Calgary Real Estate predictions?

[SeeGeeWhy]

Originally Posted by Claeren

So you first admit to losing what must amount to half a years average Canadian salary (or more) on your home (and how lucky you are that is was not 2-3 times that amount) and now tell someone else to just not worry about it and do whatever they feel like because how bad can it be??

Wow.


I think in some ways this is exactly why the world has such a problem with real estate, and why it is going to keep getting worse for a while to come. An entire generation that cannot quite rationalize just how much money is changing hands. I have so many friends with this same attitude that have purchased $500,000+ homes like they were candy with zero appreciation for just how much money half a million dollars is and what basic mean revision in home prices would mean to their personal financial bottom line.



Claeren.

Well, if you want to look at it from only one side. We'll be dropping double what we lost off of our mortgage principle, so it makes sense to me.

[pepper24]

Originally Posted by Claeren

^I would sell it ASAP.

Prices should stay flat through spring (or even go up slightly) and then drop quickly again come late summer. IMO that is the best case scenario, therefore my 'ASAP' comment.

I would sell it now, price it competitively, and if you sell it (which you might not), then you can just rent someplace for a few extra months (<which is less cost than you may take if you wait til fall to list).


Claeren.

The poster was asking how many months in advance before Sep 09 should he put his house on the market. ASAP is ideal but don't think think anyone would be crazy to buy a house now and not take position until Sep 09. In a down uncertain market it's not going to happen.

If the Sep 09 possesion can be moved up then yes, ASAP!!

[pepper24]

Originally Posted by Nancy

If you are planning to stay in the market, then the timing of your sale probably isn't as critical, though the spring market is when there is the most activity, making it the easiest time to sell and buy a new place.

On the other hand, if you want to get out of the market, e.g. dumping an investment property, this may be the time to do it. I can't really read the market over the short term, I'm thinking the various stimulus programs and low interest rates will keep the market stable for a while, but one and two years from now, I believe the market will be down from where we are today. We aren't going to regain the 15% we've lost so far, not for at least a decade or more.

Well said.

If you're hunting for your first home I'd hold off or if you're trying to dump an investment property I'd sell ASAP.

If you're selling your home to buy a new home in the same market then all things being equal timing isn't that important. Things like interest rates will also be an other factor. Variable and fixed rates are super low.

[Jetsfan]

This is now happening in Calgary as well.

Lowball prices for homes are blooming this spring like cherry trees. After listing his Lake Lanier house in November, Pete Withers finally received an offer. But it was so pitifully low — $244,000 less than what he paid — that he didn’t even bother to counteroffer.

http://www.ajc.com/business/content/...ef=patrick.net

[Winsor_Pilates]

I had a guy from Leduc call me yesterday to see if we (a company in Van) could help sell his development.
I told him I wouldn't feel right about selling anyone a home that close to Edmonton.

I've also sold about 70 units in a presale development in the last week in DT Van. Real Estate markets do funny things. It was only a month or so again when nobody would touch pre-sale with a 10 foot pole.

I think Calgary will have some success stories soon and people will wonder if the bottom has come and gone.

[MickMcGeough]

Originally Posted by Ducay

For us, the main issue is mainly people telling us to wait for the market to come down more. We're looking at buying in the summer (by August) and I really don't want to rent a place just to wait and see if the market does come down a bit more.
Am I crazy for wanting to buy? Depending on what we end up with, we'd likely be in that place for 4-5 years.

It's inevitable that prices will go down more, but nobody knows how much. Inventory and sales are more in line than they have been so things should stabilize somewhat, but if you get in, do it knowing that you're going to take some kind of hit over the next couple years.

For renters I don't think it's crazy to buy right now. Just buy beneath your means and pay down the principal aggressively. If you can pay down the principal at a rate equal to the depreciation of your home, it's a wash when compared with renting. Just don't get caught paying compounding interest on the depreciation.

The best thing to do, IMO, is keep yourself locked in at a good interest rate and play wait-and-see. Most expect a pricing dip in fall, and interest should still be low by then but you never know. You can get a 5yr fixed at 3.95% right now. Get pre-approved, most places honor the rate for 90 days, and if the rate goes down in that time you get the lower rate. If/when the right deal comes you're ready.

[Qwerty]

Originally Posted by MickMcGeough

Inventory and sales are more in line than they have been so things should stabilize somewhat, but if you get in, do it knowing that you're going to take some kind of hit over the next couple years.

I think the real question is how much "hidden" inventory is out there. When walking my dog the other day I was looking at all the new houses that have been finished in the last year. Before they all had for sale signs on them and now there was only one for sale sign. Did the other houses have people in them? No. They had a little sign infront saying to call the builder if you were interested in the house. There is no point of flooding the market with 5 of the same house so the buyer knows you have excess inventory so you just list them one at a time. (I am talking about builder owned houses)

[burn_this_city]

http://www.calgaryherald.com/Busines...361/story.html

[stacey]

This is insane, does anyone know anyone (well off money wise )that rents, besides drug dealers

[burn_this_city]

I rent and could be considered fairly well off.. I wasnt in a position to buy preboom and decided against buying during the peak prices.

[smith12]

I rent and I would also consider myself fairly well off. I bought well before the boom and sold my place in anticipation of the drop. Just waiting for what will probably be the bottom to buy back in. Hoping I save myself something close to 50 - 100K.

With that money I had I've been investing in stocks and making out like a bandit. Instead of holding a depreciating condo, I am making money off it's sale.

[kevman]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

I rent and could be considered fairly well off.. I wasnt in a position to buy preboom and decided against buying during the peak prices.

+1

The "it's always better to buy crowd" has been right proper brainwashed...

[Shazam]

Seems there's some downward pressure alright. There's detached houses for sale in my community for <$400K now. I guess some people are desperate to sell.

[mykalberta]

3 units in my building have sold in the last 2 months so units are moving. No idea of the pricing.

[Claeren]

Originally Posted by stacey

This is insane, does anyone know anyone (well off money wise )that rents, besides drug dealers

And I talked about this earlier in the thread.

When everyone you know ones one house, maybe two or three, it is the best time to NOT own a house.

When no one you know wants to own real estate, any real estate, it is the best time to buy.


Last year 71%+ of Calgarians owned at least one home and 25%+ owned 2 or more homes (from what I could gather). A typical balanced market has between 61%-65% home ownership. The point being, demand had been met and the market was oversupplied. There are too few people (29% instead of 39%) to buy the houses that too many (71% instead of 61%) will want to at some point sell. That is a pretty big spread that has to be corrected over the long term, something you will see in mean reversion in home pricing in Calgary.

Most interesting will be when baby boomers all start trying to 'cash in' their retirement savings (almost all of which is home equity) in the same 10-20 year period. It will not collapse the market, but I am guessing it will likely keep taking the steam out of any potential near-future bubble (leading to long term flat pricing, and therefore renting being clearly the better option).




Claeren.

[Dan02]

Originally Posted by mykalberta

3 units in my building have sold in the last 2 months so units are moving. No idea of the pricing.

we've had 2 homes on our street go up for sale in the last month, one sold within 2 days then other just over a week. Went to a open house for one of them and they weren't very aggressively priced either.

[troutman]

I had a closing last week where there were competing offers.

[Mike Oxlong]

I had a client that lost a house on a competing offer, and I have heard from realtors I deal with that they have seen a few competing offers lately.

I am working with LOTS of first time homebuyers and there is a lot of action in the market right now. Just driving up and down the streets in my community shows there are tons of sold signs going up on the For sale signs.

I don't think we are at the beginning of another boom by any means but things are picking up for sure. It should only take the media 3-4 months to pick up on this and report it.

[Jedi Ninja]

My wife works for a homebuilder. She says the under < $400K starter market is absolutely rocking right now. I think there are a lot of people who sat out the market for the past two years who see the lower prices and low interest rates as their opportunity to buy. This could be a temporary thing, once this untapped inventory of buyers is used up, the market could resume its old course. Hard to say. Also, the low interest rates are messing with the rent-vs-buy equation.

[Holy-Smokinen]

We are going through this right now as we speak. Time was on our side and we listed our house on welist.com and got tons of response and 3 offers (a little low). So we put it on MLS and within 3 to 5 hours had two showings and the next day got 3 solid offers, it was kind of crazy, we played it safe and took the best offer, since we are building another home we didn't want to take any chances of getting stuck with 2 mortgages. Even the next day after we had C/S we had tons of phone calls for showings but they were cancelled due to the fact that our home was C/S. But as mentioned in the last few comments we noticed a lot of younger couples and first time home buyers. The price of our home was fair and the home shows well. We listed the home in Monterey Park area (NE) for around $337,900 and have C/S for $327,000. I think if we would have wanted to be more greedy we could have waited for more $$$ but with a young family I didn't want to chance it. There is a lot of people it seems out there attracted to houses listed in the $300,000 to $370,000 range.