[PGT] Anemic offense, Flames lose 2-1

[timbit]

Do some people really believe that tactics and system determine winners in the playoffs?

There is minimal difference in the aforementioned, from team to team.

Matchups are important, for sure.

Every team 4checks , defends the mid ice corridor through all 3 zones, relatively the same way, with some variance, in response to countering opposition 4check( DZ breakouts and NZ counters). Usually 1-3-1, 1-2-2 or rarely 1-4.

PP breakouts are pretty standard... 2-1-2 on breakout with 2 trailers, parallel ready to receive drop pass.

1-3-1 on PP in Ozone

...and with the Pk 4check , a box with aggression when available through NZ , with in zone being an aggressive rotation and back to protect the middle , with all 4 parts interchangeable.



Bottom line....the team that executes best and has their best players playing better than the other team’s best players, including goalie.... win 90 % of the time.

[DeluxeMoustache]

^ oh yes, I absolutely believe tactics matter.

Remember Sutter before he bowed out and passed the baton to Playfair? Flames had been dumping in and retrieving in the corner, then the Ducks adjusted. Then Sutter’s adjustment was more shallow chips. Anaheim caught on and Sutter had no answer in game 7. Obviously he learned from that and was ultimately successful in his next coaching gig

Oh, also, I think that’s the first time I have seen 4check deployed as if generally accepted

I really don’t agree with this beyond the generalization.

I am not sure I agree with you. Some power plays use an umbrella formation (2 guys net front on each side and 3 up high, some use a 1-3-1, which pulls someone higher with one guy immediately net front, and some try to draw the action to the corner / half boards and get the outside guy for the one timer (Caps/Ovechkin)

The Flames have been trying to give teams different looks. First thing is morphing between on ice formation based on situation. You see elements of each of the above.

Second is personnel. I liked Gaudreau on the right side vs Winnipeg and thought he struggled on the left.

You know what? I think that view is, frankly, kind of patronizing to coaches.

I agree that if players fail of refuse to put in the effort, of course they will have much more trouble succeeding. The early rounds generally weed that crap out.

I have a lot more thoughts but will leave it here

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

They said on the stars broadcast that when a series is tied 2-2 the winner of game 5 wins the series 72% of the time.

If the odds of winning each game would be 50/50, a 3-2 series lead would transfer to a series win 75% of the time.

So 72% is actually not terrible. I'm guessing there's more than a 50% chance statistically that this goes to seven.

[FireGilbert]

The last time the Flames won a Game 6 to force a Game 7 was against the Sharks in 2008. It was a dominant 2-0 win although I recall San Jose put in a pretty poor effort knowing they had Game 7 at home to fall back on.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

They said on the stars broadcast that when a series is tied 2-2 the winner of game 5 wins the series 72% of the time.

Well, based on a 50% chance of winning each game, the odds should be 75%. I’m surprised that in actuality it’s lower.

It suggests that Calgary has a 53% chance of winning each game, resulting in a 28% chance of winning the series.


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[Lego Man]

Originally Posted by the cobra

well, based on a 50% chance of winning each game, the odds should be 75%. I’m surprised that in actuality it’s lower.

It suggests that calgary has a 53% chance of winning each game, resulting in a 28% chance of winning the series.


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i like them odds!

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I'm still an idiot teen.... we're allowed to be recklessly optimistic.

I don't know if its refreshing or sad to come across a Flames fan who hasn't been broken yet. They will break you too.

You remind me of all those young Padawans in the Jedi temple. Full of hope for the future. Full of optimism.

Then Anakin (read, Flames) arrive.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

I don't know if its refreshing or sad to come across a Flames fan who hasn't been broken yet. They will break you too.

You remind me of all those young Padawans in the Jedi temple. Full of hope for the future. Full of optimism.

Then Anakin (read, Flames) arrive.

[TheScorpion]

I’m not a flincher!

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I’m not a flincher!

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Itse

If the odds of winning each game would be 50/50, a 3-2 series lead would transfer to a series win 75% of the time.

So 72% is actually not terrible. I'm guessing there's more than a 50% chance statistically that this goes to seven.

I think they might have actually said 78%

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I was TheScorpion in the early 90s... the young guns era...

#### it we're stuck in a time loop aren't we.

[mrdonkey]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I remember when I was that kid. Now all I have left is bitterness and doubt, year after year, reinforced with the knowledge that any sign of success is immediately followed by crushing disappointment.

This is what being a Flames fan does to you.

[The Fisher Account]

Fully expecting a 2006 1st round game 7 performance by the boys tonight.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I think they might have actually said 78%

73%... 78%... statistical noise. Both are essentially identical to 75%, which is what would be expected if the games were random.

This suggests that there is no momentum carried from game to game, no mental or emotional advantage.

Pretty surprising actually, not that there isn't momentum, but that there isn't any indication at all that the teams that go up 3-2 are the better teams. One would expect that the winning percentage would be higher than 75%, simply by the fact that more often than not, the team up 3-2 is the better team, and thus they should win more than the random 75% of the time.

[SportsJunky]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

That made me lol.

[Kidder]

I watched the Series win against the Jets with a buddy who was born in 1990.

Told him to cherish it. This was only the third year since he’s been alive that the Flames won a playoff series.

Unless there’s a minor miracle it will still only be twice in his life they have gone past the first round.

He’s 30 next month. Lol.

All that said... Go Flames Go! I’ll be watching and cheering.

[Joborule]

Originally Posted by Kidder

I watched the Series win against the Jets with a buddy who was born in 1990.

Told him to cherish it. This was only the third year since he’s been alive that the Flames won a playoff series.

Unless there’s a minor miracle it will still only be twice in his life they have gone past the first round.

He’s 30 next month. Lol.

All that said... Go Flames Go! I’ll be watching and cheering.

Do we even really count the qualifiers a playoff series win though? Flames right now are in round 1 of the playoffs.

Making round 2 - winning round 1 in a best of 7 requires a team to be good to make it that far.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Joborule

Do we even really count the qualifiers a playoff series win though? Flames right now are in round 1 of the playoffs.

Making round 2 - winning round 1 in a best of 7 requires a team to be good to make it that far.

It felt like a PO round to me but maybe because I’m old enough to remember best of 5 rounds. And because for some reason QR points count as postseason scoring for players (though when I think about it it’s probably to exclude them from bonus consideration).

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Joborule

Do we even really count the qualifiers a playoff series win though? Flames right now are in round 1 of the playoffs.

Making round 2 - winning round 1 in a best of 7 requires a team to be good to make it that far.

I'd give it more weight of Winnipeg was a playoff team, but they weren't - they were 9th.

So we beat a non-playoff team in a best of 5 series. It's not playoffs to me - it was the conclusion of the regular season in my eyes. It was still very fun to watch though, but doesn't count as a playoff round victory.