2024/2025 Season trade rumours and speculation thread

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by traptor

I'm actually not worried about Cozen's contract.

There's been some speculation that the cap is going to rise to 100,000,000 over the next year or two.

At 100 million his contract is 7.1%.

That's middle 6 forward money. By the back half of his contract it will be even less then that.

I think a middle 6 winger is his floor, which wouldn't be great, but far from a disaster.

I think the risk is quite low.

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/travis-yost-n...acts-1.2166102

Can't just assume the cap is going to keep climbing. It's to be seen how they replace 500M in TV revenue from the new Canadian TV package.

A lot can change with the new CBA. It's also why I think its ideal to lockout Zary, Coronato and Wolf to 8 year deals this offseason.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by kyuss275

Flames have to make the tough decision and trade him this year. I get vets won’t be happy but they have to get where the flames are at.

But they don't have to.
You set a price. If someone meets that price you make a deal.
If someone doesn't meet that price, you hold off.

All sorts of players get traded in the summer for good returns. Why are we assuming that wouldn't happen with Rasmus.

[Yeah_Baby]

folks know the Flames still have to ice a team next year right?

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

That's why I don't think anyone can say with certainty that the optimal time is now or at the deadline. It ignores this and other factors.

Yup. For some teams, the value of having him for two playoff runs will be higher than having him for one. For others, the value of having him for up to 9 years will outweigh having him for 1.3 or whatever.

Maybe some offers disappear after the TDL. Maybe some better ones come in on July 1. Especially if a team doesn’t get their guy in FA. You never know.

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

But they don't have to.
You set a price. If someone meets that price you make a deal.
If someone doesn't meet that price, you hold off.

All sorts of players get traded in the summer for good returns. Why are we assuming that wouldn't happen with Rasmus.

Because imo the longer you hold off the less you are going to get. I do t want a situation where we end up getting a hanifin return. I don’t blame conroy for what he got near deadline, his hands were tied.to me hanifin was worth more than a late 1st and a C level ,27 year old d project if traded in the summer.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by kyuss275

Because imo the longer you hold off the less you are going to get. I do t want a situation where we end up getting a hanifin return. I don’t blame conroy for what he got near deadline but to me hanifin was worth more than a late 1st and a C level ,27 year old d project if traded in the summer.

Right and perhaps I misunderstood what you were saying by this year, and if so that's on me. But there is a belief by some that the must trade him before or at the deadline this year. I think they need to trade him sometime between now and the start of next season. Once the season starts, then I think the leverage starts to shift and the value is likely to decline. But between the deadline this year and the summer - I'm not sure what the optimal point is.

Sounds like we actually agree.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by kyuss275

Because imo the longer you hold off the less you are going to get. I do t want a situation where we end up getting a hanifin return. I don’t blame conroy for what he got near deadline, his hands were tied.to me hanifin was worth more than a late 1st and a C level ,27 year old d project if traded in the summer.

It’s not a straight line down, though. It’ll probably be lower next trade deadline than it might be at some point over the next year, but there’s no actual way to tell where the peak is going to be. Maybe Andersson is worth more now than he’ll ever be. Maybe he’s worth that in the summer when teams are actually planning long term. Maybe he’s worth that in November.

No way to tell.

[dammage79]

Anderssons trade value drop significantly at the start of next season IMO.

I maintain the belief that if the Flames want to extract maximum value in an Andersson trade (they won't) he has to be moved at this deadline. But it won't happen. It just won't. Loyalty over pragmatic business sense. And I also believe they know this fully. But it just doesn't matter. And I'm not saying this as a slight but more of an astute observation of how this franchise operates without fail.

If an Andersson extension cannot be made, he will be moved at the 26 deadline. After they've exhausted all negotiation opportunities possible.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Anderssons trade value drop significantly at the start of next season IMO.

I maintain the belief that if the Flames want to extract maximum value in an Andersson trade (they won't) he has to be moved at this deadline. But it won't happen. It just won't. Loyalty over pragmatic business sense. And I also believe they know this fully. But it just doesn't matter. And I'm not saying this as a slight but more of an astute observation of how this franchise operates without fail.

If an Andersson extension cannot be made, he will be moved at the 26 deadline. After they've exhausted all negotiation opportunities possible.

I honestly think he goes this summer.

[Tbull8]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I honestly think he goes this summer.

Ya I can see summer too. Once all draft positions have been determined. Teams will have a decent grasp on where their gaps are, especially playoff teams that lose early in the playoffs. Plus they’ll be that much closer to being able to extend him. Maybe 2 playoff runs is worth a ton but one playoff run plus a more guaranteed chance of retaining him still might be worth more

[stemit14]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

It’s not a straight line down, though. It’ll probably be lower next trade deadline than it might be at some point over the next year, but there’s no actual way to tell where the peak is going to be. Maybe Andersson is worth more now than he’ll ever be. Maybe he’s worth that in the summer when teams are actually planning long term. Maybe he’s worth that in November.

No way to tell.

True. We’re all just speculating. It’s dependent on teams stepping up and paying the right amount at the right time. And Conroy being willing to pull the trigger when the return is appropriate.

At this point, my guess based solely on general value would be the following:

Return for Andersson near the 2025 TDL:
Late 2025 1st round pick + top 3 prospect (ideally a center) + Late 2025 2nd or 3rd round pick (depending on the quality of the prospect)

Return for Andersson after July 1st (no extension talks with new team before trade):
2026 1st round pick (top 10 protected) + top 3 prospect (ideally a center) + 2026 3rd or 4th pick (depending on the quality of the prospect)

Return for Andersson after July 1st (extension talks with new team before trade):
2026 1st round pick (top 5 protected) + top 3 prospect (ideally a center) + 2026 2nd or 3rd round pick (depending on the quality of the prospect)

Return for Andersson near the 2026 TDL:
Late 2026 1st round pick + B-level prospect + Late 2026 2nd round pick

Of course those returns are complete guesses/hopes on my part. It’s entirely likely none of those are close to what he will return… it’s more about the fluctuation in overall value relative to each return.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by konradical

For a trade to "add" for the deadline assuming we are still in the hunt it would be intriguing to swap Kuzmenko with another struggling player.

For example Hall for Kuzmenko (maybe you add a bit more). Both similar cap hits and UFAs. Both have no reason to stay with their current teams. Chicago could be intrigued with Kuz playing top line minutes with Bedard as we has shown he can be a ppg twice already.

Hall can be a reliable player to put anywhere in your lineup with injuries or just experience.

Chicago can test out Kuz and see if he can gel there and get him for basically a swap. It think it is a better risk then getting yet another 4th pick for Hall. Calgary can "add" by mainly swapping a forward and maybe adding a late pick.

Can help this group feel confident that the management believes in them with very little futures being given. I feel Hall would be more effective for this team then Kuz and have the boost playing for his hometown team.

Chi: Kuzmenko + 6th
Cgy: Hall

Hall isn't struggling. He's declining. Because he's 33 with injury history.

[dammage79]

The Hawks need a whole lot of everything. I'm actually surprised they are not more active in the acquisitionarket and swapping roster pieces.

[Ped]

Originally Posted by dammage79

The Hawks need a whole lot of everything. I'm actually surprised they are not more active in the acquisitionarket and swapping roster pieces.

They just traded Isaak Phillips for Dmitri Kuzmin!

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Wolven

You are looking at the wrong end of the standings. 5 of the bottom 6 teams are in the West. The Blackhawks, Sharks, Ducks, Preds, and Kraken.

Having that many struggling teams in the conference helps to lift up the good teams to higher point totals because they are feasting on the bad teams.

Also, having that many bad teams means that the "bad" Flames team that everyone penciled in as being in the top 5 of the draft is sitting on the playoff bubble because we can't help but win against the worse teams.

First, there aren't that many games against each team any more - teams in teh West will play those 5 crappy teams 3.5 times each, vs 2 times for the crappy teams in the other division. So what is that worth in the standings? 18 games against teams averaging .400 vs 18 games against teams averaging .450 - maybe 2 or 3 points?

Simpler way to look at it: what is the winning percentage of all the teams in the east, vs the teams in the west?

East: .5514
West: .5509

So exactly the same (it would take 2,000 games for the east to have one more total point than the west)

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

First, there aren't that many games against each team any more - teams in teh West will play those 5 crappy teams 3.5 times each, vs 2 times for the crappy teams in the other division. So what is that worth in the standings? 18 games against teams averaging .400 vs 18 games against teams averaging .450 - maybe 2 or 3 points?

Simpler way to look at it: what is the winning percentage of all the teams in the east, vs the teams in the west?

East: .5514
West: .5509

So exactly the same (it would take 2,000 games for the east to have one more total point than the west)

Interesting... I think you oversimplified the math and are averaging the data so much that it no longer really proving a point. I tried the same exercise but I broke up each conference into top 5, middle 6, and bottom 5.

East
- Top 5 = 63.9%
- Middle 6 = 54.2%
- Bottom 5 = 47.5%

West
- Top 5 = 67.6%
- Middle 6 = 56.6%
- Bottom 5 = 40.8%

There is definitely something to be said for how bad the bottom 5 in the West is and how many more points they are giving the top 5 and even the middle 6 in their conference compared to the East.

I'll paste my sheet below but you can see on the standings that the Sabres are nowhere near as bad as the Blackhawks and the Sharks are actually worse than their position in the standings suggest because they are already at 46 games played.

NSFW!

Conference Team Games Played Points Point % Group
East WSH 44 63 71.59090909 Top 5
East NJD 46 57 61.95652174 Top 5
East TOR 45 56 62.22222222 Top 5
East CAR 44 55 62.5 Top 5
East FLD 45 55 61.11111111 Top 5
East TBL 42 49 58.33333333 Middle 6
East BOS 46 49 53.26086957 Middle 6
East CBJ 44 48 54.54545455 Middle 6
East OTT 43 47 54.65116279 Middle 6
East MON 43 46 53.48837209 Middle 6
East DET 43 44 51.1627907 Middle 6
East PHI 45 44 48.88888889 Bottom 5
East PIT 46 44 47.82608696 Bottom 5
East NYR 43 43 50 Bottom 5
East NYI 43 41 47.6744186 Bottom 5
East BUF 43 37 43.02325581 Bottom 5
West WPG 45 63 70 Top 5
West VGK 44 61 69.31818182 Top 5
West MIN 44 58 65.90909091 Top 5
West DAL 43 57 66.27906977 Top 5
West EDM 43 57 66.27906977 Top 5
West COL 45 55 61.11111111 Middle 6
West LAK 41 53 64.63414634 Middle 6
West CGY 43 49 56.97674419 Middle 6
West VAN 43 48 55.81395349 Middle 6
West STL 45 46 51.11111111 Middle 6
West UHC 43 43 50 Middle 6
West ANA 44 41 46.59090909 Bottom 5
West SEA 45 41 45.55555556 Bottom 5
West NAS 43 35 40.69767442 Bottom 5
West SJS 46 34 36.95652174 Bottom 5
West CHI 44 30 34.09090909 Bottom 5

[TOfan]

Nick Kypreos updated his trade board today. Still have not seen Rasmus Andersson show up on any of these I’ve come across.

Will be interesting to see if, in fact, Conroy has thrown up a huge smoke screen and will trade him. I’m taking him at his word and would be surprised if Andersson is traded before the deadline.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Wolven

Interesting... I think you oversimplified the math and are averaging the data so much that it no longer really proving a point. I tried the same exercise but I broke up each conference into top 5, middle 6, and bottom 5.

East
- Top 5 = 63.9%
- Middle 6 = 54.2%
- Bottom 5 = 47.5%

West
- Top 5 = 67.6%
- Middle 6 = 56.6%
- Bottom 5 = 40.8%

There is definitely something to be said for how bad the bottom 5 in the West is and how many more points they are giving the top 5 and even the middle 6 in their conference compared to the East.

I'll paste my sheet below but you can see on the standings that the Sabres are nowhere near as bad as the Blackhawks and the Sharks are actually worse than their position in the standings suggest because they are already at 46 games played.

NSFW!

Conference Team Games Played Points Point % Group
East WSH 44 63 71.59090909 Top 5
East NJD 46 57 61.95652174 Top 5
East TOR 45 56 62.22222222 Top 5
East CAR 44 55 62.5 Top 5
East FLD 45 55 61.11111111 Top 5
East TBL 42 49 58.33333333 Middle 6
East BOS 46 49 53.26086957 Middle 6
East CBJ 44 48 54.54545455 Middle 6
East OTT 43 47 54.65116279 Middle 6
East MON 43 46 53.48837209 Middle 6
East DET 43 44 51.1627907 Middle 6
East PHI 45 44 48.88888889 Bottom 5
East PIT 46 44 47.82608696 Bottom 5
East NYR 43 43 50 Bottom 5
East NYI 43 41 47.6744186 Bottom 5
East BUF 43 37 43.02325581 Bottom 5
West WPG 45 63 70 Top 5
West VGK 44 61 69.31818182 Top 5
West MIN 44 58 65.90909091 Top 5
West DAL 43 57 66.27906977 Top 5
West EDM 43 57 66.27906977 Top 5
West COL 45 55 61.11111111 Middle 6
West LAK 41 53 64.63414634 Middle 6
West CGY 43 49 56.97674419 Middle 6
West VAN 43 48 55.81395349 Middle 6
West STL 45 46 51.11111111 Middle 6
West UHC 43 43 50 Middle 6
West ANA 44 41 46.59090909 Bottom 5
West SEA 45 41 45.55555556 Bottom 5
West NAS 43 35 40.69767442 Bottom 5
West SJS 46 34 36.95652174 Bottom 5
West CHI 44 30 34.09090909 Bottom 5

But as has already been said: the poor record of the teams in the bottom 5 may simply be a function of the fact that the good teams are really good.

Again , when comparing the strength of the conferences, look at the inter-conference games. If one conference is winning that battle, then that conference is stronger. But that isn't happening - the inter-conference battle is a tie.

There is only one conclusion from that, and if you are seeing anything else, it has to be because that is what you're looking for.

[Two Fivenagame]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

Posts vs word count? I must be beating him still by a wide margin, even with him having a previous account started when this site first went up.

LOL you got the word count title your first day on this site.
I enjoy your insight

[All In Good Time]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think he's on pace to over take the all time posting mantle by 2026.

I'd love to see his previous handle history to see if he's already there!

17 posts per day, everyday for 28 months
Plus
Whatever he posts on his oiler fan site account
What a life!!!