With O Reilly i can't see flames finishing in the bottom 5.
My only concern is if the flames waited to long to do this? If done 2 weeks ago could have had a couple of more wins against easy teams. Flames going into a very hard part of the schedule followed by 9 games in April on the road.
The good part is that after tonights game he only misses the canucks game. He should be eligible for the Wednesday game against the sharks.
I believe Feaster waited till now is that it over laps into next years trade deadline..So basically the Avs are stuck with him for 2 years if they sign him..I might be wrong but that's what I'm thinking.
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Why do people think COL would match now? They could have easily signed him to this deal months and months ago. And no organization is so enamoured with one player so much that they say oh yeah, we still like you but we are just gonna wait and see if anyone offer sheets you. COL does not match. Actually, I think COL is the dummy here not actually pulling the trigger on anything with O'Reilly and let it get to this point. Like some media think, the relatioship between COL and O'reilly is so far gone that they simply cannot match, and maybe that is what Feaster is banking on.
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also even if the pick is in the lottery, with the new system, murphy's law dictates that if the Avs don't match and keep the 1st that the 1st is winning the lottery
A virtual statistical impossibility should never prevent a move like this.
I've been a huge advocate of O'Reilly on these boards and would have loved to have this happen at the start of the season.
I am, however, disappointed it took this long. O'Reilly fills a need that was completely transparent walking into this season, with or without Backlund. I feel confident that if O'Reilly was with the Flames (which still is only a possibility) at the start of the season, while still a border playoff team, they would be on the other side of it at this junction. Instead they're on the outside looking in and could still end up with a very high 1st round pick.
A mid 10-20 pick, even in this deep draft, I do that everyday for O'Reilly. Giving up the chance of drafting Mackinnon, Jones, Drouin, or Barkov? Whole different story.
Still could you imagine going into a game with 3 NHL centers? O'Reilly, Backlund and Stajan, that has to be some sort of NHL record.
this is why I'm glad that Tamby quickly locked up the RFAs, can't risk them for the offersheet.
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I would take Sequin 10 time out of 10 before I took Hall, I said it on draft day that drafting Hallover the TS was possibly one of the dumbest moves that Lowe made
Maybe I am missing something, but the way it would work is like this:
1) The Flames have to offer him 6.5 million dollars to retain his services
2) O`Reilly can either sign for 6.5 million or hold out
3) If he holds out the Flames can trade him to a team willing to sign him for 6.5 million dollars a year
4) The Flames need to find a team willing to trade assets for a 6.5 million dollar O`Reilly
As for why O`Reilly would not sign for less than 6.5 million dollars there are a number of reasons:
1) He is guaranteed to make 6.5 million dollars a year on one year contracts for the next two years after this contract expires or he becomes a UFA able to sign anywhere;
2) One would assume that whatever offer lower than 6.5 million that the Flames table would likely be available if he went UFA. There is very low risk for him to enter UFA;
3) If he becomes a UFA he may sign for higher than what the Flames offered him prior to becoming a UFA
Why would he sign for less than he is guaranteed to get as a QO unless he is just a good guy?
Security of a multi-year deal would probably be the only reason.
also even if the pick is in the lottery, with the new system, murphy's law dictates that if the Avs don't match and keep the 1st that the 1st is winning the lottery
Good. Keeps the Oilers from getting it.
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Pierre LeBrun @Real_ESPNLeBrun
Says a rival Western Conference team exec: ``Avs will match for sure.'' Well, we shall see ...
Well then good on Feaster for forcing Sherman's hand. I just get the feeling that if the Avs were prepared to pay $5 million for O'Reilly they would have done so already. In fact, the reports I've been reading have been pretty unanimous in saying that's exactly what the Avs don't want to do.
Either they let a very good young player go to a division rival or they keep a disgruntled O'Reilly who held out on them for more money than the Avs were prepared to offer. Win/win.
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Maybe I am missing something, but the way it would work is like this:
1) The Flames have to offer him 6.5 million dollars to retain his services
2) O`Reilly can either sign for 6.5 million or hold out
3) If he holds out the Flames can trade him to a team willing to sign him for 6.5 million dollars a year
4) The Flames need to find a team willing to trade assets for a 6.5 million dollar O`Reilly
As for why O`Reilly would not sign for less than 6.5 million dollars there are a number of reasons:
1) He is guaranteed to make 6.5 million dollars a year on one year contracts for the next two years after this contract expires or he becomes a UFA able to sign anywhere;
2) One would assume that whatever offer lower than 6.5 million that the Flames table would likely be available if he went UFA. There is very low risk for him to enter UFA;
3) If he becomes a UFA he may sign for higher than what the Flames offered him prior to becoming a UFA
Why would he sign for less than he is guaranteed to get as a QO unless he is just a good guy?
What you are saying doesn't make sense.
Again. ROR KNOWS HE WON'T GET $6.5M FROM ANYONE RIGHT NOW.
So if he were to hold out in 2 years, it will NOT be because he wants $6.5M (again, unless he rips it up next season). That's ridiculous. He won't go to UFA and get a $6.5M if he maintains his current play.
If he were to hold out, it's because he wants to go to a new team, not a team that will pay him $6.5M. He's not stupid. He's not going to get $6.5M from this new team. He'd likely get a long term deal at around $5M. The Flames can trade him to a team that will be able to sign him, getting a big return.
The Flames have so many more options than what you've listed.
If ROR is not qualified by July 1, 2014, yes, he will become a UFA.
But the Flames can RE-SIGN him to any kind of contract they want want, starting July 1, 2013. The Flames will NOT be forced to pay him $6.5M.
Would would he sign here? Maybe because he learns to like the team, knows he'll be given every opportunity on the top line? We already know he chose the Flames over the Canucks. Why wouldn't he do it again?
He won't realistically be asking for $6.5M in 2 years unless he comes in and puts up 70 points next season. Personally, I'd love if he did that.
And well, if he won't sign to reasonable terms, the Flames can trade him to a team he wants to sign with, and the Flames will get a huge return.
This is a brilliant move by Feaster.
I have no issues giving up a 1st and a 3rd for him. What really worries me is the high QO offer we'll need to give him once this contract expires. True - we don't HAVE to qualify him...but then he'd be an UFA and we lose him in just 1.5 years (as well as our draft picks).
Why would he sign for a much more reasonable amount (around $4-$5M per year) just because he likes it here? He's already proven that he's all about the money and is willing to hold out to get as much as possible. In 1.5 years, he holds all the power as he knows he can either accept the QO at a ridiculous amount or become a UFA and cash in (just not to the degree of +$6.5M) since he'll be one of the most desirable free agents on the market.
As for if he refuses to sign, you'll have to trade him before next year's trade deadline if you want any sort of return. No one will give up much to get his rights and overpay him...especially if they know Calgary won't match.
The only way this works out is if he performs well enough that he's worth close to $6.5M in 2 years time so we can simply qualify him (or work out a long-term deal on similar terms that he'd be willing to accept).
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