Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[puckedoff]

When the tip option comes up at Subway, I won't even be mad this time.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

You know you have residual PTSD when you read that and wonder when the bottom of the basket is going to fall out again.

No doubt it will come, so how we make use of the windfall we receive over the next year will be extremely important.

Kenney bucks incoming.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

No doubt it will come, so how we make use of the windfall we receive over the next year will be extremely important.

Kenney bucks incoming.

Sounds like we need to up the funding for the energy war room, clearly a success, we need to keep this going, so that a rainy day fund that we wont build wont be required.

[Azure]

What are you seeing guys? Lots of stories flying around that the feds are reaching out to different companies who have some projects in the works to see how they can be fast tracked.

If we are cutting Russian imports, that is a lot of oil & gas that needs to be replaced.

[Bunk]

Originally Posted by Azure

What are you seeing guys? Lots of stories flying around that the feds are reaching out to different companies who have some projects in the works to see how they can be fast tracked.

If we are cutting Russian imports, that is a lot of oil & gas that needs to be replaced.

How much? I see charts flying around twitter it is next to nothing. I don't know what to believe.

[burn_this_city]

Can't really fast track anything with supply issues. Most projects are 24-36 months depending on size for a straightforward debottleneck. Complicated equipment used to be 40-52 week delivery we now see 60 weeks. We also lack man-power on the technical side of things with 7 years of wave after wave of layoffs.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Can't really fast track anything with supply issues. Most projects are 24-36 months depending on size for a straightforward debottleneck. Complicated equipment used to be 40-52 week delivery we now see 60 weeks. We also lack man-power on the technical side of things with 7 years of wave after wave of layoffs.

Lead times on materials and equipment is so much longer now. We are struggling to get alloys like 316SS and a lot of our suppliers have doubled or tripled their lead times for almost all equipment including stuff like PLC hardware, temp. controllers, etc.

[FormerPresJamesTaylor]

This is a wild day

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Bunk

How much? I see charts flying around twitter it is next to nothing. I don't know what to believe.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...101%2C20191201


So in 2019 it was under $1 billion. Last year it was ~$280 million. Our total trade deficit looks to vary quite a bit, but the past few years around 0.5-1.5 billion per year.


https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...019005-eng.htm

[Leeman4Gilmour]

Originally Posted by Bunk

How much? I see charts flying around twitter it is next to nothing. I don't know what to believe.

You'd think it would be easier to get a firm number especially after today's announcement. From what I can discern, around 20,000 barrels a day. And it seems to be mostly refined products.

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Can't really fast track anything with supply issues. Most projects are 24-36 months depending on size for a straightforward debottleneck. Complicated equipment used to be 40-52 week delivery we now see 60 weeks. We also lack man-power on the technical side of things with 7 years of wave after wave of layoffs.

Yeah I've heard several anecdotal reports of companies having problems staffing up. I imagine a lot of experienced people left the industry over the last decade, so there is a vacuum in terms of knowledge and experience in some of the more hands-on areas. Offer enough money and people will come back...but that does take time...and money. In the meantime, while new recruits get up to speed, we probably should expect less efficiency, and a higher chance of error.

[Tron_fdc]

Wouldn't Keystone be the quickest and easiest to bring online?

Political red tape notwithstanding, of course.

[Azure]

Yeah, I'm wondering where we are at with projects that can move quicker & capacity increases on stuff already producing.

Rail is going to get a lot busier very fast.

[Tron_fdc]

If USA bans Russian oil, USA would need what, 500 000bpd to replace it?

They would need more oil to feed their refineries, we get tidewater access, and of course the USA increases exports to Eastern Canada because we can't seem to get anything built past Quebec. Win win all around?

I'm a production guy so I don't really understand the infrastructure but is that semi accurate?

[Azure]

US reserves are around 5 years worth of usage?

Can't imagine that the ban happens without across the board approvals on numerous projects. Keystone seems to be the most likely one right now to get oil to refineries fast, no?

Rail would need to carry the load for a while though.

I would what kind of emergency approval they could give to get things moving faster.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by Tron_fdc

Wouldn't Keystone be the quickest and easiest to bring online?

Political red tape notwithstanding, of course.

Wouldn't Energy East be even faster? Doesn't it run to Montreal?

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

Wouldn't Energy East be even faster? Doesn't it run to Montreal?

I think he meant based on ability to build them. Keystone XL already uses shared segments, and had a much shorter and less challenging route. TC Energy also got rid of all the plans for EE, I suspect they still have a lot of what they did for KXL, and permitting would come quicker. EE would be a quagmire.

[Ashartus]

Originally Posted by Table 5

Yeah I've heard several anecdotal reports of companies having problems staffing up. I imagine a lot of experienced people left the industry over the last decade, so there is a vacuum in terms of knowledge and experience in some of the more hands-on areas. Offer enough money and people will come back...but that does take time...and money. In the meantime, while new recruits get up to speed, we probably should expect less efficiency, and a higher chance of error.

It's not just the people who left the industry, but the people who never started. In my field people with 5-7 years of experience are really key - experienced enough to work relatively independently. But no one was hiring many new grads 2015-2017, so now there aren't very many people at that experience level.

[SeeGeeWhy]

I left O&G in 2013 after about a decade of experience. Don’t love what I do now at all but I can’t imagine being recruited back, either. The culture is not a fit for an ADHD person.

[Geraldsh]

According to the news tonight, we’re sanctioning Russian crude but not the refined oil which is what we actually buy. Kind of an empty gesture, smells Trudeau-ish.