Russia invades Ukraine

[Firebot]

Updates for June 6

https://twitter.com/user/status/1533862147599605760

https://twitter.com/user/status/1533846418179366912

https://twitter.com/user/status/1533820746778263552

It's really unfortunate to know that the Mariupol defenders were forced to surrender due to a deal that Russia turned its back on, we know they had no choice and were out of water and dying fast, but they accepted an order from the Ukrainian government and put down their weapons.

Russia's navy is basically out of cruise missiles and resorting to using weapons like anti-ship missiles to attack Ukrainian infrastructure. How does Russia ever expect to recover? It's as if generals were simply told "take and destroy Ukraine" and they are just using anything they have at their disposal to not get fired or killed, just to avoid telling Putin they are out of weapons and being reassigned to the Gulags.

[Firebot]

Oh and a side note, Zelensky went on the frontlines today to rally the troops. His security detail was probably like "you want to go WHERE?"

https://twitter.com/user/status/1533619320093388800

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

I remain very surprised at how well Ukraine has managed to maintain the positions that it has for so long. I am equally surprised that Russia hasn't been totally crippled in terms of its ability to maintain the war spend, infrastructure supporting its troops and equipment yet.

A lot of the information that was presented by experts early on in the conflict has proved to be erroneous.

[CroFlames]

I always maintained that Russia was a bit of a paper tiger (besides the nuclear arsenal), so I wouldn't say I'm shocked at the this outcome so far, but I am somewhat surprised how well the Ukrainians repelled them and continue to do so.

The influx of western weapons will turn the tide so long as the West and Ukraine remain motivated.

[FLAMESRULE]

Originally Posted by Firebot

Oh and a side note, Zelensky went on the frontlines today to rally the troops. His security detail was probably like "you want to go WHERE?"

https://twitter.com/user/status/1533619320093388800

GIGANTIC Balls on that guy. It's amazing what he's done for Ukraine, a modern day Churchill. It also speaks to just how tight and secure Ukrainians are with their intel and security. They seem to pick off RUS generals at will and yet can spirit in Zelensky to the front line. Obviously its only a short time spent there, but this isnt the first time.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

I remain very surprised at how well Ukraine has managed to maintain the positions that it has for so long. I am equally surprised that Russia hasn't been totally crippled in terms of its ability to maintain the war spend, infrastructure supporting its troops and equipment yet.

A lot of the information that was presented by experts early on in the conflict has proved to be erroneous.

Anyone who was saying that Russia's weapons supply was going to be crippled in the matter of a few months was out to lunch. Even with their ineptitude and the heavy damage that Ukraine has inflicted on them, they still have a vast number of weapons at their disposal. And now that they're not trying to take huge parts of Ukrainian territory, they can more easily supply their forces.

Sanctions will hopefully limit their ability to replenish their arsenal, but they still have an insane amount of artillery sitting in reserve. Skilled troops might be a less abundant resource, but that hasn't really stopped Russia before. Long term, it's a quagmire that they'll probably struggle to ever recover from. But in the short to medium term, I expect they'll be willing to continue to throw resources at the war even if by any objective measure it's a terrible idea.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

I remain very surprised at how well Ukraine has managed to maintain the positions that it has for so long. I am equally surprised that Russia hasn't been totally crippled in terms of its ability to maintain the war spend, infrastructure supporting its troops and equipment yet.

A lot of the information that was presented by experts early on in the conflict has proved to be erroneous.

I think this conflict is a good example of just difficult it is to guess how a war is going to go. It's just really hard to know what the fighting ability of a certain military is when they're put in a situation they haven't been in before, and there's just so many factors. Logistics, motivation, leadership, the quality of information on both sides etc etc.

There's also multiple countries you need to make predictions on, not just the two sides in direct conflict. There's still some open questions about Russia's ability to commit manpower to this longterm. Few would have guessed Zelensky could become an international superstar who's charisma and media skills can sway public opinion outside his own country. I'm not sure anyone knew if Turkey was going to close the gates to the Black Sea or not, which has a big impact on what's going on at the southern front. How many would have guessed that Poland was ready to give billions of dollars worth in military aid (on top of all the other aid), actually cutting quite deep into it's own military stockpile.

How easy it was to guess that Ukraine would get significant help in repairing equipment from several neighboring countries, which has a big impact on it's ability to keep their equipment on the field.

So many factors. People will spend careers studying this war.

Oh, and there's increasing rumors that Putin's health is deteriorating. What happens if Putin dies? His last "public appearance" was televised almost two weeks ago, and there's claims that even that was put together from canned footage.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by Itse

Oh, and there's increasing rumors that Putin's health is deteriorating. What happens if Putin dies? His last "public appearance" was televised almost two weeks ago, and there's claims that even that was put together from canned footage.

There will be lists instructing who gets shot/defenestrated in what order. It's the Russian way.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

There will be lists instructing who gets shot/defenestrated in what order. It's the Russian way.

While I love that movie, it's incredibly historically inaccurate. (In a smart way.)

[opendoor]

Lots of conflicting reports about what happened in Sievierodonetsk, and now the ISW is saying they can't confirm that the counterattack happened as was reported:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1533969107778883585

The nature of urban combat in Severodonetsk is likely obfuscating reports of control of terrain within the city, though Russian forces likely retain control over much of the city. Head of the Luhansk Regional State Administration Serhiy Haidai claimed on June 5 that Ukrainian forces managed to retake large parts of Severodonetsk and push Russian forces to the outskirts of the city during successful urban counterattacks. Ukrainian journalist Yuri Butusov, however, denied Haidai’s claims on June 5 and claimed that Ukrainian forces only control the Azot industrial sector of Severodonetsk. Haidai amended his claims on June 6 and reported that the situation in Severodonetsk has deteriorated significantly, adding that Ukrainian forces were indeed fighting within the Azot industrial site on June 6. The reason for Haidai and Butusov’s conflicting reports is unclear, and heavy urban fighting is ongoing in the city.

[burn_this_city]

The jet shot down yesterday sounds like it was friendly fire on a Ukrainian plane.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Itse

Turkey's resistance to Sweden joining NATO is currently threatening to collapse the Swedish government. The short version is;

Opposition has organized a parliamentary vote to remove the current minister of justice for local Swedish reasons (specifically, Sweden has a rising gang violence problem). (These types of votes are pretty common in Swedish politics.) The prime minister has threatened to resign if the motion passes, which would collapse the government.

The four parties that have joined in on this currently have 174 votes in the parliament, out of 175 needed to pass the motion and force the resignation. In other words, the government hangs on one vote.

The way this relates to Turkey and NATO is that there's one very specific undecided vote: Amineh Kakabaveh, an independent Kurdish mp, who obviously is very concerned over the demands Turkey has placed on Sweden about the kurdish question. Turkey is demanding (among other things) that Sweden should send over kurdish opposition figures currently living in Sweden, something Kakabaveh obviously opposes.

So, as things are, if the current Swedish government tries to give in too much to Turkey on the Kurdish issue, Kakabaveh could realistically bring the government down and force an early election.

Who says politics are boring

Okay, so an update on this. Kakabaveh voted "abstain", saving the government. This was the third time for her. Hope she got solid promises in return.

[Cheese]

Great Article
Russia’s Ill-Fated Invasion of Ukraine: Lessons in Modern Warfare

Russia has failed to achieve most of its objectives in Ukraine because of poor military planning, significant logistical problems, low combat readiness, and other deficiencies, which undermined Russian military effectiveness. These and other challenges—including Ukrainian military efforts and Western aid—severely impacted Russian air, ground, cyber, and maritime operations. Russia’s failures will force the Russian military to fundamentally rethink its training practices, organizational structure, culture, logistics, recruitment and retention policies, and planning efforts. Nevertheless, Russia is still attempting a de facto annexation of parts of eastern and southern Ukraine that it controls.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

I remain very surprised at how well Ukraine has managed to maintain the positions that it has for so long. I am equally surprised that Russia hasn't been totally crippled in terms of its ability to maintain the war spend, infrastructure supporting its troops and equipment yet.

A lot of the information that was presented by experts early on in the conflict has proved to be erroneous.

One more reason to never start a war - nobody knows how it's going to end up. Putin most likely had expected to have Kyiv conquered and whole Ukraine being under his control by this point, and so did most western experts as well. Conversely, western santcions were supposed to destroy Russian economy and, particularly, send Russian ruble into abyss, and neither is actually happening.

[chedder]

Here's how they're able to keep funding this war. $20 billion per month

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ycott-iea-says

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Pointman

One more reason to never start a war - nobody knows how it's going to end up. Putin most likely had expected to have Kyiv conquered and whole Ukraine being under his control by this point, and so did most western experts as well. Conversely, western santcions were supposed to destroy Russian economy and, particularly, send Russian ruble into abyss, and neither is actually happening.

A major reason the sanctions don't work is that they still don't really apply to fossil fuels.

According to Bloomberg, Russian oil revenue is actually up 50% this year. Reasons for the rise include rising oil prices, and India starting to buy huge amounts of Russian oil after the war. Turkey has also increased it's imports significantly, as have many of Russias Caucasian neighbours, but India is the big one.

43% of Russian oil exports still go to the EU, down from 50% pre-war.

The EU is seriously working on ways to cut down their imports, hope they actually get there.

[Rutuu]

Originally Posted by Pointman

One more reason to never start a war - nobody knows how it's going to end up. Putin most likely had expected to have Kyiv conquered and whole Ukraine being under his control by this point, and so did most western experts as well. Conversely, western santcions were supposed to destroy Russian economy and, particularly, send Russian ruble into abyss, and neither is actually happening.

For the sanctions, it's only been a little over a 100days. It was never going to be immediate. The best part about the sanctions is we can let them ride and see what happens.

Maybe Putin will fall in love with his new Chinese overlords.

[FlamesAddiction]

I can't help but think the sanctions have hurt other countries as much, or more than they are currently hurting Russia. Gas prices in Canada have pretty much doubled since the sanctions began, which has also contributed to sky rocketing inflation. Maybe I am jumping to a correlation when I shouldn't, but on the surface as someone without strong background in how all these things interconnect, it does seem that way. If I am out to lunch, let me know.

The thing to watch for me right now is if the predicted food shortages occur and how that will impact the resolve to stick with sanctions if it starts causing turmoil in other regions, particularly the ME which relies heavily on imports from both Ukraine and Russia.

[opendoor]

Gas prices certainly haven't doubled in Canada, as they were pretty high even before the war started. The Canadian average was ~$1.55 right before the invasion and now it's ~$2.10, so an increase of about 35%. That's high, but prices normally go up by 10-25% in that time period every year. The problem was they started high after going up by ~40% in 2021.

And a lot of the economic blow back is because of the war itself, not just the sanctions. Sanctions aren't really what's driving wheat prices upwards; it's more the fact that about 10% of the world's exports come from Ukraine and their current stocks are difficult to move. And this year's production will obviously be affected when some of the most fertile land in the world is in an ongoing war zone and looks like this:



None of the countries that heavily rely on Russian wheat (Turkey, Egypt, Iran, etc.) are part of the sanctions, so removing them wouldn't change a whole lot for grain supplies. And Russia is expecting to export a fairly normal amount of wheat this year.

[timun]

Originally Posted by Itse

While I love that movie, it's incredibly historically inaccurate. (In a smart way.)

I choose to believe that on the subject of Lavrentiy Beria, Marshal Zhukov told Khrushchev "That ####er thinks he can take on the Red Army? I ####ed Germany: I think I can take a flesh lump in a ####ing waistcoat."