The US Election Polling / Data Thread

[photon]

Originally Posted by GGG

Those are the affliction of the person the ballot was mailed to.

Best typo ever!

[GGG]

Originally Posted by photon

Best typo ever!

I cheated though, it auto corrected on me and I left it.

[octothorp]

There was a NYT poll of North Carolina earlier today that finds Clinton +7. Their methodology is a bit different (using the state voter file to target respondents) fitting their required strata, so this could be a bit outlierish (although this is generally considered a good but more labour-intensive method). But another NYT reporter tweeted that these numbers are very consistent with GOP internal polling.

Also shows a massive, +25% edge for Clinton in early voting...

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...tionfront&_r=0

[photon]

Re Florida: Yeah those are the affiliation of the early voter. It's making the assumption that the early voting patterns of this election will mimic the patterns from the other recent elections (because we know the final results of the previous elections with respect to early voter patterns).

The Politico article also mentions that the Democratic early voters are 28% first time or rare voters compared to 20% for Republicans.

Not enough to call an election, but certainly not what one would want out of the gate if hoping for a Trump victory. He needs Florida.

[Fuzz]

How do they know their affiliation, and why? Shouldn't they just send a blank ballot?

[Senator Clay Davis]

Everyone who is registered to vote is also registered to one of the parties, or as unaffiliated. So maybe they should leave affiliation blank, but that is how they know. So the Trump argument here is they have a lot of unregistered voters who won't show up until election day, and that all unaffiliated voters will overwhelmingly vote for Trump.

[Fuzz]

So in order to register to vote, you have to decide to announce to the government who you are likely to vote for? Doesn't that seam odd to anyone? Sure, you can say "unaffiliated" but then you are also telling the government something.

[Senator Clay Davis]

God Bless America. But I think it mostly makes sense, since most people probably wouldn't register to vote in the Dem or GOP primary, this allows them to be auto registered so it makes things easier.

[Gozer]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

So in order to register to vote, you have to decide to announce to the government who you are likely to vote for? Doesn't that seam odd to anyone? Sure, you can say "unaffiliated" but then you are also telling the government something.

Keep in mind there are 50 different elections, each with their own rules.

[photon]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

So in order to register to vote, you have to decide to announce to the government who you are likely to vote for? Doesn't that seam odd to anyone? Sure, you can say "unaffiliated" but then you are also telling the government something.

I think the weirder thing is that the fact that an individual person voted or not is public record (at least in some states, I don't know if it's in all of them). So you can tell if your neighbor voted.

Is that info public in Canada?

[puffnstuff]

I dont believe the actual government has any record of party primary votes. It would be like buying a party membership in Canada to vote for the leader of said party.

[wittynickname]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

So in order to register to vote, you have to decide to announce to the government who you are likely to vote for? Doesn't that seam odd to anyone? Sure, you can say "unaffiliated" but then you are also telling the government something.

I'm not sure how this works in every state, but at least in Pennsylvania, you have to be affiliated with a certain political party to vote in their primary. So for example, as a registered Democrat, I was able to vote Sanders over Clinton, but as I'm not registered Republican, I couldn't place a vote for that primary at all. In Pennsylvania, unaffiliated/independent voters aren't able to vote in the primary. Other states have open primaries, however.

[photon]

Is that registration information public? Like could I get some list from the Democratic party and find wittynickname on the list?

[wittynickname]

Originally Posted by photon

Is that registration information public? Like could I get some list from the Democratic party and find wittynickname on the list?

I honestly have no idea about that, nor where you'd even look to find it. I know I get a crap ton of phone calls around elections, so at least the Democratic Party has access to the information, but I have no idea if it's public record or not.

[photon]

Or I guess if the parties themselves have the info then they can correlate with the voting record to tell if you've voted or not to see if they need to harass you

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by photon

Is that registration information public? Like could I get some list from the Democratic party and find wittynickname on the list?

Yes, apparently. I recalled reading something about this in regards to Slate's live election prediction project they'll be trying this year:

As political analytics have grown more sophisticated in the years since, the speed and quality of Election Day projections have only increased. In states with extensive early voting programs, it is now possible to know which citizens have returned ballots—local authorities typically release a list of voter names each day during an early voting period—and match those to statistical models predicting how each individual will vote. Even before the polls opened in Ohio on Election Day 2012, Obama’s analytics staff predicted that the president was getting 56.4 percent of the early vote in Hamilton County, which contains Cincinnati. The guess was just two-tenths of a percent away from the actual tally released by county officials as soon as polls closed.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_a..._election.html

[Senator Clay Davis]

Best poll for Trump in a while

FL: Trump 45, Clinton 43, Johnson 4, Stein 2 (Bloomberg)

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

And 538's polls plus now has him winning Arizona, Iowa and Ohio. Still only 17% overall though.

[Drak]

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton LA Times/USC Tracking Clinton 44, Trump 45 Trump +1

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

And 538's polls plus now has him winning Arizona, Iowa and Ohio. Still only 17% overall though.

His problem is that he can win all of those, and Florida, and still lose the election. He needs to win North Carolina too, or else peel off a much more difficult target in Colorado or Michigan/Wisconsin. North Carolina is probably the easiest target on that list but he hasn't led in a poll there in some time and early voting is well under way.

He apparently recently did a $2 million dollar ad buy in Virginia, which has the local GOP there scratching their heads as they think he will be lucky to get 35% of the vote there. It appears that for all of his "genius," Trump doesn't really get how elections actually work.