There would be no point for whoever is next in power to nuke NATO. Imagine being in his place. Putin has just been assassinated. You are the head of the largest country in the world. Order troops back home and you immediately become popular both domestically and internationally. You've just achieved the goal of your life time. You kids are now kids of Russian's president.
Now someone comes to you and says: "Dear sir, as per our nuclear protocol we have to nuke NATO and immediately die to their response". What would you say? I guess, "Screw the protocol".
Who is in line if Putin dies? Are they a reasonable person, a tough guy, a shrew?
Who is in line if Putin dies? Are they a reasonable person, a tough guy, a shrew?
There's no clear heir to the throne, but it's presumed not much would be likely to change regardless of which of the half a dozen candidates eventually rises to power.
Unless there's a coup of some sort, it's going to be some extremely corrupt authoritarian/fascist imperialist.
Last edited by Itse; 09-04-2022 at 07:52 AM.
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There's no clear heir to the throne, but it's presumed not much would be likely to change regardless of which of the half a dozen candidates eventually rises to power.
Unless there's a coup of some sort, it's going to be some extremely corrupt authoritarian/fascist imperialist.
I don’t get how anyone who is educated with means, but isn’t ultra rich- what I assume Pointman is- would stay in that nation.
The Russian nation outlook has to be one of the bleakest in the world ( edit - or perhaps one of the bleakest in the world of nations that have at least somewhat of a middle class that has education and can afford to get out)
Widespread state endorsed corruption is stealing massive amounts wealth from Russians today and future generations. That money is forever gone from the taxpayer as Russia is looking to develop more and more costly oil reserves with lower margins - making them less competitive never mind any sanctions.
Huge risk in future global oil and gas prices.
Even if oil and gas does hold they may be selling at a massive discount compared to historical prices due to the leverage China and other customers hold with their key pipeline investments going to Europe becoming more and more worthless by the day.
A complete uncertainty of how much damage the current US led sanctions are doing to the national. Pointman talked about work around for specific issues- sounds dreadful. Ya he managed without too much pain but imagine needing work arounds for all the sanction related issues for all companies in an entire economy - like the long term trickle effect on the economy is going to be huge. This can’t be understated. Planes aren’t flying due to part issues! It’s only been 6 months - many many more issues will come to light.
Russia can’t innovate anymore - lost vast majority of western tech and investment (and yes they were dependent on our tech)
The population curves of Russia were terrible before Ukraine -actually showing a decrease in population- like holy ####. Now with Ukraine they are killing off their 18-35 year olds …
Like - the future of that nation is so bleak. If you had means - why the hell would you risk staying? Your kids have no future?
The company I work for utilizes of ton of Russian contractors, across IT, software engineers and software developers.
Out of about 80 contractors, about 20-25 have left the country permanently since the start of the invasion. Many others are looking to leave. These are smart, educated young people, that would be contributing members of Russian society. Majority (if not all), privately oppose the invasion.
I would love to see these people take the streets in opposition, but it’s very easy to say that from where we’re sitting. I can only hope this brain drain continues over time, and turns this terrorist shill of a country into a swamp of lowlifes. Not that it matters for Putin and the Russian elite, who will just continue to plunder the country and amass wealth for themselves.
It’s funny, having been born in Ukraine (moved to Canada when I was 4), but growing up speaking Russian, I always identified a bit more with Russian heritage than Ukrainian. I’d even cheer for Russia during sporting events (ie. Canada vs. Russia gold medal games, etc). Most people never even had to think about identifying one vs. the other, in terms of Russian or Ukrainian. We were all the same people. This obviously changed in 2014, and now even more. I’ve literally purged every sort of Russian paraphernalia I’ve ever owned, and don’t ever plan to set foot in that garbage country ever again.
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Last edited by Language; 09-04-2022 at 12:57 PM.
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It’s funny, having been born in Ukraine (moved to Canada when I was 4), but growing up speaking Russian, I always identified a bit more with Russian heritage than Ukrainian. I’d even cheer for Russia during sporting events (ie. Canada vs. Russia gold medal games, etc). Most people never even had to think about identifying one vs. the other, in terms of Russian or Ukrainian. We were all the same people. This obviously changed in 2014, and now even more. I’ve literally purged every sort of Russian paraphernalia I’ve ever owed, and don’t ever plan to set foot in that garbage country ever again.
My wife is the same. She is a Russian speaker from Kharkiv who strongly identifies with the Russian language much more that the Ukrainian language although she speaks both. When she would refer to herself or her talk about life, she would always say things like "we Russian people do this" or "we Russians think like this because...". It was never an issue to interchange both UA and RU like that, because to her it was all the same people simply separated by a border line. All signage in Kharkiv is in Russian. All people there speak Russian. People there have a "rivalry" of sorts with the Western part of the country. Before the war many sympathized a lot more with Russian actions no matter how bad they were. There was no reason to distinguish UA/RU differently, because they are the same in their minds.
That's part of what makes it so painful. She has family in Belgorod (which is still constantly bombing Kharkiv) and they refuse to believe her when they say it's the Russians doing it. Nope, it's all UA Nazis, Bandera and whatever other nonsense has been fed to them. Doesn't matter she was literally there on Feb 24 with bombs dropping on her head and her step dad still trapped. Nope, it's the UA Nazis doing it, end of story. There's no convincing them, so really the only option has been to cut them out of her life.
Although Russian is still her main language, there is definitely a push among her family and friends to speak more Ukrainian and start to shift to that side more. Even after 2014, many in that region would at least justify Russians actions in their own ####ed up way. But Russia did literally the worst thing they could do, and outside of the collaborators, it's probably a hard to shift to 0% who support them now.
Russia deserves everything coming it's way. #### that ####hole to hell. And while I agree it's easy for us to say from the comfort of our sofas that Russians should rise up to help end this war, ultimately it has been said since day 1 that it's on them to fix this and they truly are the only ones who can do it. Ukrainians are the ones paying the ultimate price.
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Russia deserves everything coming it's way. And while I agree it's easy for us to say from the comfort of our sofas that Russians should rise up to help end this war, ultimately it has been said since day 1 that it's on them to fix this and they truly are the only ones who can do it. Ukrainians are the ones paying the ultimate price.
I don't think the average Russian Population is willing to pay the same price that the Ukrainians are paying. Cuz sure as ####, if they rise up, blood will be spilt.
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Captain James P. DeCOSTE, CD, 18 Sep 1993
I believe one of the triggers for the Russian nuclear strike protocol is an assassination of the head of state by an enemy nation.
I might be wrong but from what I remember there’s only like three or four triggers for nuclear strikes:
Imminent threat to Russias nuclear infrastructure.
Survival of the state is threatened.
Assassination of head of state or upper government/military leadership.
Even Russians nuclear doctrine is no good. All ok for Putin to send squad after squad after Zelensky while publically threating he will kill him and his family. Someone does the same to him...nuclear war.
So ####ing stupid.
Anyways, this is all assuming Russia is a sane actor, which clearly they are not. Doctrine will go out the window if he so chooses, as any kind of agreement/doctrine/policy goes out the window when your dealing with the Russian government.
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I was surprised to see Ben Stiller on the sanctions list. I didn't realize he was being publicly supportive of Ukraine. Good for him! Being sanctioned by Russia is a badge of honour.
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"A pessimist thinks things can't get any worse. An optimist knows they can."
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