Russia invades Ukraine

[White Out 403]

New Axis?

[Firebot]

While it's quiet on the Kherson news front with the total blackout...the daily tally says it's anything but quiet.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1565252696071962627

These are levels of losses not seen since March when Russia famously failed with their convoys to Kyiv. 24 artillery pieces lost means Ukraine must have broken through the defense lines quite significantly. That and 450 Russian soldiers lost in a single day, this appears to be a rout.

Also, the Bayraktars are also seeing action (this is footage from the famously crowdfunded one)

https://twitter.com/user/status/1565372183244951552

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by White Out 403

New Axis?

I would be surprised if Sino-Indian relations were to reach anything such as that. These countries are traditionally not very fond of each other and there have been border skirmishes over the last 2 years where soldiers have died.

[burn_this_city]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1565319649683804160

[Hack&Lube]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

It's literally a meme at this point. Guys falling out of windows.

Russia is basically a mix between Nazi Germany and Mob Rule. Powerful people being defenestrated by the state when they become undesirable persons.

The message is clear that no one is safe. You will get thrown out a window, poisoned, or your family will be killed in your vacation home if you oppose the Fuhrer/Godfather Putin.

[CroFlames]

TIL there is a word for getting tossed out a window.

[OldDutch]

Originally Posted by Itse

Oligarch and chairman of Lukoil Ravil Maganov has "fallen" out of a hospital window in Moscow and died.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ce-2022-09-01/

At least at the early stages of the war, Maganov was an open critic of the attack on Ukraine.

Republicans: "Clintons are evil, who kill their foes through unexplained circumstances"

Also Republicans: "Putin is a strong leader we should all admire"

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Firebot

While it's quiet on the Kherson news front with the total blackout...the daily tally says it's anything but quiet.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1565252696071962627

These are levels of losses not seen since March when Russia famously failed with their convoys to Kyiv. 24 artillery pieces lost means Ukraine must have broken through the defense lines quite significantly. That and 450 Russian soldiers lost in a single day, this appears to be a rout.

Also, the Bayraktars are also seeing action (this is footage from the famously crowdfunded one)

https://twitter.com/user/status/1565372183244951552

Artilleries blasting at each other has been common in this war, and is just as likely an explanation as a breakthrough. Also, casualty numbers from one side, especially in a situation like this, need to be taken with a lot of salt.

And without casualty numbers from the other side it's impossible to say much about how things are going. Even in a successful attack, casualties can often be larger on the offensive side.

All these numbers tell us that it's a big battle.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

TIL there is a word for getting tossed out a window.

Defenestration

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by Itse

Artilleries blasting at each other has been common in this war, and is just as likely an explanation as a breakthrough. Also, casualty numbers from one side, especially in a situation like this, need to be taken with a lot of salt.

And without casualty numbers from the other side it's impossible to say much about how things are going. Even in a successful attack, casualties can often be larger on the offensive side.

All these numbers tell us that it's a big battle.

Ukraine's estimates of Russian loses have been pretty accurate with US intelligence reports, don't see why they'd start inflating them now

[greyshep]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

Ukraine's estimates of Russian loses have been pretty accurate with US intelligence reports, don't see why they'd start inflating them now

Pretty sure that is not what he was commenting on.

He was stating that its hard to infer who is winning a battle when you are only getting one sides numbers. At least that is how I read it.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by icarus

From the BBC article about this:

"Several Russian energy oligarchs have died in unusual circumstances in recent months:

The body of millionaire Novatek former manager Sergei Protosenya was found alongside his wife and daughter at a Spanish villa in April

A former vice-president of Gazprombank, Vladislav Avayev, was found dead with his wife and daughter in their Moscow flat, also in April

In May, a former Lukoil tycoon Alexander Subbotin died of heart failure, reportedly after seeking alternative treatment from a shaman."

The Russians truly do not GAF how much money you have if they decide they want to kill you.

[Yikes]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

The Russians truly do not GAF how much money you have if they decide they want to kill you.

You threaten Putin, Putin threatens you. When that happens you and all of your family best pay attention. cuz regardless of where you are on this rock, you and yours are probably done.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by Firebot

While it's quiet on the Kherson news front with the total blackout...the daily tally says it's anything but quiet.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1565252696071962627

These are levels of losses not seen since March when Russia famously failed with their convoys to Kyiv. 24 artillery pieces lost means Ukraine must have broken through the defense lines quite significantly. That and 450 Russian soldiers lost in a single day, this appears to be a rout.

Also, the Bayraktars are also seeing action (this is footage from the famously crowdfunded one)

https://twitter.com/user/status/1565372183244951552

450 Russian soldiers died is a bit weird number as Russian media reports only 330 Ukranians died in the Kherson offensive. Attacking side casualties should be higher than defensive ones. And there's no point for Russian media to downplay the number of Ukrainian casualties.

[CroFlames]

True but Ukraine is using the most modern NATO weaons. Even if Russia is using their top notch equipment, NATO's is still much more advanced. HIMARs being a perfect example. Comms another example.

[burn_this_city]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1565674984202199042

Seems legit.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Kevin Sorbo is a Putin sympathizer? Wtf??

This surprises you?

The guy is a full-blown Trumper loon. ####, on Jan. 6th he was metaphorically fapping so hard he'd get friction burn until it was clear that it wasn't going to work and then he suggested that those idiots were really antifa dressed up like like maga.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Parallex

This surprises you?

The guy is a full-blown Trumper loon. ####, on Jan. 6th he was metaphorically fapping so hard he'd get friction burn until it was clear that it wasn't going to work and then he suggested that those idiots were really antifa dressed up like like maga.

He's a nobody to me so I didn't even know he was a Trumper. But now it makes sense I read up on him a bit.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

Ukraine's estimates of Russian loses have been pretty accurate with US intelligence reports, don't see why they'd start inflating them now

First, US is not a neutral party, and second, Ukraine will start inflating numbers the moment they feel they should.

For example, if they're suffering heavy casualties, they'll want to so say the other side is taking heavy casualties too whether that's the case or not.

It's also worth remembering that not all casualties are equal. Losing trained professional troops hurts both sides a lot. Ukraine however as a clear advantage in sheer numbers of troops and potential reserves, so they can afford to lose more men, as long as they're not losing their best troops. I'm saying this just to add reasons why simple casualty numbers don't tell us much about what's going on.

For the record, I'm not in any way ruling out the possibility that Ukraine really is doing well in the attack. I'm just trying to keep myself very grounded and prepared for the possibility of bad news.

[Baron von Kriterium]

Originally Posted by IliketoPuck

Haven't been able to find much in the way of updates on the offensive in Kherson. Anyone else?

“Offensive?” More like a reconnaissance in force.

At any rate, the AFU initially attacked along five axes, as shown below:


Specifically:
1. Vysokopolye sector: AFU attacked #Olgino and #Vysokopolye, but RUS heavy artillery fire halted their advance;

2. Andrievka sector: AFU advanced several km towards Sukhoy Stavok and occupied the populated area. AFU then advanced towards Lozovoye;

3. Snigirovka sector: RUS repelled AFU attack in Blagodatnoye direction. RUS repelled AFU attack from Posad-Pokrovskoye direction. Quiet in this sector now;

4. AFU took Pravdino but RUS recaptured it; and

5. Nikolaev-Kherson Trunk Road: RUS repulsed AFU attack.

AFU achieved success as they punched through the Russian lines on the axis to Sukhoy Stavok and then to Kostromka.



I suspect this salient wasn't this thin, but who knows. One way or the other, it presented an outstanding opportunity to Russian gunners as they will register that entire salient with fires. Knowing this, the AFU tried expanding its beach head at the Inhulets River at Andrievka and Lozovoye.

Current situation? Something like this, although the Russians still apparently hold the village of Bilogirka. The situation has stabilized with AFU reorganizing. There has, to date, been little evidence of the AFU being able to exploit or reinforce this small breakthrough with additional troops and equipment. However, there is apparently a reserve battalion on the move from Zaporozhye.



The AFU is exposed to massive air and artillery fires and, as you can see from the map, there is very little cover.