves during the winter, so the gas in storage isn't necessarily extra supply; it's part of what they use normally in addition to the usual pipeline supplies in the winter months.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by Kasi

I thought someone was posting here like 2 days ago that Russians were winning and they had destroyed this offensive? Doesn’t really seem like that’s happening.

Baron?

He is literally posting fake tactical maps from Rybar which is an infamous Russia propaganda Telegram channel and passing them as objective tactical info. This is the same Rybar that claimed that the Crimea base attack was an act of carelessness from local military personnel.

He's been posting pretty blatant Russian propaganda masquerading as objective tactical info since the start of the war.

Look up Rybar on Telegram to see the trash being generated on the propaganda front.

New verified update Sep 6: Ukraine fails yet again on all fronts and has run out of new tanks and are being decimated and just throwing junk at mother Russia (oh it also took a few unimportant places closer to Kherson but Russia left these areas out of goodwill).

tlgrm.ru/channels/@rybar

Ignore his posts.