Calgary Real Estate predictions?

[Burninator]

Calgary home prices' decline steepest in Canada, says report

CALGARY - Calgary home prices have seen the steepest decline in the country from peak levels, according to a new housing report released today.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index said house prices in the Calgary metropolitan area have fallen by 12.7 per cent from their peak in August 2007.

“Calgary has shown monthly declines in 16 of the 19 months posted (since the peak), including every month from last July through March.”

Nationally, home prices have dropped by 8.5 per cent from their peak in August 2008.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/busines...511/story.html

[mykalberta]

Nothing concrete to add except that in my building, in the last few months 5 units have been for sale and all sold within a month. I got my realtor to do a check on the prices and all are higher than what I paid for in 2005, but a smidge lower than the absolute peak in about spring/summer of 2008.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by Burninator

Calgary home prices' decline steepest in Canada, says report
...

I think that is to be expected. Calgary had the most inflated prices at the peak, so it had the most room to go down. Especially considering the amount of inventory available in Calgary and the ability/desire to just build outwards forever.

[Captaincanada80]

Update: Ive reached an agreement with the builder

So, On a townhouse listed at 250 775 I made my first offer @ 233 500 w/ an Aug 1st possession on Friday. They countered with an offer of 241 500 (9 225 off the list) with a June 30th possession on Saturday.

I then countered with 2 options:

Option 1: 238 250 With June 30th possession
Option 2: 240 000 with Aug 1st possession (4.3% off list price)

The builder accepted option 2 on Sunday afternoon

Thoughts: I choose not to bring in a real estate agent and felt it worked in my benefit, although I had to do all the leg work myself and at times was a hassel.
Although there is a preception that its a buyers market, Builders are still willing to negotiate 4-5% off listed prices to get deals done. They pushed fairly hard to get a June 30th possession (Quarter end) but in the end, choose the extra 2 grand over the list price showing that the units are moving.On a brand new townhouse far SE in the city, I was able to pay only $186/Sq Ft which is very aggressive (compared to $250-275/Sq Ft, when I was looking 3-6 Months ago)

Again, Thank you to all which provided especially Hulkrogan who correctly predicted the builders counter @ 241 500.

[Captaincanada80]

Originally Posted by fotze

Is there a way to find out what a neighbor's house sold for. I don't want to bother a realtor but don't think there is any other way.

I wasn't able to find neighbourhood stats, but I did reference www.dailystats.ca. Im pretty sure real estate agents are the only way to obtain that information. If you do find a way, please let me know.

[cmyden]

Is there a way to find out what a neighbor's house sold for. I don't want to bother a realtor but don't think there is any other way.

There's a guy on Beyond that does this for anyone that asks. See the Real Estate thread, it's a stickied topic at the top under 'Maxwell Realty'. All you need to do is post the address or MLS number in the forum and he'll let ya know!

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by fotze

Is there a way to find out what a neighbor's house sold for. I don't want to bother a realtor but don't think there is any other way.

PM me the address or MLS #

[Tron_fdc]

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/665879

Canadian housing sales are up, pricing moving up as well. Obviously it's still at a lower level than a year ago (as far as pricing goes) but I'm wondering if people who were waiting to buy are all now jumping in.

Recovery or another false bottom????

Interesting month in Calgary as well....sales are up, and inventory (compared to June 2008) is waaaaay down.

http://www.creb.com/public/documents...-2009-june.pdf

[Shazam]

My house is now for sale; I also put in an offer for another house that was accepted.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Market in Vancouver is crazy right now. Multiple offers everywhere, homes selling first day on the market and more sales then new listings.
June 2009 was the 2nd highest June of all time for Vancouver home sales.

Our development in Calgary has sold about 40 condos in the last month and from what I'm hearing, the Calgary market is quite strong right now too.

Reason; reduction of inventory and rising 5 year mortgage rates.

[photon]

There's a lot of hidden inventory out there right now though, until that gets cleared out will prices do much advancing?

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by photon

There's a lot of hidden inventory out there right now though, until that gets cleared out will prices do much advancing?

Yeah, I too believe there's going to be a ton of houses going up for sale, even though the school year is fast approaching.

Prices aren't advancing. The > ~$450K is still pretty slow (60-90 days). Above $500K is comatose.

It's the $400-450K market that's hopping right now, because that is the limit of affordability of new buyers. Anybody else is pretty well doing an upgrade from a smaller property.

[Rerun]

I just bought a house in Okotoks. It was first listed in late January '09 at $489,900
It was on the market till late June which is when I bought it. At that time it was listed for $454,900. We offered $430,00 and they counter offered $440,000 which we accepted.
Its a very nice house (2100 sq ft plus a 1000 sq ft finished walk-out basement) in a very nice area, so I am really surprised it stayed on the market so long.

I think now is a good time to buy a house that is in the $450,000 + price range as they are competitively priced as they are not moving very quickly.... plus interest rates are pretty good too.

[trubuilt]

Originally Posted by fotze

Is there a way to find out what a neighbor's house sold for. I don't want to bother a realtor but don't think there is any other way.

there is a alberta website https://alta.registries.gov.ab.ca/spinii you can do a search for free to see the last change of price but if you want the owners name you have to pay

[Rerun]

Today's Calgary Sun has a story in it about the recovering real estate market here in Calgary...

The recovery of Calgary's real estate market appears to be under way after home sales rose two consecutive months and realtors are still busy at a time when there is often a seasonal dip after brisk spring sales.

In fact ReMax, in a national survey released yesterday, declared the sales gains in May and June "a clear signal that the housing sector has shifted into recovery mode."

http://www.calgarysun.com/money/2009...23751-sun.html

[troutman]

Originally Posted by trubuilt

there is a alberta website https://alta.registries.gov.ab.ca/spinii you can do a search for free to see the last change of price but if you want the owners name you have to pay

That's the Land Titles Office.

This is impressive:

Land Titles is currently registering Documents received on July 13, 2009.

One day!

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by Rerun

I just bought a house in Okotoks. It was first listed in late January '09 at $489,900
It was on the market till late June which is when I bought it. At that time it was listed for $454,900. We offered $430,00 and they counter offered $440,000 which we accepted.
Its a very nice house (2100 sq ft plus a 1000 sq ft finished walk-out basement) in a very nice area, so I am really surprised it stayed on the market so long.

Doesn't surprise me at all. Right now, if a house is overpriced, it will not move. And once it gets past about 60 days, it gets forgotten.

You had a nice quick negotiation, BTW. My recent house purchase was excruciating. I think their RE agent was a rookie.

[AFireInside]

I never trust anything a real estate company says about housing prices or stats, they are always going to skew them to look positive. The housing market has been positive since 2006 according to them it's always a great time to buy, even though prices have been declining. Re-Max will NEVER EVER say that it's a bad time to buy, and neither will a newspaper, because they get ad revenue from real estate.

No matter what is happening the housing market ALWAYS picks up during spring, this is a sure thing. So sales increasing Feb to June is normal, it is not an indicator that the housing market has recovered.

In my opinion this fall is going to be a good indicator. I think prices will decrease a lot by November, but who really knows in this city.

Sales have increased in the past couple months. However, looking at the stats daily, a month ago there were more sales than listings, over the past 2 weeks or so that has begun to switch.

They say you should watch the stock market, etc to get a good indicator where housing prices are going to go. Plus it's going to be interesting to see how these layoffs (many of which haven't impacted the housing market yet) are going to impact prices.

I'm also interested to see what happens with those people who purchased houses, because of the low interest rates. They may get screwed when the interest rates continue to rise and they have to renew in a couple years. If they are already stretched thin they will be in trouble.

[burn_this_city]

http://www.calgaryherald.com/Calgary...496/story.html

The drop continues..

[Bill Bumface]

Some actual numbers for those interested. As long as this winter isn't as brutal as last one, I'm fine with it (as someone who just upgraded in May). I expected prices to drop more, but between mortgage rates being stellar and finding a house that I really liked, I thought what the hell. Hopefully I'm not sitting here paying double what my house is worth for the rest of my life

Whoops, forgot link: http://www.andrewkyle.com/mlsca/home...e=weekly_stats