The 2016 Toronto Blue Jays Thread

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

Deeper on paper, but not on the field. The Red Sox have had several players take significant steps in their development this year. The Jays have had a couple players take steps back. That alone is partly why we are seeing what we are.

106 runs.

Sure, Bautista has had a bad year. But that is offset by Travis replacing Goins.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

I don't agree with everything in that post - for instance I'm not sure that Saunders/Smoak this year is an upgrade over Colabello/Smoak last year. But it is a detailed overview of some of the drivers of worse performance this year.
However, you then boil it down to one thing - the manager. And that's where I just can't agree.
This is MLB. When it comes to approach at the plate - I think it is largely on the players to come up there and know what needs to be done.
I don't think Gibby is without blame, but to take all of that - and outline a lot of different areas where there have been struggles and then just say "and its the managers fault" is just way too simplistic of an explanation.

Health (JD, Jose, Estrada)
Rapid decline of some players due to age (Jose)
Rapid variance in performance YoY from others (Smoak, to a lesser extent Pillar)
Decline in starting pitching in 2nd half (from Happ and Estrada mainly)

I know that there is a POV that the way you drive some of this home, is if a player doesn't execute on fundamentals then you bench them. But I don't think this is realistic in modern sports, nor with what has been for most of the year a very shallow bench for the Jays.

You take your best crack by sending your best lineup out there as much as possible. This team is built to win a certain way. They will live and die by that.

You admit you've disliked Gibby from Day 1 - is it not possible your viewpoint of the situation is clouded by that. As is mine since I like Gibby. The truth probably lies in the middle where Gibby and the players need to own their share of responsibility.

The intent was not to suggest that it is only, and entirely, Gibby's fault.

But he is definitely at fault (part of the problem).

And in sports, windows where you can win are small. This may have been it for the Jays.

This team had a deeper lineup and better pitching than last year. But they are not executing. And they are not adjusting to what other teams are doing.

Compare it to hockey - you can't replace all the players. If it isn't working (and it should be), the coach (manager) will, and should, take the brunt of the blame.

Doesn't mean its all their fault. But they are ultimately responsible.

[JiriHrdina]

Here's how I would assess things going through the line up

Martin: Bad start but overall production has been good
JD: Not as out of this world unreal as last year, particularly recently. And I think he really is the key to the offense. He puts the fear of god into the other teams and impacts how they pitch the entire lineup
EE: Pretty much the same. Has produced.
Jose: Big fall off.
Revere v. Saunders/Upton: Totally different players but agree it is a wash
Tulo: Too streaky. Cooled off at the wrong time.
Travis/Goins: Upgrade for sure
1st base: Big fall of in production here as a result of Smoak being a black pit of despair offensively this year and Colabello - well we all know
Pillar: hasn't been as good at the plate this year.

For me though it all comes down to what your big bats are doing. I think the Jays have a good lineup but it all centers on JD/EE/Jose for the most part. The rest are complimentary pieces. Some can carry a team for a bit (e.g. Martin) but it is not sustainable. You need your big boys.

And right now those guys just aren't going. That drags down the entire lineup.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Compare it to hockey - you can't replace all the players. If it isn't working (and it should be), the coach (manager) will, and should, take the brunt of the blame.

Doesn't mean its all their fault. But they are ultimately responsible.

No surprise though that I often disagree with coaches being blamed in hockey too. Generally speaking I think coaches take too much of the blame and are fired too quickly. And I know that it is because that's the easy thing to do (easier than making trades) but I think it is still often done prematurely.
I think consistency of leadership is something that isn't valued enough in sports. I look at organizations with sustained success and often there are leaders (players, coaches, managers) that have been their a long time and help form the identity of the team.

So this is likely a pretty fundamental philosophical difference.

[Enoch Root]

The big bats have not adjusted to the way they are being pitched.

The team - the entire lineup - tries to hit HRs every night.

So other teams are throwing them more junk and less fast balls.

And the Jays haven't changed their approach. At all.

Any thoughts on that?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

No surprise though that I often disagree with coaches being blamed in hockey too. Generally speaking I think coaches take too much of the blame and are fired too quickly. And I know that it is because that's the easy thing to do (easier than making trades) but I think it is still often done prematurely.
I think consistency of leadership is something that isn't valued enough in sports. I look at organizations with sustained success and often there are leaders (players, coaches, managers) that have been their a long time and help form the identity of the team.

So this is likely a pretty fundamental philosophical difference.

And I agree with you that it is too easy to blame the coach, and is done too often.

But sometimes it is absolutely accurate. And changing the coach/manager can change everything for a team.

Saying 'it's too easy to blame the coach' is just as big of a fallacy as actually blaming the coach too quickly is.

[JiriHrdina]

Sure (reply to the post above the one above)
I don't think it is just that easy to change approach. While I get frustrated with a lack of execution in some situations (e.g. not able to advance a runner) I get more frustrated actually when I see that from the depth players like Pillar.
I think guys like EE, Jose and JD got to the bigs and had success with a certain approach and that deviating too much from that may actually make things worse.

I think you can win with a bunch of different approaches, what is key is execution of that. Right now they aren't executing.

I see them missing very hittable pitches. I also see some bad luck. But more the former. They aren't driving balls that they should be. That's execution more than approach.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Saying 'it's too easy to blame the coach' is just as big of a fallacy as actually blaming the coach too quickly is.

Yup and I think we can agree that both of us have been guilty of arguing on the extremes to make our points.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

The Jays have a much deeper lineup. They should be producing runs at a rate similar to the Red Socks, not the Orioles.

I don't know about that.

Position by position the Orioles group of
Weiters
Davis
Schoop
Hardy
Machado
Trumbo
Jones
Alvarez
Left Field platoon group of Pearce/Reimold/Kim

The only real advantage that the Jays have is Tulowitzki over Hardy. Bautista used to be better than Trumbo, but this year it's not the case.

EE vs Davis most years is pretty even, and I think trumped when you consider EE with Smoak against Davis and Alvarez.

Boston...that team has really loaded up on good young hitters. The Jays last internally developed hitters were Lind and Aaron Hill and both fizzled out badly after promising starts to their careers. Other than that they haven't drafted and developed anything that they've held onto save Pilar who's at best a sub average offensive player. Even a lot of the big hype prospects they traded for have yet to show that they could be anything like the Boston players. I guess we'll see if that fate meets the likes of Bogaerts, Betts, and Bradley....but I'm thinking no these guys look pretty legit. Then add in Bientendi, Holt, Shaw potential of Moncada.

The Jays new Management team does need to figure out how to draft and develop some good home grown position players.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

Sure (reply to the post above the one above)
I don't think it is just that easy to change approach. While I get frustrated with a lack of execution in some situations (e.g. not able to advance a runner) I get more frustrated actually when I see that from the depth players like Pillar.
I think guys like EE, Jose and JD got to the bigs and had success with a certain approach and that deviating too much from that may actually make things worse.

I think you can win with a bunch of different approaches, what is key is execution of that. Right now they aren't executing.

I see them missing very hittable pitches. I also see some bad luck. But more the former. They aren't driving balls that they should be. That's execution more than approach.

Someone else made a similar comment in this thread, and it really isn't true.

Players adjust all the time. And they develop as hitters. They learn how to hit different pitches and in different situations, or they don't make it to the bigs.

Suggesting they have a particular approach and can't/shouldn't adjust is misleading to the point of being just wrong.

[JiriHrdina]

I was trying really hard to engage in a better debate with you. But now are you back to things like "misleading to the point of being wrong"
So in the interest of not dragging this thread down again as we both did last night I'll bow out of this back and forth
I thought we were getting to a better place in terms of how we were debating each other

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

I don't know about that.

Runs are down 12% from last year with the same (slightly better lineup)

They are deeper than the Orioles and should be scoring more rnus than they are.

I can't believe there is a fan anywhere that has been watching this team and is not frustrated with their lack of production.

They are under-performing their talent level.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

I was trying really hard to engage in a better debate with you. But now are you back to things like "misleading to the point of being wrong"
So in the interest of not dragging this thread down again as we both did last night I'll bow out of this back and forth
I thought we were getting to a better place in terms of how we were debating each other

We are.

That comment simply was wrong. Wasn't attacking you in any way, nor was I getting angry or difficult.

I strongly disagreed with the comment.

Sorry if that bothered you.

Edit: I even mentioned that someone else had also said it - i.e. wasn't directed at you (alone). I was simply addressing the comment.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

Sure (reply to the post above the one above)
I don't think it is just that easy to change approach. While I get frustrated with a lack of execution in some situations (e.g. not able to advance a runner) I get more frustrated actually when I see that from the depth players like Pillar.
I think guys like EE, Jose and JD got to the bigs and had success with a certain approach and that deviating too much from that may actually make things worse.

I think you can win with a bunch of different approaches, what is key is execution of that. Right now they aren't executing.

I see them missing very hittable pitches. I also see some bad luck. But more the former. They aren't driving balls that they should be. That's execution more than approach.

That is definitely true as well.

I would counter that batters will miss fewer pitches if they shorten their swings a bit and aren't swinging for the fences every time.

(but I do agree - there are lots of factors, and execution is on the individual)

[KelVarnsen]

If the Jays come up flat today that will be terrible sign for rest of the season. Hopefully they don't do that.

[Enoch Root]

Regardless of all the debates above, and all the issues, the bottom line for this team is that their starting pitching is good enough to carry them all the way to a championship.

But they have to get back on track right now. Today.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by KelVarnsen

If the Jays come up flat today that will be terrible sign for rest of the season. Hopefully they don't do that.

Players only meeting after yesterday's game. Their approach/compete level today will be telling.

And I am assuming (hoping) it will be good.

[Jason14h]

The bold is what's wrong with your argument

He strikes out 32% of the time because he is swinging for the fences every at bat.

When you shorten your swing to slap it through the hole, your strike out percentage in those at bats is substantially lower.

Maybe. Why are you so sure of this. And why did you ignore the rest of the math.

I can buy an argument his strikeout rate might drop, lets say to 20%. He still needs to hit 0.670 to equal his existing slugging precentage.

Do you believe Saunders can get hits 2/3 times trying to chop to that side that he puts the ball in play? Because I sure don't.

Other teams use the shift too. Your argument basically boils down to "All MLB players are too dumb to hit it the other way when the shifts on because it is easy to do"

As a left handed hitter all my life, I can tell you it is not easy to do. When I use to try I would pop up a lot of them and actually miss more pitches. Now I'm no where as good as a MLB player, but these guys have batted 1 way their whole life.

Now regarding Gibbons. He is for sure in the bottom half of the managers in the league. ESPN actually rated him dead last this season at the all star break despite being in 1st place (or close)

I am not sure if he is the worst, but he for sure trusts his players and sticks to the same strategy every situation. An everyday fan could manage as well. I can't think of one "Nice manager move" this entire season from him.

[flames_fan_down_under]

OK lets try this again Jays.

[flames_fan_down_under]

Better start than yesterday. Really like to see those weak ground ball outs from Happ. Those are his bread and butter.