Russia invades Ukraine

[Baron von Kriterium]

The truth of the Kherson "offensive" is written on the maps for all to see: Ukraine bashed their way into the Russian line with no way to exploit of solidify their breach. AFU attacks; Russia hits them hard, then pulls back. AFU advances; Russia hits them again, but pulls back more. AFU adds forces to salient, Russia flanks them in force and cuts off their rear. Trap closed; turkey shoot.

The Ukrainians came no where close to achieving any type of operational objective.

Situation at the end of 2 Sep 22.
Russian forces destroyed the three AFU pontoon bridges. The Russians left these pontoons in place for four days, presumably to draw AFU forces into the salient where they were easy pickings.



Situation as of 1100 hrs (local) 3 Sep 22:
- AFU could not restore the three river crossings.
- the AFU grouping on the south bank of the Inhulets river remains cut-off.

[Mull]

Originally Posted by Baron von Kriterium

The truth of the Kherson "offensive" is written on the maps for all to see: Ukraine bashed their way into the Russian line with no way to exploit of solidify their breach. AFU attacks; Russia hits them hard, then pulls back. AFU advances; Russia hits them again, but pulls back more. AFU adds forces to salient, Russia flanks them in force and cuts off their rear. Trap closed; turkey shoot.

The Ukrainians came no where close to achieving any type of operational objective.

Situation at the end of 2 Sep 22.
Russian forces destroyed the three AFU pontoon bridges. The Russians left these pontoons in place for four days, presumably to draw AFU forces into the salient where they were easy pickings.



Situation as of 1100 hrs (local) 3 Sep 22:
- AFU could not restore the three river crossings.
- the AFU grouping on the south bank of the Inhulets river remains cut-off.

This author would argue you’re perhaps looking at the offensive to simplistically as with the Russians.

https://www.ft.com/content/dabfe3c0-...4-b8e9350a96de

[Baron von Kriterium]

Originally Posted by Mull

This author would argue you’re perhaps looking at the offensive to simplistically as with the Russians.

https://www.ft.com/content/dabfe3c0-...4-b8e9350a96de

Your article is behind a paywall.

[Mull]

Originally Posted by Baron von Kriterium

Your article is behind a paywall.

Weird. Not subscribe but works for me.

Anyway see if this link works?

https://archive.ph/2022.09.03-130738...4-b8e9350a96de

[Baron von Kriterium]

Originally Posted by Mull

Weird. Not subscribe but works for me.

Anyway see if this link works?

https://archive.ph/2022.09.03-130738...4-b8e9350a96de

How about you summarize the author and make a post?

I have no doubt you can find numerous commentators who disagree with me, just as I can find numerous commentators who agree with me. Time will tell who was right.

[Mull]

Originally Posted by Baron von Kriterium

How about you summarize the author and make a post?

I have no doubt you can find numerous commentators who disagree with me, just as I can find numerous commentators who agree with me. Time will tell who was right.

No. I take you to at least be extremely knowledgeable on these issues. I am not but enjoy reading a variety of views from those who are. That said it’s not a fair debate to have me summarize another authors views and have you disagree with them as I would not be able to substantiate a correct position.

If you’re not interested in reading and responding to a different view of yours from a well respected person that’s is perfectly ok. I assumed you would be that’s all, or at least others reading this would be.

If I see things I find interesting or opposing to a view here I will continue to post however.

[Coach]

Originally Posted by Pointman

So, is common thinking that Putin's death would trigger a WWIII rather than stop this invasion altogether? At the start of the invasion there was a lot of talk about how assassinating Putin would stop this madness altogether. There were even rumors about Putin retreating into a bunker deep in Siberia. Now Putin is not afraid to fly to Kaliningrad. Any flight from Moscow to Kaliningrad is basically at NATO's missile gunpoint. Seems like NATO doesn't believe that this war is a one man's madness.

But that has to come from inside Russia. The US just assassinating Putin only makes him a martyr and proves him right to the obviously millions of Russians who follow him. Russia and the people there need to stop this, no one else can in a way that doesn't result in a larger war.

[Baron von Kriterium]

Originally Posted by Mull

No. I take you to at least be extremely knowledgeable on these issues. I am not but enjoy reading a variety of views from those who are. That said it’s not a fair debate to have me summarize another authors views and have you disagree with them as I would not be able to substantiate a correct position.

If you’re not interested in reading and responding to a different view of yours from a well respected person that’s is perfectly ok. I assumed you would be that’s all, or at least others reading this would be.

If I see things I find interesting or opposing to a view here I will continue to post however.

If I can't read your article, at least do me the courtesy of cutting and pasting something otherwise, how can I respond?

[Mull]

Originally Posted by Baron von Kriterium

If I can't read your article, at least do me the courtesy of cutting and pasting something otherwise, how can I respond?

Oh I got confused because you didn’t acknowledge the link I created specifically for you that should bypass the paywall.

Did you try this? If not I will copy and paste when not on a phone.

https://archive.ph/2022.09.03-130738...4-b8e9350a96de

[Baron von Kriterium]

Originally Posted by Mull

Oh I got confused because you didn’t acknowledge the link I created specifically for you that should bypass the paywall.

Did you try this? If not I will copy and paste when not on a phone.

https://archive.ph/2022.09.03-130738...4-b8e9350a96de

So Freedman's thesis is "Kyiv’s Kherson offensive is not just about retaking territory but eroding Russian will to continue its futile and costly war." OK. I don't think it eroded Russia's will to continue.

[IliketoPuck]

Isn’t the point of the offensive to force the Russian forces in the area to fight? They are cut off from easy resupply, forcing them to use what supplies they have will eventually cause them to be unable to continue.

I would hesitate to make any definitive conclusion about the offensive less than a week into it.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Pointman

So, is common thinking that Putin's death would trigger a WWIII rather than stop this invasion altogether? At the start of the invasion there was a lot of talk about how assassinating Putin would stop this madness altogether. There were even rumors about Putin retreating into a bunker deep in Siberia. Now Putin is not afraid to fly to Kaliningrad. Any flight from Moscow to Kaliningrad is basically at NATO's missile gunpoint. Seems like NATO doesn't believe that this war is a one man's madness.

If a western nation assassinated Putin, I believe Russian nuclear protocol is to launch nukes on the offending nation.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

If a western nation assassinated Putin, I believe Russian nuclear protocol is to launch nukes on the offending nation.

There would be no point for whoever is next in power to nuke NATO. Imagine being in his place. Putin has just been assassinated. You are the head of the largest country in the world. Order troops back home and you immediately become popular both domestically and internationally. You've just achieved the goal of your life time. You kids are now kids of Russian's president.

Now someone comes to you and says: "Dear sir, as per our nuclear protocol we have to nuke NATO and immediately die to their response". What would you say? I guess, "Screw the protocol".

[burn_this_city]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1566067230118486016

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by IliketoPuck

Isn’t the point of the offensive to force the Russian forces in the area to fight? They are cut off from easy resupply, forcing them to use what supplies they have will eventually cause them to be unable to continue.

I would hesitate to make any definitive conclusion about the offensive less than a week into it.

Yeah, I'm not sure how anyone could watch Russia fight for months to gain tiny slivers of land in the Donbas and then turn around and make concrete proclamations about the success of Ukraine's offensive a week into it. Any counteroffensive is going to be extremely slow moving, just like Russia's offensive was.

[Baron von Kriterium]

Originally Posted by IliketoPuck

Isn’t the point of the offensive to force the Russian forces in the area to fight? They are cut off from easy resupply, forcing them to use what supplies they have will eventually cause them to be unable to continue.

I would hesitate to make any definitive conclusion about the offensive less than a week into it.

Originally Posted by opendoor

Yeah, I'm not sure how anyone could watch Russia fight for months to gain tiny slivers of land in the Donbas and then turn around and make concrete proclamations about the success of Ukraine's offensive a week into it. Any counteroffensive is going to be extremely slow moving, just like Russia's offensive was.

The Russians are not cut-off from resupply - easy or otherwise. Where are they cut-off? The aim of an offensive is to defeat the opposing enemy, capture the designated objective(s) and create conditions for subsequent actions. It consists in defeating the enemy with all available means, a decisive attack, the rapid advance of troops into the depths of his battle formation, the destruction and capture of manpower, the capture of weapons, equipment and various objects. Defeat is understood as the infliction of such damage on the enemy, in which he loses the ability to resist.

The aim of an offensive is certainly not to get your enemy to fight; you'd prefer they didn't.

As to the Russian "offensive". I'd be hard-pressed to call what they are engaged in as an offensive right now. They are shaping the battlefield. They are fixing and destroying the AFU. They aren't interested in seizing territory at a pace you think they should. Here is what they're doing:

1. FIND

a. fighters and ground based air defense deny the air space to Ukrainian air force;
b. EW systems detect, deny and degrade Ukrainian comms; and
c. UAVs find Ukrainian positions and observe/correct indirect fires.

2. FIX

a. special forces and snipers find Ukrainian positions and fix the enemy with precision small arms fire; and
b. artillery engages Ukrainians and receives correction/battle damage assessments from UAVs and ground observers.

3. FINISH

a. cyber and EW exploit indirect fire strikes by broadcasting psyops messages to phones and social media; and
b. close combat assets amplify the effects of the indirect fires.

Put another way:

Step #1:#Advance reconnaissance units (often in force, with dozens or hundreds of drones overhead) to assess the situation; draw fire; relay to commanders raw video and geo-coordinates.

Step #2:#With target-correcting drone swarms overhead, relaying real-time strike video, proceed to savage the fortifications with towed and mobile artillery, Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (in gradations of strength and precision), and even horrific#thermobaric munitions#for particularly suitable targets.

Let smoke clear.

Repeat Step #1.

Still something moving there?

Repeat Step #2.

Repeat Step #1.

Dead bodies everywhere?

Step #3:Send in tanks and infantry to mop up.

Step #3 Move to the next fortification.

Step #4 And so on and so forth...

Ideally you want to present the enemy with not just a solvable problem but an unsolvable dilemma. That's where Ukraine is right now: in an unsolvable dilemma.

You might see a Russian offensive soon, though, as it's reported elements of the 3rd Army Corps have moved to Donetsk.

[Coach]

Originally Posted by Pointman

There would be no point for whoever is next in power to nuke NATO. Imagine being in his place. Putin has just been assassinated. You are the head of the largest country in the world. Order troops back home and you immediately become popular both domestically and internationally. You've just achieved the goal of your life time. You kids are now kids of Russian's president.

Now someone comes to you and says: "Dear sir, as per our nuclear protocol we have to nuke NATO and immediately die to their response". What would you say? I guess, "Screw the protocol".

It's obvious at this point that the higher ups are on Putin's side, or he would be dead already. Anyone who would take the place of Putin after an American assassination would not only be a follower of Putin but now one with a true reason for revenge and with at least dozens of millions of followers.

You are a Russian. Obviously not in favour of what's happening, but how would you really feel about the killing of your head of state by a foreign alliance? I'm guessing not great. Even if you aren't on board with Putin, it's not a great existential feeling I'm sure. You don't want to be under some sort of NATO-monitored government do you? Because that's what would have to happen following that type of action.

The only true end to this is revolution within Russia. Sorry.

[afc wimbledon]

TASS reports that Ramzan Kadyrov, Governor of Chechnya, is considering retiring from his governorship after 15 years in the position.

This is both weird and very very significant

[Yikes]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

If a western nation assassinated Putin, I believe Russian nuclear protocol is to launch nukes on the offending nation.

Regardless of protocol I doubt that would happen. Problem is, regardless of whom takes out Putin, the West will be blamed, the propaganda machine will go to work.



I would think the better way to go might be to take out a couple of Putin supporters like Assad, and the guy in Belarus for starters.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

If a western nation assassinated Putin, I believe Russian nuclear protocol is to launch nukes on the offending nation.

This is obviously not 100% serious, but for the record, it wouldn't.

Russian nuclear protocol is actually quite restricted.