Wild Card Race (Western Conference)

[Resolute 14]

San Jose beating Vancouver helps in that bringing the Canucks back to the pack makes a situation of four teams fighting for two positions rather than three teams fighting for one.

I keep waiting for Winnipeg or Minnesota to fall back to earth. Bloody annoying that they just won't go away.

[formulate]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

To be fair, everyone else in the race is thinking the same thing about the OOT scoreboard.

Yep. Winnipeg for example, (according to sportsclubstats) had their playoff chances drop 5.5% while not even playing a game. Minnesota has their odds drop slightly despite a win. We can at least be happy the SJ/VAN game ended in regulation, and Minnesota didn't get the ROW.

[White Out 403]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

San Jose beating Vancouver helps in that bringing the Canucks back to the pack makes a situation of four teams fighting for two positions rather than three teams fighting for one.

I keep waiting for Winnipeg or Minnesota to fall back to earth. Bloody annoying that they just won't go away.

Winnipeg has been consistent all year. The fancy stats are also in their favour. Why would they "fall back to earth?". The Jets had a crap 2 weeks post all star break and are right back on track where they were before. They've also removed a locker room distraction and added some cheap pieces that will help in the stretch drive.

I'm as sceptical about the Jets as anyone and Chevy specifically... But he's made very smart moves this year and this team is 9 points Better this amount of games last year.

Jets are making the playoffs.

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

San Jose beating Vancouver helps in that bringing the Canucks back to the pack makes a situation of four teams fighting for two positions rather than three teams fighting for one.

Markstrom says you're welcome.

[Resolute 14]

Lack gave up more goals than the Canucks scored too.

Hopefully both of them keep it up.

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Lack gave up more goals than the Canucks scored too.

Hopefully both of them keep it up.

Thought Lack only gave up one? Last two were EN.

[J epworth]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Lack gave up more goals than the Canucks scored too.

Hopefully both of them keep it up.

Lack only let in one goal last night, but the fact that they can't trust Markstrom at all is going to hurt the Canucks, Lack so far has shown he struggles with an increased workload; he's still young so he's probably going to get better with experience, but still a risky situation for the Canucks right now.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Lack gave up more goals than the Canucks scored too.

Hopefully both of them keep it up.

Lack only gave up 1

Markstrom 3 goals on 4 shots
Empty "Let Goalie" Net 2 goals on 2 shots

Who's better?

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by J epworth

Lack only let in one goal last night, but the fact that they can't trust Markstrom at all is going to hurt the Canucks, Lack so far has shown he struggles with an increased workload.

Yep.

Pretty much worst case scenario for us. Lack has to hold the fort and hope he can keep us above water. Don't trust Markstrom, doubt the team does now either.

[Enoch Root]

To get to 96 points (which I think is the bar with this many teams competing) Dallas and Colorado would need to go:

DAL: 15-3-0
COL: 15-3-1

Stick a fork in them.

Though I do hope they can post some wins against the other teams in the race.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

To get to 96 points (which I think is the bar with this many teams competing) Dallas and Colorado would need to go:

DAL: 15-3-0
COL: 15-3-1

To look at what everyone would need to do to get to 96 points,

VAN: 10-8-1
MIN: 10-8-1
WPG: 10-8-0
CGY: 12-7-0
LAK: 12-7-0
SJS: 12-5-0

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

Thought Lack only gave up one? Last two were EN.

Ahh thanks. Forgot about the probabilities of ENs. Though pulling the goalie down 5-2 after already getting scored on with your net empty is just begging to demoralize your team.

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Ahh thanks. Forgot about the probabilities of ENs. Though pulling the goalie down 5-2 after already getting scored on with your net empty is just begging to demoralize your team.

I always find it funny that when one NHL coach or GM does something stupid, how other GMs and Coaches will jump on it and try it.

In this case, Roy pulling his goalie at ridiculous times seems to have caught on and WD has been doing #### like this all season. Has it worked for anyone yet?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

To look at what everyone would need to do to get to 96 points,

VAN: 10-8-1
MIN: 10-8-1
WPG: 10-8-0
CGY: 12-7-0
LAK: 12-7-0
SJS: 12-5-0

4 of those teams get in - it seems pretty likely that 4 will hit 96 points.

And for DAL and COL, they have to PASS 3 of these teams. Which, like I said, means pretty much running the table.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

^Yes. Of the four, it seems very likely to me that LA makes it. One of the teams that needs to go 10-8ish will falter and go under .500 down the stretch. That's just Nostradamus talk though really, even though it's an informed guess.

Can't find it but someone actually did the math last season and found that NHL coaches by and large were too conservative about the timing of goalie pulls - down 1, the ideal time to pull the keeper is with ~2 minutes left (longer when down 2), and most coaches would wait until less than 1:30 to go. That seems to have trended this year more towards the 2 minute mark.

The issue I have is pulling the goalie when you have a late power play for the 6-on-4. Because of the freedom to ice the puck and the adjustment to your normal power play formation I would say just leave the G in, and pull him once the PP expires. I have no statistical proof but my intuitive sense is that overall scoring rate doesn't increase dramatically between 5-on-4 and 6-on-4.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

I always find it funny that when one NHL coach or GM does something stupid, how other GMs and Coaches will jump on it and try it.

In this case, Roy pulling his goalie at ridiculous times seems to have caught on and WD has been doing #### like this all season. Has it worked for anyone yet?

The Flames have pulled it off a couple times, but yeah, the only thing that usually results from pulling a goalie with 5 minutes left is putting him back in, down one more, with 4 minutes left.

[getbak]

Here are the remaining games that the six teams in the hunt have against each other...

Vancouver: 6 of 19 (SJS, WPG x 2, LAK x 3)
Minnesota: 3 of 19 (CGY, LAK, WPG)
Winnipeg: 5 of 18 (CGY, MIN, SJS, VAN x 2)
Calgary: 3 of 19 (LAK, MIN, WPG)
Los Angeles: 6 of 19 (CGY, MIN, SJS, VAN x 3)
San Jose: 3 of 17 (LAK, VAN, WPG)


The five games that Vancouver has against the Jets and Kings will go a long way towards determining who gets in and who doesn't. If they win all 5, they'll be pretty solid, but if they lose all 5, they could be on the outside when the season ends. Of course, worst case scenario is for all of those games to go to OT and the Canucks get 8 of 10 and their opponents get 7 of 10.

2 of the Flames' 3 games against the "hunt" teams are the final two games of the season, so there's a good chance things will already be determined before those games are even played. I don't know if that plays in the Flames' favour or not.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

SJS's next 5 games go VAN, PIT, NSH, CHI, WPG. Anything less than 5 points out of those is going to have me removing them from contention I'd say.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by getbak

Here are the remaining games that the six teams in the hunt have against each other...

Vancouver: 6 of 19 (SJS, WPG x 2, LAK x 3)
Minnesota: 3 of 19 (CGY, LAK, WPG)
Winnipeg: 5 of 18 (CGY, MIN, SJS, VAN x 2)
Calgary: 3 of 19 (LAK, MIN, WPG)
Los Angeles: 6 of 19 (CGY, MIN, SJS, VAN x 3)
San Jose: 3 of 17 (LAK, VAN, WPG)


The five games that Vancouver has against the Jets and Kings will go a long way towards determining who gets in and who doesn't. If they win all 5, they'll be pretty solid, but if they lose all 5, they could be on the outside when the season ends. Of course, worst case scenario is for all of those games to go to OT and the Canucks get 8 of 10 and their opponents get 7 of 10.

2 of the Flames' 3 games against the "hunt" teams are the final two games of the season, so there's a good chance things will already be determined before those games are even played. I don't know if that plays in the Flames' favour or not.

With the 3 games between the Nucks and the Kings, we need one team to sweep.

Stay ahead of SJ, and let one of those two knock the other out.

[AcGold]

It's going to come down to Winnipeg and Calgary in the last game of the season. Winnipeg is going to fall back in the next 2 weeks while LA moves into our spot. San Jose isn't making it.