But still, the US isn't sending things that would be relatively easy to send like guided artillery rounds (Canada sent a few, but the US refused to), which would definitely have an impact. And just today, Biden confirmed that they're not sending longer-rage rockets, so Ukraine will only be getting shorter-range ammo:
So there are clearly pretty hard limits on what they're willing to send. I agree with you that their general goal is to bleed Russia and have them waste their resources, but I think they're content to send as little as possible to achieve that. And they're very cognizant of the possibilities of both escalation and depleting their own stocks.
One thing to consider is that Russia is the direct or indirect supplier of weapons to the majority of the USA's enemies. If Russia is depleting their own stockpiles, that means places like Iran and North Korea are getting fewer supplies.
Three months in, and things are not dire at all in Moscow. Our company had some layoffs but is hiring in certain departments. Shops are full. Street crime still barely exist. Dollar is actually cheaper than it used to be. There are some occasional fires here and there, but it doesn't really affect mundane lives. Rumors of conscription, mobilization and such do exist but it's not happening and panic somewhat cooled off. We can't fly to the west but it only affects vacations. No flights and higher prices are the only tangible things that have changed this far. Also can't pay online to the western world, so we can't enroll our daughter to online USA school. I didn't try but I assume we can't buy games in Steam and movies on porn hubs. Nonetheless if sanctions were supposed to send Russia down the spiral of death it definitely hasn't happened yet.
That is unfortunate.
I had hoped that this pressure would cause Russia to withdraw from Ukraine. Unfortunately it looks like more lives will be lost.
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Captain James P. DeCOSTE, CD, 18 Sep 1993
I had hoped that this pressure would cause Russia to withdraw from Ukraine. Unfortunately it looks like more lives will be lost.
Sanctions are a long-term strategy. It typically takes at least six months for the effects to start to hurt the target. And keep in mind half the world (China, India, the Middle East, much of Africa, etc) is still trading with Russia.
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Originally Posted by fotze
If this day gets you riled up, you obviously aren't numb to the disappointment yet to be a real fan.
The US has finally confirmed that they'll supply Ukraine with the M142 HIMARS. Unfortunately they're only starting with 4 of them, though I assume more will get sent later. And they're being provided only with the shorter range (70 km or so) rockets and on the condition that they not be used to target anything within Russia's borders.
The US seems to be pretty cognizant of wanting to avoid escalation. And I think it's a mistake to think that escalation only includes attacks on NATO countries or nuclear war. Even escalation to a wider mobilization of Russian forces could prove to be disastrous for Ukraine. Russia too, but I think the US would prefer a slower bleed out of Russian forces rather than escalation.
Sanctions are a long-term strategy. It typically takes at least six months for the effects to start to hurt the target. And keep in mind half the world (China, India, the Middle East, much of Africa, etc) is still trading with Russia.
But in six months, winter will be coming for Europe...
At what point does Putin step back and ask himself if the War in Ukraine is making Russia any better off now and in the future?
I still question the end goal here. Occupation doesn't make sense, and if it was utter destruction, they would have started with an air strike campaign before the invasion.
I fear as time goes on Western support for Ukraine will wane, and will leave the door open to Russian victories in E Ukraine.
At what point does Putin step back and ask himself if the War in Ukraine is making Russia any better off now and in the future?
I still question the end goal here. Occupation doesn't make sense, and if it was utter destruction, they would have started with an air strike campaign before the invasion.
I fear as time goes on Western support for Ukraine will wane, and will leave the door open to Russian victories in E Ukraine.
I think originally they wanted all of Ukraine either by actual full takeover or puppet government. but it all comes down to Oil/Gas.
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The US is now likely selling Ukraine some significantly better drones than they've had so far:
Quote:
The Biden administration plans to sell Ukraine four MQ-1C Gray Eagle drones that can be armed with Hellfire missiles for battlefield use against Russia, three people familiar with the situation said.
The sale of the General Atomics-made drones could still be blocked by Congress, the sources said, adding that there is also a risk of a last minute policy reversal that could scuttle the plan, which has been under review at the Pentagon for several weeks.
Ukraine has been using several types of smaller shorter range unmanned aerial systems against Russian forces that invaded the country in late February. They include the AeroVironment (AVAV.O) RQ-20 Puma AE, and the Turkish Bayraktar-TB2.
But the Gray Eagle represents a leap in technology because it can fly up to 30 or more hours depending on its mission and can gather huge amounts of data for intelligence purposes. Gray Eagles, the Army's version of the more widely known Predator drone, can also carry up to eight powerful Hellfire missiles.
Hopefully they can train the Ukrainian operators quickly. Though technically, unlike the existing drones they have, these are controllable from across the globe. Maybe some US drone pilots can "volunteer" for the task.
At what point does Putin step back and ask himself if the War in Ukraine is making Russia any better off now and in the future?
I still question the end goal here. Occupation doesn't make sense, and if it was utter destruction, they would have started with an air strike campaign before the invasion.
I fear as time goes on Western support for Ukraine will wane, and will leave the door open to Russian victories in E Ukraine.
I fear the same thing, I think you already see less on media unless you are actively searching for it. I think its part of Russias strategy that the west will lose interest and we will move on to the next thing we are outraged about and the sanctions will lessen and they will get the gains they want.
I fear the same thing, I think you already see less on media unless you are actively searching for it. I think its part of Russias strategy that the west will lose interest and we will move on to the next thing we are outraged about and the sanctions will lessen and they will get the gains they want.
I think the sanctions will stay. But its only a matter of time until the Rand Pauls and that ilk start yapping about why are we paying for a war in Ukraine.
Then it will start to become more of a common view of the right wing and then the far left will come aboard. It will unravel in time.
The weapons from the US will slow. The sanctions will stay though.
I think the sanctions will stay. But its only a matter of time until the Rand Pauls and that ilk start yapping about why are we paying for a war in Ukraine.
Then it will start to become more of a common view of the right wing and then the far left will come aboard. It will unravel in time.
The weapons from the US will slow. The sanctions will stay though.
Maybe... but this war is exceptionally good for the US. Bleeding Russia dry and decreasing their influence in other theatres. Finland and Sweden desperate to join NATO. Justification for the huge defence budget. Tons of Republican backers make huge profits off weapons manufacturing, so I think it's questionable that they'll oppose any of this in a serious manner.
I think the sanctions will stay. But its only a matter of time until the Rand Pauls and that ilk start yapping about why are we paying for a war in Ukraine.
Then it will start to become more of a common view of the right wing and then the far left will come aboard. It will unravel in time.
The weapons from the US will slow. The sanctions will stay though.
Maybe, but I don't see it. I mean, what's in it for the Paul Rands? I don't see it as a popular vote-driving cause, and the Russian oil/gas/banking sector that usually bankrolls pro-Russian causes is currently severely limited in it's ability to fund anything in the west, plus connections to them are currently political poison.
The US military-industrial complex on the other hand has a massive interest in US weapons exports.
Right now new stuff is getting added to the list constantly. Today it's Gray Eagle drones.
MOD and map updates. Past couple of days Russians continued heavy shelling and airstrikes in Kharkiv to keep Ukrainian offensive positions there mostly static. In the Donbas, Russians taken more than half of Sievierodonetsk at this point with heavy fighting in the city and Ukrainian defenders being partially forced across the Lysychansk bridge. Russian forces are attempting attack Lysychansk from south and west vectors so they don't have to cross the river, which we've seen them being absolutely horrid at doing in the past. The Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kherson has succeeded in recapturing Mykolaivka and Zaszilla, and are now threatening to disrupt Russian lines of communication.
Ukrainians are reporting Poland will now send them 60 of their state of the art Krab self-propelled artillery piece instead of the previously reported 18. If confirmed, Poland will now have sent 2/3s of their front line artillery pieces to Ukraine. UK and Germany are also set to deliver an undisclosed number of M270 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems variants of the HIMARS system the US DOD has now confirmed they are sending after Ukrainians "promised" not to use them on targets inside Russia proper. These are supposedly to reach Ukraine before months end but they won't be put into service until sometime in July earliest assuming crews area already being trained. https://kyivindependent.com/uncatego...led-howitzers/ https://twitter.com/user/status/1532042307058409472
In Russia, Putin unhappy with the progress of the offensive has now fired 5 generals. Seems like in the Russian/Soviet military there are only 3 career paths for generals: Killed in action, fired for incompetence, or purged/disappeared in peacetime. Apparently generals are also highly unhappy with Putin himself with some unconfirmed leaked calls from the generals criticizing Putin himself. This whole war and Russia's irrational decisions are being made worse by Putin wanting to cement his legacy. He is confirmed now to having been treated for cancer in April by US intelligence. The intelligence report also says that there was an assassination attempt on Putin in March https://www.newsweek.com/putin-fires...ntinue-1712053 https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-p...t-says-1710357
Last edited by FlameOn; 06-02-2022 at 07:10 AM.
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I think the sanctions will stay. But its only a matter of time until the Rand Pauls and that ilk start yapping about why are we paying for a war in Ukraine.
Then it will start to become more of a common view of the right wing and then the far left will come aboard. It will unravel in time.
The weapons from the US will slow. The sanctions will stay though.
The biggest pressure for a negotiated settlement in Ukraine won’t come from U.S. budget hawks. It will come from the unfolding global food catastrophe worsened by the war and sanctions.
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The coming food catastrophe
The widely accepted idea of a cost-of-living crisis does not begin to capture the gravity of what may lie ahead. António Guterres, the un secretary general, warned on May 18th that the coming months threaten “the spectre of a global food shortage” that could last for years. The high cost of staple foods has already raised the number of people who cannot be sure of getting enough to eat by 440m, to 1.6bn. Nearly 250m are on the brink of famine. If, as is likely, the war drags on and supplies from Russia and Ukraine are limited, hundreds of millions more people could fall into poverty. Political unrest will spread, children will be stunted and people will starve...
Russia and Ukraine supply 28% of globally traded wheat, 29% of the barley, 15% of the maize and 75% of the sunflower oil. Russia and Ukraine contribute about half the cereals imported by Lebanon and Tunisia; for Libya and Egypt the figure is two-thirds. Ukraine’s food exports provide the calories to feed 400m people. The war is disrupting these supplies because Ukraine has mined its waters to deter an assault, and Russia is blockading the port of Odessa.
Even before the invasion the World Food Programme had warned that 2022 would be a terrible year. China, the largest wheat producer, has said that, after rains delayed planting last year, this crop may be its worst-ever. Now, in addition to the extreme temperatures in India, the world’s second-largest producer, a lack of rain threatens to sap yields in other breadbaskets, from America’s wheat belt to the Beauce region of France. The Horn of Africa is being ravaged by its worst drought in four decades. Welcome to the era of climate change...
^^^ maybe - but that won't impact the US or Europe much. The US and Europe are used to ignoring suffering in Africa and in poor Asian countries.
Does also seem like you could shift around crops to deal with it as well. How much corn is grown in North America to use as ethanol - is there options to reduce that and grow wheat or other staple foods.
It's pretty horrendous for a lot of places though. There's multiple places on that list of countries/regions that are already suffering through horrible economic crises. This is all because Putin wants to decorate his tombstone before he dies.
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^^^ maybe - but that won't impact the US or Europe much. The US and Europe are used to ignoring suffering in Africa and in poor Asian countries.
Does also seem like you could shift around crops to deal with it as well. How much corn is grown in North America to use as ethanol - is there options to reduce that and grow wheat or other staple foods.
True, but with the food catastrophe overseas, we are likely to see some consumer panic again which leads to artificial shortages and further inflated prices for food here at home.
Russia can #### off out of Ukraine any time now please.
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Russia's well aware of the food situation too and they are basically holding all of Ukraine's exports hostage saying they are willing to allow grain out of the country IF the west reduces the sanctions on Russia. If the west keeps sanctions up then the world can just starve while Russians try to steal and sell off whatever they can.
