Toronto Blue Jays - Offseason Thread

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by cross16

What I mean is there is no guarantee and I don't think spending more money guarantees you anything, espeically in this FA market that isn't all that good. I"m not seeing players out there that Jays could get that suddenly would make them a legit WS contender.

Well that's a different response than your last one.

Of course there's no guarantee's and you may be right that there's not really any players that would suddenly make them a WS contender. But before you said spending money couldn't make them more of a contender than they already are.

[calculoso]

Originally Posted by Cappy

How does the AAA phase work, is it the same as the MLB (i.e. players who have reached a certain time limit since draft that hasn't reached AAA?)

I don't quite get it all, but here's a link

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...skbarule5.html
"There are Triple-A and Double-A segments of the Rule 5 draft, with price tags of $12,000 and $4,000 respectively. Minor league players not protected on the reserve lists at the Double-A and Class A levels are subject to selection, but almost no future big leaguers emerge from this process. It's basically a tool for major league teams to fill out affiliates rather than obtain talent."

[jayswin]

Question, cappy: If you believe everything you do than do you also believe we should be rebuilding at this point and maximizing returns on Donaldson, Tulo etc? It seems pretty silly to semi-go for it but realistically not be in it just to keep buts in the seats and eyeballs on TV.

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by jayswin

Question, cappy: If you believe everything you do than do you also believe we should be rebuilding at this point and maximizing returns on Donaldson, Tulo etc? It seems pretty silly to semi-go for it but realistically not be in it just to keep buts in the seats and eyeballs on TV.

I'm unsure exactly what point i made that you are referring to, but can somewhat answer that question, regardless.

I try not to look at professional sports decisions in the vacuum of what is best for the team / winning. I try to look at the decisions made in the context of the way a GM would make a decision. If it's not the best decision, can I atleast rationalize it. (example, the trade deadline this year, I felt like they should've made a bigger splash, but given the org. depth, understood why we didn't)

For all the faults of ownership in Toronto (and there are many), we are generally stuck with an internal cap (one that has risen immensely since I have been an everyday fan under J.P).

We also have to look at the fans of the BJ's in general. The team has suffered something over the past 20 years, but winning (or competitiveness) has increased viewership, bottom line, and attendance. But make no mistake, many of these fans arent "hardcore" and will leave as soon as the team is no longer the hot ticket in town.

Obviously the goal of any team is to win the WS, and if the team truly believes they won't win, then (like the White Sox) you maximize value, but when was the last time a team made it to the ALCS two years in a row and blew up a team notwithstanding budget constraints. (plus, with big stars like Donaldson/Sale/Harper/Trout/Halladay etc., you will never get their maximum value in a trade. The other side will always be getting the better deal, unless all prospects play as projected)

But that comes to the question of whether or not i think we could win it next year. and honestly, even with the team we have now, and filling those holes as best in FA, i still think we have a shot. The playoffs are a crap shoot based so much on luck, it doesn't take much for a team to have a good/bad stretch that is not indicative of their overall record.

With our pitching, and still having a solid lineup (not the juggernaut we had before but still good), there is certainly a good chance we make the playoffs next year.

In terms of individual moves that have happened/ or could happen this year, I would love to have Fowler, and EE. I think the Jays were probably premature on getting morales so early judging by the deflated market for other players now, but hindsight. With Fowler, just look at whats happened to WSH the last two years, they keep getting skunked on free agents which happens, you can't force a player to come here.

I personally think the Jays should be using whatever prospect capital they have left to go for it in the next 1-2 years. That means trading for controllable players that you could later trade for some return when the core starts to wind down. I think you go for it, but nothing is guaranteed: you could lose in the ALDS in 5 games off some fluke homerun by a backup catcher; or worse, you could back yourself into years of mediocrity and financial ruin like Arizona and San Diego, finding ways to trade high-price "talent" for anything with no prospects and another 5 years of futility. EDIT: how can I forget the Blue Jays most famous example: R.A. Dickey for those who shall not be named


Was that what you were looking for, or was your question based on my opinion on some players/moves? I can answer that if need be.

[jayswin]

That was more than I was looking for! Excellent breakdown of your view of the team and where you'd like to go. I guess I'm more of an all or nothing fan (same way as an NHL fan), as I don't really believe in meddling with the faint hope that things go right.

I guess that's just how I'm starting to see this current line-up (barring a major trade/signing of course), a line-up that doesn't have much chance at playoffs but is being molded into a win now line-up on a tight budget (yes, I know we're tight in part due to players that are already taking up a lot of space) and I'm not a fan.

I guess that's where we're seeing it differently, you still see a playoff contender where as I don't anymore. I think the loss of both Bautista and Edwin (even if some of that loss is due to how they'd actually perform next season even if we kept them (see: Bautista) is too much to just patch up with some cheap options and say "well this was a second round team last year, so we can't just tear it down". I think losing Edwin and Bautista is kind of semi tearing it down if you don't replace them with anything big.

[jayswin]

We'll have solid pitching IF everyone continues where they left off last season AND there's no injuries (which isn't very common) again.

Again, I realize this could be slightly premature as we could make a big splash and get some hitting back, but as it stands we no longer have a threatening offense and with the rumored budget it looks like we'll have to spend most of it shoring up the bullpen.

So we could very well be in a position of having a decent bullpen, a strong starting rotation (but requiring an injury free season and continuation of strong seasons from some) and a fairly unthreatening offense.

[Cappy]

I assume we get one of Bautista and Fowler. Those are the two i would want out of the RF players they have talked about. Yeah Bautista in the field isnt ideal but, RF is where you stick your crap fielders.

I thought i heard somewhere that, considering the budget, if the Jays take a hard run at Fowler (18+ per year), they are effectively at budget, meaning we have replaced JB for Fowler, which could potentially be the same WAR values next season. (although i question that because JB would probably be a 1yr deal for similar value)

One of the big issues I had with the lineup last year was the stars and scrubs makeup. Basically, stars from 2-5, then Martin, Smoak/Saunders/Upton/Carrera/Goins etc. That part of the lineup was generally a black hole near the end of the season and you were happy if one was able to leg out a single. So, given the budget constraints, I would appreciate a little more balance from 1-9 and I dont think it's hard to imagine Morales/Pearce out produces Edwin/Smoak.

In another spot, maybe Brandon Moss and generic LF #1 (Melky? I can't think of anyone there) is better than Fowler/Bautista and Upton, with less cost.

The Jays are in a tough spot. They are straddling their own cap, but have very little pieces to trade to get cheap value.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by jayswin

I think losing Edwin and Bautista is kind of semi tearing it down if you don't replace them with anything big.

See the way I see it is that baseball is not a star driven sport. The best regular hitter in the line-up will have roughly the same number of plate appearances as the worst regular hitter in the line-up. So replacing a good player with a lesser (but still above replacement level) player means that your team as a whole is only a little worse off (because no matter how good a player you are you're still only a small % of the overall team performance share... unless you're Mike Trout and the Angels). Now... eventually that all adds up but the Jays aren't at the point where it adds up and probably won't be until Donaldson leaves (at which point age will start gotting the better of Martin & Tulo). The Jays will have a major reckoning fairly soon... but not this year.

That's not to say that I wouldn't want something/one "big"... but the difference between something big (If you're using Jose and Edwin's performance last year as a barometer for big) and something average is relatively small.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Cappy

Yeah Bautista in the field isnt ideal but, RF is where you stick your crap fielders.

LF actually. Or at least it should be where you stick your 3rd worst fielder (DH & 1B being where you put the worst and 2nd worst)

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by Parallex

LF actually. Or at least it should be where you stick your 3rd worst fielder (DH & 1B being where you put the worst and 2nd worst)

I don't think so.

I know you want a guy with an arm in Right because of the throw to third, but LF gets more action given the dominance of right handed batting

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Cappy

I don't think so.

I know you want a guy with an arm in Right because of the throw to first, but I'm LF gets more action given the dominance of right handed batting?

You want with an arm in right because of the throw to 3rd (although I do get a kick out of the 9-1 putout). LF->3B is a much shorter throw so you want the big arm in RF to help suppress guys going 1st to 3rd and legging out triples.

The dominance of right handed batting is why you put the better fielder in right. Yes more action goes to LF because of the pull but the pull is going to result in a lot of homeruns (nothing the fielder can do about those) and routine flyballs (which don't require a lot of skill to field)... contact from a RHB that is hit to rightfield is going to be contact that is more difficult to manage. LF = quantity of fielding, RF = quality of fielding

[Cappy]

You want with an arm in right because of the throw to 3rd (although I do get a kick out of the 9-1 putout). LF->3B is a much shorter throw so you want the big arm in RF to help suppress guys going 1st to 3rd and legging out triples.

The dominance of right handed batting is why you put the better fielder in right. Yes more action goes to LF because of the pull but the pull is going to result in a lot of homeruns (nothing the fielder can do about those) and routine flyballs (which don't require a lot of skill to field)... contact from a RHB that is hit to rightfield is going to be contact that is more difficult to manage. LF = quantity of fielding, RF = quality of fielding

RF to first was obviously a typo.

Do you have any sources for this, just asking if there are any ball players/managers that agree with that assessment.

You generally see it the opposite based on history, with low range guys like Adam Dunn, Matt Kemp, aging CarGo and Beltran all moving to right with their low range.

Throughout the NL there are god hitters/crappy fielders that are thrown into right because there is no DH.

Meanwhile, range guys are occupying LF more than right.

[REDVAN]

Originally Posted by Parallex

You want with an arm in right because of the throw to 3rd (although I do get a kick out of the 9-1 putout). LF->3B is a much shorter throw so you want the big arm in RF to help suppress guys going 1st to 3rd and legging out triples.

The dominance of right handed batting is why you put the better fielder in right. Yes more action goes to LF because of the pull but the pull is going to result in a lot of homeruns (nothing the fielder can do about those) and routine flyballs (which don't require a lot of skill to field)... contact from a RHB that is hit to rightfield is going to be contact that is more difficult to manage. LF = quantity of fielding, RF = quality of fielding

Not sure whose point I'm making here, but either way you don't want Bautista in those positions!

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Cappy

Do you have any sources for this, just asking if there are any ball players/managers that agree with that assessment.

It's fairly conventional thinking I believe. Generally agreed with by sabermetricians that I've seen.

http://www.coachdeck.com/articles/ho...e-the-pros.asp

Additionally because more balls are hit to LF than RF you're more likely to have an alignment where the CF shifts towards the gap in left centerfield. That means more ground to be covered by the right fielder (thus you want your 2nd best OF to your RF).

I mean it's not like the difference between 1B and SS... we're talking more a slight difference then a gapping one.

[transplant99]

Jays looking at Charlie Blackmon but the ask is apparently Stroman.

[Cappy]

yeah found some other comments.

http://www.sbnation.com/2011/4/11/21...fielder-belong

Terry Collins likes to put his 2nd best in LF, but it appears to be somewhat unorthodox among some.

Either way, JB defence sucks. He seems to cost the team around -1 dWAR. But, if he hits closer to his average of 3-4 oWAR, then sticking him in the field (LF or RF) is fine with me.

Interesting from your article Parallex, the ideal of having a lefty in RF. Would explain some of those power hitters playing RF (Dunn, Bruce, Granderson, CarGo, etc.)

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Jays looking at Charlie Blackmon but the ask is apparently Stroman.

Apparently Atkins said there is a lot of talk about trades, but people are wanting players from the roster (like Stro) because our farm sucks balls. I doubt we trade anyone off the starting 5/9

[Keselke]

The old paradigm will return this season in the AL East,

Yankees/Red Sox.......Everyone else




Jays chance to win was the last two seasons

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Cappy

the ideal of having a lefty in RF. Would explain some of those power hitters playing RF (Dunn, Bruce, Granderson, CarGo, etc.)

Yeah, that was a new on on me to. Makes some sense... although really I don't think it's so valuable that you want to give up the range that a lot of these managers give up (although in the NL they have less choice).

[Jason14h]

Yankees/Red Sox.......Everyone else

Why do you expect the Yankees to be any good based on their current lineup?

Yankees are waiting until next offseason to go after players.