I get it, of course rookies and injuries can swing the results. My point is what does the model bring that provides any insight into the upcoming year? I think nothing, if any rando (like me) could guess his way into a similar prediction.
Fair enough. Like you, I don't find them particularly interesting.
Not saying that it’s an outright fair comparison, but I think expectations for Wolf may be a tad high/premature at this point.
He’s a young guy. Let’s not bury him if he comes out and only puts up a .900 save % this coming season. If he has a sophomore slump, which would probably be more in line with the norm, we shouldn’t panic.
Goalies, and goalie development, are unpredictable.
Wolf is no Steve Mason. He is the something special Pierre Maguire was talking about.
Anyways we play in the crappiest division in the league. We will get way more than 72 points.
__________________ Peter12 "I'm no Trump fan but he is smarter than most if not everyone in this thread. ”
Not saying that it’s an outright fair comparison, but I think expectations for Wolf may be a tad high/premature at this point.
He’s a young guy. Let’s not bury him if he comes out and only puts up a .900 save % this coming season. If he has a sophomore slump, which would probably be more in line with the norm, we shouldn’t panic.
Goalies, and goalie development, are unpredictable.
There's a decent probability that he takes a bit of a step back, especially if the d-core struggles, which is quite likely to happen (eventually losing Andersson; Bahl might not play as well; Parekh has a lot to learn; one of the core gets injured; younger guys don't step up).
But Steve Mason isn't a good comparison, as the guy lost confidence after his rookie year and couldn't get out of his head or deal with the pressures that the team put on him after he dragged the franchise into their first ever post season appearance.
Wolf has had to beat the mental side of the game since he was a kid with his size and the lack of confidence hockey people have had in him. It's now a massive strength.
I'm not disagreeing with your premise that his numbers may not be as good, and the team probably will take a step back, but he's not Steve Mason.
The Quest stands upon the edge of a knife. Stray but a little, and it will fail, to the ruin of all. Yet hope remains while the Company is true. Go Flames Go!
There's a decent probability that he takes a bit of a step back, especially if the d-core struggles, which is quite likely to happen (eventually losing Andersson; Bahl might not play as well; Parekh has a lot to learn; one of the core gets injured; younger guys don't step up).
But Steve Mason isn't a good comparison, as the guy lost confidence after his rookie year and couldn't get out of his head or deal with the pressures that the team put on him after he dragged the franchise into their first ever post season appearance.
Wolf has had to beat the mental side of the game since he was a kid with his size and the lack of confidence hockey people have had in him. It's now a massive strength.
I'm not disagreeing with your premise that his numbers may not be as good, and the team probably will take a step back, but he's not Steve Mason.
Every level Wolf has played at he has dominated. I can’t see a guy like that having a major drop off
His model has an average error rate of 10.4 points, so 83 would would fit within the average accuracy of his model.
If you predicted that every single team would get 95 points, the average error rate would be pretty close to 10.4 points. The model is next to useless.
Last edited by Macindoc; 08-28-2025 at 05:03 PM.
The Following User Says Thank You to Macindoc For This Useful Post:
Yeah I don’t know where this “average error rate” is coming from as I haven’t looked at this guys stuff. But if he’s saying he’s applied his model to previous seasons and ON AVERAGE his model predicts the point total within 10.4 points in either direction, then I’m not sure he should even be putting it out there. I could create a model with one single input; previous year point totals; and it will be more accurate. Assuming that’s an input for him (maybe it isn’t, which could be part of the problem), the rest of his data is actually hurting his accuracy.
I’ll just give it a guess of 87 points, with a lot of OTLs because we lack that game breaking forward for 3v3 hockey. Something like 37-32-13. It will be the reason we miss the playoffs again.
I expect fewer OTLs as Parekh will bring some extra offense with room to create
If you predicted that every single team would get 95 points, the average error rate would be pretty close to 10.4 points. The model is next to useless.
11.97 actually. Which seems close but isn’t.
I don’t think it’s meant to be useful beyond entertainment/something to talk about. It is interesting that it’s the least inaccurate model. And I think he uses the term “least inaccurate” as opposed to “most accurate” because… you know… nobody can actually predict NHL standings before the season starts with anything resembling good accuracy.
Yeah I don’t know where this “average error rate” is coming from as I haven’t looked at this guys stuff. But if he’s saying he’s applied his model to previous seasons and ON AVERAGE his model predicts the point total within 10.4 points in either direction, then I’m not sure he should even be putting it out there. I could create a model with one single input; previous year point totals; and it will be more accurate. Assuming that’s an input for him (maybe it isn’t, which could be part of the problem), the rest of his data is actually hurting his accuracy.
Wrong.
If you tried that last year, your error rate would have been 12.3.
I mean, Dustin Wolf aside, it's still more than easy to picture this roster as bottom-3 talent wise.
Again, this is what we said last summer too.
There are a number of variables that will work against a big tank season:
Will Wolf keep doing what he does? I believe so.
Will Coronato match or beat last season's stats? I think so if he is on a scoring line instead of a Backlund line.
Will Zary break out? I think so, as long as he stays healthy
Will Parekh dominate? No, that's crazy to assume. But I hope he has a great entry into the league and gets eased into bigger and bigger assignments.
Will Huberdeau continue to build his new form? I think he has finally found his stride in Calgary
If Farabee and Sharangovich return to form and put in 20+ that would be huge for the team moving up the standings
On the other hand, what might work for the tank?
Trading Andersson will be a big blow to the D group. It will force Weegar into a shutdown role and then the rest of the D group will need to pick up the extra minutes. (Also, it will be super interesting to see what comes back in the trade when it happens.)
Kadri's age might slow him down a step but he doesn't seem like the kind of guy to go quietly into the night. I expect in his mind he is going to break his own personal goal record again.
Backlund's age could also be a factor but even if he loses a step there is a Frost waiting in the wings to start taking on Backlund's role.
Losing Vladar will likely cost us games unless Prosvetov really surprises us all.
There will be lots of stories within the bigger tale of this season and it will be certainly interesting to watch but not easy to predict the outcome with so many wildcards.
__________________
The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to Wolven For This Useful Post:
I don’t think it’s meant to be useful beyond entertainment/something to talk about. It is interesting that it’s the least inaccurate model. And I think he uses the term “least inaccurate” as opposed to “most accurate” because… you know… nobody can actually predict NHL standings before the season starts with anything resembling good accuracy.
Well, I mean, I just pulled a random number out of the air without even calculating the average points total per team last year. If you calculated the average points per team from last season, then picked a number midway between the league average and each team's individual points last season, you would probably have a more accurate model. Even better would be if you used the previous season and added half of the difference between the points gained by a team last season and the points they gained the previous season to take trends into account. And that's without doing any analysis.
One thing we k ow about the Flames over the last 10+ years is they have not been able to string together any semblance of consistency year to year.
2014- bottom 4
2015- WC team
2016 - bottom 5
2017- WC team
2018- playoff miss
2019- 2nd overall in the league
2020- bubble and in
2021- bubble and out
2022- top 5 in the league
2023- 17th place
2024- bottom 10
2025- 17th place
This year I think they are likely to finish near the bottom. Perhaps it is like the early 20’s where they are bubble in? I feel like their only chances to be better are if Wolf is a Vezina finalist and Parekh is in the calder race.
To add to your post Wolven, I think Frost will be interesting to watch as well. Just under a 0.5 ppg player over 310 games in the NHL. On one hand, that's enough NHL experience to suggest that level of production is just who he is. Which is fine. On the other hand, he's still on the youngish side and when I watch him, he looks like he has much more to give offensively.
The Following User Says Thank You to Leeman4Gilmour For This Useful Post:
One thing we k ow about the Flames over the last 10+ years is they have not been able to string together any semblance of consistency year to year.
2014- bottom 4
2015- WC team
2016 - bottom 5
2017- WC team
2018- playoff miss
2019- 2nd overall in the league
2020- bubble and in
2021- bubble and out
2022- top 5 in the league
2023- 17th place
2024- bottom 10
2025- 17th place
This year I think they are likely to finish near the bottom. Perhaps it is like the early 20’s where they are bubble in? I feel like their only chances to be better are if Wolf is a Vezina finalist and Parekh is in the calder race.
To be fair, in 2025 they actually finished in 15th place with more points than 2 playoff teams (Devils and Canadiens).
Kadri's age might slow him down a step but he doesn't seem like the kind of guy to go quietly into the night. I expect in his mind he is going to break his own personal goal record again.
Excellent post overall, and on the Kadri point, i'd just like to add that he seems genuinely angry that he was passed over for the Olympic camp. This is his last shot at representing Canada, and i can see him extra motivated to play himself on to that team. Wouldn't surprise me if Kadri has a crazy start to the season, as he is definitely the type of guy that excels with an extra chip on his shoulder.
There are a number of variables that will work against a big tank season:
Will Wolf keep doing what he does? I believe so.
Will Coronato match or beat last season's stats? I think so if he is on a scoring line instead of a Backlund line.
Will Zary break out? I think so, as long as he stays healthy
Will Parekh dominate? No, that's crazy to assume. But I hope he has a great entry into the league and gets eased into bigger and bigger assignments.
Will Huberdeau continue to build his new form? I think he has finally found his stride in Calgary
If Farabee and Sharangovich return to form and put in 20+ that would be huge for the team moving up the standings
On the other hand, what might work for the tank?
Trading Andersson will be a big blow to the D group. It will force Weegar into a shutdown role and then the rest of the D group will need to pick up the extra minutes. (Also, it will be super interesting to see what comes back in the trade when it happens.)
Kadri's age might slow him down a step but he doesn't seem like the kind of guy to go quietly into the night. I expect in his mind he is going to break his own personal goal record again.
Backlund's age could also be a factor but even if he loses a step there is a Frost waiting in the wings to start taking on Backlund's role.
Losing Vladar will likely cost us games unless Prosvetov really surprises us all.
There will be lots of stories within the bigger tale of this season and it will be certainly interesting to watch but not easy to predict the outcome with so many wildcards.
Guess that’s why you play the games. Life isn’t just a spreadsheet
One thing we k ow about the Flames over the last 10+ years is they have not been able to string together any semblance of consistency year to year.
2014- bottom 4
2015- WC team
2016 - bottom 5
2017- WC team
2018- playoff miss
2019- 2nd overall in the league
2020- bubble and in
2021- bubble and out
2022- top 5 in the league
2023- 17th place
2024- bottom 10
2025- 17th place
This year I think they are likely to finish near the bottom. Perhaps it is like the early 20’s where they are bubble in? I feel like their only chances to be better are if Wolf is a Vezina finalist and Parekh is in the calder race.
