Calgary Real Estate predictions?

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by Deegee

Sales generally increase in the spring/summer season do they not?

So even using the past three months as a guideline towards the end of summer may not be the best indicator of where things are going.

Spring yes, summer no. Summer is usually very slow, and Spring/Fall are the busy times.

[photon]

Originally Posted by Jedi Ninja

The main argument against the longer term prospects of the market relates to interest rates. Rates right now are as low as they will get. This has drawn a lot of people into the market. It has also altered the rent-vs-buy equation substantially. But the economics of buying a home on a 2.5% (variable) mortgage versus a more normal rate of 6% are quite dramatic. The interest-only cost of a $400,000 mortgage goes from $10,000 per year to $24000.

The question is, how long can rates stay this low? I wish I had the answer myself. After Japan's property bubble collapsed in the '90s, the bank rate there stayed low for years. The same may happen here.

I think it's hard to call property prices here a bubble still, if a recession only takes off 10% then that's still pretty well supported prices.

But you are right, higher interest costs will slow things down, but I think they've said that as long as inflation doesn't become an issue (and hard to think that it will coming out of a recession), rates will stay where they are for at least a year. Things could change, but I think that's as good a guess as any.

Longer term as rates increase that'll keep things from overheating again, but as long as people keep moving here and the economy keeps growing, we should be ok.

To me the biggest threat to Alberta is the government. After years and years of making Alberta super attractive to business investment (O&G especially), it seems now that the government doesn't care as much. If companies move elsewhere, so do the jobs, and so does the growth. That's something that concerns me.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

Spring yes, summer no. Summer is usually very slow, and Spring/Fall are the busy times.

I would say June, July, and August are the busiest months for us every year.

[ken0042]

Troutman- is that more of a reflection of when the sales get fianlized? So if I buy a house late April with a 45 day possesion; wouldn't that bring me to call you in early June?

[Jedi Ninja]

If you look at the pretty graphs on the CREB website, sales peak in March and decline on almost a straight line until the new year. Spring is definitely hot for sales, but fall not so.

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by ken0042

Troutman- is that more of a reflection of when the sales get fianlized? So if I buy a house late April with a 45 day possesion; wouldn't that bring me to call you in early June?

Thats what I tend to think as well from talking to my realtor. I made my offer in April, got possession July 31.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by ken0042

Troutman- is that more of a reflection of when the sales get fianlized? So if I buy a house late April with a 45 day possesion; wouldn't that bring me to call you in early June?

Sounds right to me

[Tron_fdc]

Interesting stats from the CREB. it's showing pricing is still down somewhat from last year, but inventories are clearing out, and sales are increasing. Average prices are coming up a little since the start of the year as well.

http://www.creb.com/public/media-res...statistics.php

[troutman]

Originally Posted by ken0042

Troutman- is that more of a reflection of when the sales get fianlized? So if I buy a house late April with a 45 day possesion; wouldn't that bring me to call you in early June?

Right. But we are also seeing some very quick possessions this summer.

[cmyden]

Interesting stats from the CREB. it's showing pricing is still down somewhat from last year, but inventories are clearing out, and sales are increasing. Average prices are coming up a little since the start of the year as well.

Looking like August will end at about 1300 SFH sales, down a couple hundred from last month. Although there are often more sales at the end of the month, so we'll see.

The average was highly influenced by the 10.5 million sale, I believe it pushed it up by over 12 grand. Median is up about 10 grand over last month though.

http://www.findcalgary.ca/listings?p...=127&pageId=19
^^ favorite site for up to date Calgary stats

From personal experience, having watched certain areas for the past year or so, there's just been absolutely *nothing* come on to the market that we've wanted to take a look at in the past 4-5 months.

Mind you, we are looking at very select areas, but in the 6 months before that there were at least 5-10 houses per month that would pop up that looked intriguing.

We're waiting for some quality inventory to return.

In other news, mortgage arrears in Alberta continue to climb...



http://edmontonhousingbust.blogspot....ll-behind.html


Natural gas continues to fall...



Unemployment continues to climb...

http://www40.statcan.gc.ca/l01/cst01/indi02j-eng.htm

Rig counts are down over 50% from last year...

http://www.caodc.ca/rigcounts.htm#wkwestdrill


Yet the Calgary real estate market continues to chug along! I think Sep-Dec could be interesting to watch.

[Wookie]

A report released by Re/Max today says the average price of a Calgary home in 1980 was $93,977 and that has jumped to $380,489 this year, an increase of 304.9 per cent.

But at the national level the average price in 1980 was $67,024 and $312,585 this year for a 366.4 per cent increase.

Greater Vancouver led the nation with a 473.7 per cent hike in price appreciation over that period going from $100,065 in 1980 to $574,061 today. Victoria (448.5 per cent), Greater Toronto (409.9 per cent), Regina (402.0 per cent), Ottawa (377.5 per cent), Halifax-Dartmouth (350.8 per cent) and Winnipeg (310.0 per cent) all had better price appreciation than Calgary.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/busines...974/story.html

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by photon

I think it's hard to call property prices here a bubble still, if a recession only takes off 10% then that's still pretty well supported prices.

But you are right, higher interest costs will slow things down, but I think they've said that as long as inflation doesn't become an issue (and hard to think that it will coming out of a recession), rates will stay where they are for at least a year. Things could change, but I think that's as good a guess as any.

Longer term as rates increase that'll keep things from overheating again, but as long as people keep moving here and the economy keeps growing, we should be ok.

Actually inflation is a big problem after recessions. This one might be different though as so much money supply simply vapourized.

To me the biggest threat to Alberta is the government. After years and years of making Alberta super attractive to business investment (O&G especially), it seems now that the government doesn't care as much. If companies move elsewhere, so do the jobs, and so does the growth. That's something that concerns me.

Back when oil first hit $50, Shell was growing and making lots of profit. Now that it's $70 from a high of $150, Shell's losing money. That's management incompetence at its best.

[Shazam]

In regards to first time home buyers, I think people are seriously underestimating the cost of rent these days. The decision to buy is a no-brainer for a lot of people, if you're shelling out $1800-$2000/month for rent, which is not uncommon.

[Tron_fdc]

http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/2...port-says.html

[Bertuzzied]

Originally Posted by Tron_fdc

http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/2...port-says.html

hmmm a study by Remax might not be the best thing to go on.

[Tron_fdc]

Originally Posted by Bertuzzied

hmmm a study by Remax might not be the best thing to go on.

Fair enough, but they are using some stats to back it up. How reliable they are is probably debatable, but from what I'm seeing around the city it seems like prices have crept up a little.

All I need now is someone to overpay for my house in Bridlewood, allowing me to lowball a cabin owner in Kelowna.....it's all about timing baby

[Jedi Ninja]

Originally Posted by Tron_fdc

Fair enough, but they are using some stats to back it up. How reliable they are is probably debatable, but from what I'm seeing around the city it seems like prices have crept up a little.

All I need now is someone to overpay for my house in Bridlewood, allowing me to lowball a cabin owner in Kelowna.....it's all about timing baby

Meh, I'm holding out for San Diego. I think I'd rather stay here than live in Kelowna.

[AFireInside]

Originally Posted by Tron_fdc

Fair enough, but they are using some stats to back it up. How reliable they are is probably debatable, but from what I'm seeing around the city it seems like prices have crept up a little.

All I need now is someone to overpay for my house in Bridlewood, allowing me to lowball a cabin owner in Kelowna.....it's all about timing baby

Over the past year housing prices are down a considerable amount. They always, ALWAYS increase in spring and summer. So saying that housing prices have crept up a little is very common at this point in the year.

The real test is the fall/winter. If they don't go down much during that time frame then it's likely that housing prices will remain stable or increase. I'm not putting my money on that however. Will be interesting to see what happens between now and December.

[Jedi Ninja]

Originally Posted by AFireInside

Over the past year housing prices are down a considerable amount. They always, ALWAYS increase in spring and summer. So saying that housing prices have crept up a little is very common at this point in the year.

The real test is the fall/winter. If they don't go down much during that time frame then it's likely that housing prices will remain stable or increase. I'm not putting my money on that however. Will be interesting to see what happens between now and December.

There's been zero build-up in listings over the summer, and the listings-sales ratio is still really low (like 2.5 months inventory), so I am pretty confident that prices will hold through the winter. That doesn't necessarily mean prices will go up in the spring., though.

[Slava]

Considering some of the real estate happenings and the predictions during the meltdown the housing prices have actually held remarkably steady. The housing market in Calgary is actually one of the few bright spots at this point in the Alberta economy (which is still in recession most likely).