Russia invades Ukraine

[Firebot]

There's not much happening in term of major movement in recent days, mainly because Russia has completely stalled out in and the offensive has been a total disaster on Severodonetsk at best.

They have supposedly resorted to retreating out of the city to level everything that remains, Ukraine forces had to withdraw to safer positions. It's expected that Russia will do a final heavy push into the city after leveling it to make Putin's declared June 10 date.

In effect the city right now is empty, outside of 10K civilians who refused to leave.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1534936580942614528

Ukraine also reported to now be within 15 km of Kherson itself.

[burn_this_city]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1535011816442576896

[opendoor]

Russia will probably keep grinding trying to close the pocket and trap the Ukrainian army, but at their current pace that's going to take weeks to months, for what is ultimately a tiny bit of land (something like 30km x 30km).

Unfortunately the defenders' advantage that Ukraine had in terms of casualties earlier in the war seems to have mostly disappeared. Even Ukrainian leadership is now saying 100-200 are being KIA per day (which implies 500-1000 total casualties per day) and the US is estimating that overall military losses are now fairly similar between the two countries.

[burn_this_city]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1535017098765914129

[opendoor]

Pretty bleak overview of the current situation from Ukrainian military intelligence that underscores their need for more Western weapons (particularly artillery):

Ukraine’s deputy head of military intelligence has said Ukraine is losing against Russia on the frontlines and is now almost solely reliant on weapons from the west to keep Russia at bay.

“This is an artillery war now,” said Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence. The frontlines were now where the future would be decided, he told the Guardian, “and we are losing in terms of artillery”.

“Everything now depends on what [the west] gives us,” said Skibitsky. “Ukraine has one artillery piece to 10 to 15 Russian artillery pieces. Our western partners have given us about 10% of what they have.”

Ukraine is using 5,000 to 6,000 artillery rounds a day, according to Skibitsky. “We have almost used up all of our [artillery] ammunition and are now using 155-calibre Nato standard shells,” he said of the ammunition that is fired from artillery pieces.

“Europe is also delivering lower-calibre shells but as Europe runs out, the amount is getting smaller.”

And the difficulty of taking back territory if they lose it:

Lastly, in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, two southern Ukrainian regions that Russia almost completely occupies, Russian forces were digging in for the long haul, said Skibitsky. According to him, they are building double, sometimes triple, lines of defence.

“It will now be harder to get that territory back,” said Skibitsky. “And that’s why we need to weapons.”

“If they succeed in the Donbas, they could use these territories to launch another attack on Odesa, [the city of] Zaporizhzhia [and] Dnipro,” said Skibitsky of major cities under Ukrainian control which are in close proximity to the southern Russian-occupied areas. “Their aim is the whole of Ukraine and more.”

Ukraine’s military intelligence believes that Russia can continue at its current rate without manufacturing more weapons or mobilising the population for another year.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...s-says-ukraine

Hopefully they're overstating things slightly to push for more weapons, because running low on ammo for the vast majority of their artillery with no real way to replace it could be catastrophic. And then there's also the question of how much more weaponry Western countries are willing and able to supply And how long it'll take them to train soldiers to use any new equipment; hopefully that's already going on.

[burn_this_city]

What they really need is a huge amount of MLRS from the West. I'm hoping the US is using the first ones to train them on and behind the scenes moving to provide dozens of systems. Now that Putin is talking about taking other land in the Baltics I hope it wakes up the laggards in western EU.

[CroFlames]

This is the exact kind of stuff that happened on a macro level in WWII. Visit violence and destruction on areas so the civilian population leaves, then bring in your own civilian population after hostilities cease and lay claim to the land.

Many Ukrainian civilians have fled abroad or to other areas of Ukraine out of the East. As the war drags on and Russian families occupy Ukrainians' former homes, there would be no point in spending manpower and materiel to take it back.

Moscow literally moved Poland over. Kaliningrad, Silesia, Pomerania, Danzig, etc. No one is arguing these days that these territories should be returned to Germany, because no Germans live there anymore. Yet they were German places since Roman times.

A generation from now, most people will consider Donbas/Luhansk etc rightful Russian territory given the ethnic makeup of the area.

The fact this is happening in 2022 in hi-def is mind bottling.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

What they really need is a huge amount of MLRS from the West. I'm hoping the US is using the first ones to train them on and behind the scenes moving to provide dozens of systems. Now that Putin is talking about taking other land in the Baltics I hope it wakes up the laggards in western EU.

Yeah, kind of seems like a no-brainer to send more MLRS/HIMARS ASAP. The US sent about 10% of their M777 supply, so if they do the same with the rocket launchers that'd be about 100 M270s and 50 HIMARs. Not game changing by any means, but it would definitely allow Ukraine to more effectively respond to Russia's artillery.

Unfortunately after blundering their way at the start of the war, Russia has now shifted to a strategy that plays more to their strengths. They have tons and tons of artillery leftover from the USSR era, so they can keep firing on Ukrainian positions constantly. People seem to be conflating their slow advance with weakness, but it's also possible that it's an intentional strategy to limit their own losses while inflicting significant damage on Ukrainian forces.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

This is the exact kind of stuff that happened on a macro level in WWII. Visit violence and destruction on areas so the civilian population leaves, then bring in your own civilian population after hostilities cease and lay claim to the land.

Many Ukrainian civilians have fled abroad or to other areas of Ukraine out of the East. As the war drags on and Russian families occupy Ukrainians' former homes, there would be no point in spending manpower and materiel to take it back.

Moscow literally moved Poland over. Kaliningrad, Silesia, Pomerania, Danzig, etc. No one is arguing these days that these territories should be returned to Germany, because no Germans live there anymore. Yet they were German places since Roman times.

A generation from now, most people will consider Donbas/Luhansk etc rightful Russian territory given the ethnic makeup of the area.

The fact this is happening in 2022 in hi-def is mind bottling.

Finland too. They lost 10% of their land in the Winter War and never really got it back. The population of Karelia was evacuated in 1940, then about 60% of them returned later when Finland gained the territory back, but were then evacuated again in 1944. Now that territory is still part of Russia.

[burn_this_city]

This video is pretty wild, tons of rockets flying around after their launchers get hit.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1535286866379157504

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Finland too. They lost 10% of their land in the Winter War and never really got it back. The population of Karelia was evacuated in 1940, then about 60% of them returned later when Finland gained the territory back, but were then evacuated again in 1944. Now that territory is still part of Russia.

For what it worth my wife was born in that land (Rautu/Sosnovo). It has 100% Russian population now. To learn that it was once Finnish was akin to learning that New York was founded as a Dutch city. No trace of it remains.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

This is the exact kind of stuff that happened on a macro level in WWII. Visit violence and destruction on areas so the civilian population leaves, then bring in your own civilian population after hostilities cease and lay claim to the land.

Many Ukrainian civilians have fled abroad or to other areas of Ukraine out of the East. As the war drags on and Russian families occupy Ukrainians' former homes, there would be no point in spending manpower and materiel to take it back.

Moscow literally moved Poland over. Kaliningrad, Silesia, Pomerania, Danzig, etc. No one is arguing these days that these territories should be returned to Germany, because no Germans live there anymore. Yet they were German places since Roman times.

A generation from now, most people will consider Donbas/Luhansk etc rightful Russian territory given the ethnic makeup of the area.

The fact this is happening in 2022 in hi-def is mind bottling.

This is why when people suggest there should just be a referendum in Luhansk and Donetsk, it isn't a solution. All post-war and war-time referendums do is justify ethnic cleansing. Russia has been actively trying to change the demographic composition of Ukraine for a long time, especially in Eastern Ukraine for the last 10 years.

[curves2000]

The West is going to really need to dig deep and figure out what on earth they are going to want from this war and come up with an actual strategy to deal with it and it's associated side effects. Full stop. The amount of issues that this conflict is creating, will create and will continue to create is enough to make your head spin.

Energy inflation, security, a Ukrainian refugee and humanitarian crisis, the potential for a food and hunger crisis that is devastating and more. This will only exasperate existing issues with everybody and everbody else will deal with the fall out.

If NATO and the west are cool with losing Ukraine to Russia, than fine, say it and move on and wish them the best. If they are trying to avoid that from happening, than provide them with the amount of weapons they need and do it now. No more games, no more politics, no more we will see what happens. Everybody needs to get on board with a common strategy and execute it.

We got lots of countries dragging their feet on shipping weapons to Ukraine like Germany with their history of filth and trying to play games. The US has stepped up in a lot of ways but they need to lead hard on it. Canada needs to do a lot more with it's resources as well. Taking in some refugee's is all fine and dandy but we have zero plan.

A leading executive at one of the immigration societies that deals with refugee's as a whole said it's the same game from the feds. Make annoucement's, provide little to no funding, everybody get's over worked and quits and it's a bad cycle over and over. He is concerned that once more financial and income support is announces, the flood of new applications will overwhelm the system. They are already trying to find housing for 1500 Afghan refugee's now who are currently in hotels in downtown Calgary.

[opendoor]

That assumes that the West has the ability to dictate the outcome of the war, when we really don't. Once you accept that, then the current policies make more sense. Western countries want to support Ukraine and bog down Russia, but not at the expense of their own security. So they'll continue to send in arms where possible, but the US isn't going to give up half its artillery arsenal, which is probably what it'd take to put Ukraine on par with Russia.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by opendoor

That assumes that the West has the ability to dictate the outcome of the war, when we really don't. Once you accept that, then the current policies make more sense. Western countries want to support Ukraine and bog down Russia, but not at the expense of their own security. So they'll continue to send in arms where possible, but the US isn't going to give up half its artillery arsenal, which is probably what it'd take to put Ukraine on par with Russia.

The hell with artillery, there are 100's of heavily armed drones throughout NATO, bring in a bunch of Ukrainian video game players and let them control the chaos.(with a little guidance of course)

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

The hell with artillery, there are 100's of heavily armed drones throughout NATO, bring in a bunch of Ukrainian video game players and let them control the chaos.(with a little guidance of course)

Even the US only has a few hundred MQ-9 Reapers. Expensive, heavy lumbering drones (with only a bit better flight characteristics then the obsolete TBD Devastator at the start of WW2) that can carry a decent weapon load is useful against technologically backward foes but they aren't game changers in a modern battlefield. They're too few and expensive to risk in a proxy war against a foe that has modern air defenses and electronic warfare

Artillery is given the title of the King of Battle for good reason, it usually causes the most casualties and damage, and batters troop morale. And artillery was always the forte of Soviet military doctrine.

[Snuffleupagus]

Did you just compare an old 200mph torpedo bomber to a Reaper?

The Reaper is now old but not only is it vastly better and faster it would take out the whole aircraft carrier before the Douglas could take off.

And the US have much better drones now that fly above modern air defenses and some are even stealth, they carry 1000's of lbs of pinpoint bombs and missiles.

Artillery is old school, just like the Russian military.

[CaptainCrunch]

I think you're under estimating the effectiveness of modern artillary and its ability to pour a lot of fire into concentrated space in a hurry.



While Drones are great, and certainly a step forward, its not the same thing.



With Artillary and the new forms of munitions and submunitions for example the M982 guided round, Or the Smart 155 top down anti-armor round.


Artillery can devastate a village in seconds. It can drop a bridge or take out strategic depots and rally points.


On another note I was reading that the estimate of Ukrainian soldier fatalities was up to 200 a day. While Russia is taking massive losses of personal, so is Ukraine and the calculus of attrition is on the Russian side.

[CaptainCrunch]

Oh and tone deaf Canadian Government official attends a Russian Party at the Russian Embassy in Ottawa.



I mean how can someone possibly be that dumb


https://globalnews.ca/news/8915726/u...=%40globalnews

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Oh and tone deaf Canadian Government official attends a Russian Party at the Russian Embassy in Ottawa.

I mean how can someone possibly be that dumb

https://globalnews.ca/news/8915726/u...=%40globalnews

What's more likely: the party was attended for the diplomats to let loose, celebrate Russia, and have a good time...or, this was an opportunity to engage in some diplomacy and gather intelligence about the war?