Russia invades Ukraine

[opendoor]

The Pentagon has now put the US drone sale to Ukraine on hold for fear of the technology falling into Russian hands:

The Biden administration's plan to sell four large, armable drones to Ukraine has been paused on the fear its sophisticated surveillance equipment might fall into enemy hands, according to two people familiar with the matter.

The technical objection to the sale was raised during a deeper review by the Pentagon's Defense Technology Security Administration charged with keeping high value technology safe from enemy hands. Previously the plan, which has been circulating since March, had been approved by the White House, three people said.

The plan to sell Ukraine four MQ-1C Gray Eagle drones that can be armed with Hellfire missiles for battlefield use against Russia was first reported by Reuters earlier in June.

The objection to the export of the drones arose due to concerns the radar and surveillance equipment on the drones could create a security risk for the United States if it fell into Russian hands.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...es-2022-06-17/


In good news, the Russian offensive looks like it has basically stalled out for now. They're still likely inflicting heavy losses, but gaining basically no ground other than little bits of Severodonetsk.

[FlamesAddiction]

I didn't see this posted. A member of Putin's party drafted a bill to be passed in Russia's Duma to revoke recognition of Lithuania as an independent country. It followed a bill passed in Lithuania officially recognizing Russia's actions in Ukraine as genocide and Russia as a terrorist state.

https://bnn-news.com/bnn-analyses-sh...endence-235542

Apparently it extends to Latvia and Estonia too.

https://www.baltictimes.com/state_du..._independence/

[curves2000]

Any update on what is happening with giving basic and advanced military training to members of the basic public and reservists? With the vast majority of men 18-65 not allowed to leave, there is a huge resource that will eventually need to be used in some capacity if the country is to ever return to it's former self in some form.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by curves2000

Any update on what is happening with giving basic and advanced military training to members of the basic public and reservists? With the vast majority of men 18-65 not allowed to leave, there is a huge resource that will eventually need to be used in some capacity if the country is to ever return to it's former self in some form.

It’s all OJT.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I didn't see this posted. A member of Putin's party drafted a bill to be passed in Russia's Duma to revoke recognition of Lithuania as an independent country. It followed a bill passed in Lithuania officially recognizing Russia's actions in Ukraine as genocide and Russia as a terrorist state.

https://bnn-news.com/bnn-analyses-sh...endence-235542

Apparently it extends to Latvia and Estonia too.

https://www.baltictimes.com/state_du..._independence/

So Russia is digging in for the long haul. Thr state mechanism has chosen to isolate further from the global order. The war won’t end unless they militarily defeated, or Putin dies and someone who has Russias best interests takes his place.

There’s zero appetite to invade the Russian mainland so we hope the sanctions squeeze em till Putin dies or their economy collapses. Bleak.

[burn_this_city]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1538297045089497088

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

So Russia is digging in for the long haul. Thr state mechanism has chosen to isolate further from the global order. The war won’t end unless they militarily defeated, or Putin dies and someone who has Russias best interests takes his place.

There’s zero appetite to invade the Russian mainland so we hope the sanctions squeeze em till Putin dies or their economy collapses. Bleak.

Not only digging in but hints of invading Baltic state countries as well, this is what happens when you let a thug get away with invasion and mass murder.

I guess we'll see how strong NATO really is.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by activeStick

The US Open is welcoming Russian and Belarusian players to their tournament. It feels like the bulk of people here were more supportive of punishing all Russians for the war, but I'm on the other side of that and happy that regular athletes and everyday citizens won't be punished for the actions of their government.

As we learned from Wimbledon, if you ban Russians, you are dropped from ATP tour

https://www.atptour.com/en/news/atp-...wimbledon-2022

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by IliketoPuck

I'm glad that at least we seem to have dispensed with the "this war is about Russia pushing back against NATO" narrative.

Blatant imperialistic aggression in 2022. Take a bow, Russia.

Russian leaders keep telling that they "absolutely had to" start this war as they "had no other choice". At least, it shows that they know the war is very unpopular.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I didn't see this posted. A member of Putin's party drafted a bill to be passed in Russia's Duma to revoke recognition of Lithuania as an independent country. It followed a bill passed in Lithuania officially recognizing Russia's actions in Ukraine as genocide and Russia as a terrorist state.

https://bnn-news.com/bnn-analyses-sh...endence-235542

Apparently it extends to Latvia and Estonia too.

https://www.baltictimes.com/state_du..._independence/

Russian propaganda blames Lithuania for a blockage of Kaliningrad - a Russian enclave that is separated from Russia by Lithuania and Belarus. I have seen nothing against Estonia and Latvia so far.

More on Lithuania here

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ay-2022-06-18/

[Agamemnon]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

Not only digging in but hints of invading Baltic state countries as well, this is what happens when you let a thug get away with invasion and mass murder.

I guess we'll see how strong NATO really is.

Very difficult to imagine many NATO countries ignoring their commitment to collective self-defense. All rhetoric aside, Ukraine is not an ally of the West or Europe, the Baltic states are treaty members. Not even close to the same scenario. The West is piling weapons/support into a non-ally in this case... not sure how that's a sign of lack of defense commitment.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Pointman

Russian propaganda blames Lithuania for a blockage of Kaliningrad - a Russian enclave that is separated from Russia by Lithuania and Belarus. I have seen nothing against Estonia and Latvia so far.

More on Lithuania here

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ay-2022-06-18/

Germany shoulda just taken that back when the USSR collapsed and told all the Russians there to go home and let the families of Germans displaced in 1945 return.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by Agamemnon

Very difficult to imagine many NATO countries ignoring their commitment to collective self-defense. All rhetoric aside, Ukraine is not an ally of the West or Europe, the Baltic states are treaty members. Not even close to the same scenario. The West is piling weapons/support into a non-ally in this case... not sure how that's a sign of lack of defense commitment.

USA, UK and Russia had a treaty with Ukraine about security guarantees in return for Ukraine surrendering its nuclear weapons. Russia has sure breached it, but my understanding is that USA and UK were supposed to help Ukraine more:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buda...ity_Assurances

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Germany shoulda just taken that back when the USSR collapsed and told all the Russians there to go home and let the families of Germans displaced in 1945 return.

Russia was in shambles back then but still had nukes. Germany could have bought Kaliningrad back though. I don't understand why we don't see deals like Russia selling Alaska to USA more often. It is surely a more civilized way to handle such things than war.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Pointman

USA, UK and Russia had a treaty with Ukraine about security guarantees in return for Ukraine surrendering its nuclear weapons. Russia has sure breached it, but my understanding is that USA and UK were supposed to help Ukraine more:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buda...ity_Assurances

There was no mutual defense guarantee in that agreement like there is with NATO; it was more of a non-aggression pact:

1. Respect Belarusian, Kazakh and Ukrainian independence and sovereignty in the existing borders.
2. Refrain from the threat or the use of force against Belarus, Kazakhstan or Ukraine.
3. Refrain from using economic pressure on Belarus, Kazakhstan or Ukraine to influence their politics.
4. Seek immediate Security Council action to provide assistance to Belarus, Kazakhstan or Ukraine if they "should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used".
5. Refrain from the use of nuclear arms against Belarus, Kazakhstan or Ukraine.
6. Consult with one another if questions arise regarding those commitments.

So Russia obviously broke their obligations, but nothing in there requires other countries to enter a war in defense of Ukraine.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by opendoor

There was no mutual defense guarantee in that agreement like there is with NATO; it was more of a non-aggression pact:

So Russia obviously broke their obligations, but nothing in there requires other countries to enter a war in defense of Ukraine.

Those were quite weak guarantees. Ukraine should have never gave up their nukes.

[opendoor]

I don't think Ukraine ever had real control over them. They were on Ukrainian soil, but only Russia had the codes to actually use them, and Ukraine didn't really have the infrastructure to maintain them. They also got billions of dollars in debt forgiven as part of the process.

[burn_this_city]

Russia's game plan is to starve the 3rd world to force appeasement.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1538911097138331648

[blankall]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Russia's game plan is to starve the 3rd world to force appeasement.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1538911097138331648

How does anyone convince themselves that Russia is fighting a justified war when they make statements like that? I get that there might be some reasoning where you could possibly convince yourself that Russia is fighting neo-Nazis or Western imperialism/aggression.....but then they have a spokesman boasting about manufacturing a global famine....

[Agamemnon]

Originally Posted by Pointman

USA, UK and Russia had a treaty with Ukraine about security guarantees in return for Ukraine surrendering its nuclear weapons. Russia has sure breached it, but my understanding is that USA and UK were supposed to help Ukraine more:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buda...ity_Assurances

I'm not familiar - does that treaty pledge mutual-defense from the USA in the event the agreement is breached? I don't believe so.

A security guarantee and a mutual-defense alliance are different.

From your link - "The Budapest Memorandum was negotiated at political level, but it is not entirely clear whether the instrument is devoid entirely of legal provisions. It refers to assurances, but it does not impose a legal obligation of military assistance on its parties.[1][27] According to Stephen MacFarlane, a professor of international relations, "It gives signatories justification if they take action, but it does not force anyone to act in Ukraine."

This is nowhere near the level of commitment that NATO represents.