Alberta Politics & Government Thread 3.0

[Johnny Makarov]

I wish the UCP was up 20 points in these useless polls. If this doesn't get the fence sitters in Calgary off their ass to vote out this deplorable useless gov't, nothing will.

[timun]

Originally Posted by Slava

The media is projecting this wrong anyway though, as usual. They're looking at the percentage of votes and saying it's a close race, but that's somewhat misleading. I think that Smith and the UCP have a major problem here because the distribution of the votes is not good for them. They have a commanding lead rurally, and that makes the percentages seem closer than they really are. But when you consider the seats and how those votes are distributed it has to be the NDP with a lead here, and potentially sizeable.

You can win a seat with say one more percent than everyone else. But winning with say 70% of the vote still equals one seat. So, its kind of irrelevant. For a poll like this, it helps even out the percentages, but won't result in more seats.

The media does this every election. It's more evident on the prairies, federally, but it's the same mistake.

Originally Posted by Torture

Isn't it the opposite? The UCP vote is much more efficient than the NDP.
The NDP have to sweep Edmonton and surrounding areas and win the majority of Calgary.

The 338 Canada article that Yoho (I know, I know) posted earlier actually talked about that:

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/0...otley-00079299

Originally Posted by Fuzz

It's still a tough go for the NDP though. Calgary has several blue seats, and it's not an easy task to flip all of them, which the NDP pretty much requires. Best case for them is a 3rd party of "crazier than the UCP" to siphon a few percent away.

I said it before in this thread, six months ago, and I'll say it again:

Originally Posted by timun

Agreed, the NDP are so overwhelmingly unpopular in the rural and Edmonton/Calgary suburban ridings that it will be next to impossible for them to form government. The UCP can win >35 ridings without even trying. If the UCP win 7-10 Calgary ridings they'll form government again pretty easily. (FTR the PCs won eight seats in Calgary in 2015.)

Originally Posted by timun

At the very least I don't think the NDP have a hope in hell of winning Highwood, Chestermere-Strathmore, Airdrie-East, Airdrie-Cochrane, Calgary-West and any Calgary riding south of Anderson Road. They have a fighting chance in the Edmonton area.

The UCP have an incredibly solid rural base. There are at least a couple dozen rural ridings where, in my opinion, the NDP have absolutely no chance whatsoever. Literally 0% chance of them flipping them orange. The UCP also have a very solid base, as I said earlier, in the Calgary ridings south of Anderson: Calgary-Lougheed, Calgary-Fish Creek, Calgary-Shaw, Calgary-Hays, Calgary South-East. Calgary-West is also a UCP shoe-in. I also doubt they'll lose Red Deer (North and South) or Grande Prairie. By my count there are about 40 ridings where the UCP are still, even after all this #### we've lived with over the last four years, almost assuredly going to win.

As such the margin for error for an NDP campaign is extremely small. They've got all of Edmonton (20 ridings), St. Albert, Calgary-Bhullar-McCall, Calgary-Mountain View, Calgary-Buffalo, and Lethbridge-West pretty much wrapped up, but that's only 25 safe seats. I think they're likely to take Calgary-Falconridge, Calgary-Varsity and Calgary-Currie, and have pretty good chances in Calgary-Elbow, Calgary-Klein and Banff-Kananaskis. That's still only 31 seats; they need to find another 13.

The only ridings I thing that may be up for grabs are the other 11 Calgary seats, Fort Sask-Vegreville, Leduc-Beaumont, Lethbridge-East, Morinville-St. Albert, Strathcona-Sherwood Park, and Sherwood Park. 13/17 of those need to lean NDP for them to win, but I could see any and all of those 11 Calgary seats still going Team Blue, giving the UCP a comfortable majority.

[Wormius]

Aside: Very strange that the De Santis tweet actually got rendered in Tapatalk.

[psyang]

Originally Posted by Wormius

Aside: Very strange that the De Santis tweet actually got rendered in Tapatalk.

It's from July of last year. Tweets before around November 2022 will render in Tapatalk fine.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Deena Hinshaw signs with BC as Deputy under Bonnie Henry.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...enry-1.6733177

[BlackArcher101]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Deena Hinshaw signs with BC as Deputy under Bonnie Henry.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...enry-1.6733177

Always makes me happy when people get out of a toxic work environment and find success elsewhere.

[MissTeeks]

Everyone getting new jobs today.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1620867201397067776

[Geraldsh]

Originally Posted by BlackArcher101

Always makes me happy when people get out of a toxic work environment and find success elsewhere.

It’s a 6-month contract so maybe she’ll come back after the election.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Deena Hinshaw signs with BC as Deputy under Bonnie Henry.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...enry-1.6733177

Good riddance!

But watch out syphillis on the coast! She is coming for you!

[Faust]

In reversal, University of Lethbridge cancels controversial professor's guest lecture:

https://calgaryherald.com/news/local...lecutre-campus


Minister says Alberta to 'strengthen' free speech on campuses as U of L halts controversial lecture:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...wson-1.6731738

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Faust

In reversal, University of Lethbridge cancels controversial professor's guest lecture:

https://calgaryherald.com/news/local...lecutre-campus


Minister says Alberta to 'strengthen' free speech on campuses as U of L halts controversial lecture:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...wson-1.6731738

Hm. The positive benefits of Residential Schools? That'd be an interesting stance to try and sell.

Maybe all the children learned reading, writing and arithmetic which they otherwise wouldnt have had the opportunity to learn? Unfortunately since a huge chunk of them were abused, tortured and killed it probably didnt turn out to be all that useful in the long run.

I'd go out on a limb and say that regardless of whatever arbitrary 'Educational Benefits' were bestowed upon children in Residential Schools it is highly unlikely to outweigh the detriments of the rape, abuse and murder.

This is like a strange equivalent to "Yeah, well, the Nazis made all the trains run on time! So they've got that going for them....which is nice..."

Okay. Sure. Maybe they did do that. But perhaps we should more closely examine where those trains were going and what they were carrying before we start extolling the potential benefits of their punctuality.

[Ozy_Flame]

And students/protests just sounded her out of the public space she was given. There's video of it online.

People with ####ty opinions are perfectly welcome to say their ####ty opinions. They can do it from the comfort of their own homes so the rest of us don't have to endure obviously bad takes that are detrimental to society.

As conservatives can't seem to understand, just because you can doesn't mean you should.

[Faust]

Athabasca University board fires president who fought Alberta government on staff relocations:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmon...ions-1.6734249

[Faust]

Thomas A. Lukaszuk @LukaszukAB

.@AbDanielleSmith Universities have freedom of speech, as long as they speak UCP truth.
“Scott, the Athabasca University president who openly defied the province's direction to drop the institution's move to virtual operations, was fired”
#ableg #abpse

https://twitter.com/lukaszukab/statu...640974848?s=21

[Faust]

Alex Middleton @AlexYYC

"Scott's firing by the board comes nearly three weeks after his wife died of cancer. She had just been diagnosed in early December."

"It's terrible," Nelson said. "We have given him some time to deal with that."

Compassionate conservatism right here.

https://twitter.com/alexyyc/status/1...239885312?s=21

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Faust

Athabasca University board fires president who fought Alberta government on staff relocations:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmon...ions-1.6734249

Scott became president on Jan. 4, 2022. Soon after arriving in Alberta from his previous job in Australia, he found himself in the middle of a dispute over the university's direction.

...

Nicolaides fired board chair Nancy Laird and appointed Nelson, a former Progressive Conservative leadership candidate, to take her place. He rescinded the appointment of four board members, replacing them with seven new appointees. He said the university's failure to submit a plan could put its operating funding at risk.

Scott put out a defiant video in August stating that the university's reversal of the virtual plan would set it back forty years. Nicolaides said failing to submit a plan would put the university's monthly operating funding at risk.

...

Scott's firing by the board comes nearly three weeks after his wife died of cancer. She had just been diagnosed in early December.

Ooof.


Worth looking back at his hiring press release...sounds like we're losing a good one and he'll go on to do great things elsewhere.
https://news.athabascau.ca/faculty/10th-president/

[Ozy_Flame]

I think the UCP still have their hands in this one, even if the article doesn't cover it.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1620943834455883776

[aaronck]

Originally Posted by Faust

Alex Middleton @AlexYYC

"Scott's firing by the board comes nearly three weeks after his wife died of cancer. She had just been diagnosed in early December."

"It's terrible," Nelson said. "We have given him some time to deal with that."

Compassionate conservatism right here.

https://twitter.com/alexyyc/status/1...239885312?s=21

Message received- Don't #### with the UCP

[Muta]

Just add another rail car to the pile of this trainwreck of a government. Imagine going to those lengths just to remove a particular individual to install your own stooges. Geezus the UCP are insufferable.

[Looch City]

Shady ####ing pieces of #### only looking out for their own interests.