[News] With the 144th OA pick, the Flames select LW Ethan Wyttenbach

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Who said he was a bust?
I can't find anyone that said that. What people expressed were valid concerns about his all around game, and how he creates offense. We should be able to have those types of conversations about a prospect. And why are you assuming that people that had those concerns haven't watched him play?

I am happy to stand corrected if you can point me to a number of people who called a bust. I can't find any.

We should be able to have these debates without making it seem like the opposing views are way more extreme than they actually are.

He's on the record saying he needs to be a much better 200ft player and that he needs to bulk up and improve his conditioning and that is a great thing to hear from a young player who could easily just rest on the fact he's scoring a ton. These are all reasons he chose this program and decided not to go back to the USHL.

Is it the most competitive conference? No. But it is still very good competition compared to say Junior A, the USHL or even the CHL where he'd be playing younger, smaller players by and large. What he's doing vastly against young men, not boys, is very notable at his age. If he does put the work into the rest of his game the sky is the limit with him and we should all be excited at the prospects of him being a Flame given the need for more skill players in the system.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

He's on the record saying he needs to be a much better 200ft player and that he needs to bulk up and improve his conditioning and that is a great thing to hear from a young player who could easily just rest on the fact he's scoring a ton. These are all reasons he chose this program and decided not to go back to the USHL.

Is it the most competitive conference? No. But it is still very good competition compared to say Junior A, the USHL or even the CHL where he'd be playing younger, smaller players by and large. What he's doing vastly against young men, not boys, is very notable at his age. If he does put the work into the rest of his game the sky is the limit with him and we should all be excited at the prospects of him being a Flame given the need for more skill players in the system.

Are you talking about Wyttenbach or McKenna (I was talking about McKenna)

[Jay Random]

I think I was as critical of McKenna as anyone in the early going, but the worst I said is that he wasn't likely to be drafted first overall unless he upped his game in the second half of the season. Well, he has upped his game.

It takes some real black-and-white thinking to spin ‘may not go first overall’ as ‘he's a bust’.

[Stampede2TheCup]

Originally Posted by united

Conference is the largest one. From an NHLe perspective, over a large sample, the gap between the ECAC and Big10 is nearly as large as the gap between the AJHL and WHL. So, think of it as: how good would an AJHL player have to be for you to consider them the best player in "junior" relative to the best WHL player? (Again, not quite as the gap between ECAC-Big 10 isn't quite as large as AJHL-WHL but closest layman's comparable.)
…

Thank for the perspective and lots of great info in your post.

I think there is a more straightforward way to illustrate the difference between Big 10 and ECAC scoring using NLHe.

For 2025 I have 0.31 for Big Ten and 0.23 for ECAC. That gives us a ratio of 1.35. I think that ratio shows just how big of a difference there is between the conferences.

I think we will need to be careful with NHLe right now and a few years out because of how many leagues the NCAA changes have touched. The situation for these leagues will still evolve and settle in, and the data trends lag behind. It seems like an interesting project, maybe I should have a look at it.

[SuperMatt18]

I like to look at his play vs top 20 ranked teams (based on where they ranked when they played them)

Boston College: 0-1-1
Maine: 1-0-1
Maine: 1-0-1
Boston University: 1-1-2
Harvard: 2-0-2
Dartmouth: 0-0-0
Cornell: 1-0-0
UConn: 0-1-1
Cornell: 0-0-0

So he's still point per game and only 2 games without a point when playing the top teams in the country too.

[Robbob]

I wonder if with the new NCAA rules the gap between the the divisions will narrow.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by united

Conference is the largest one. From an NHLe perspective, over a large sample, the gap between the ECAC and Big10 is nearly as large as the gap between the AJHL and WHL. So, think of it as: how good would an AJHL player have to be for you to consider them the best player in "junior" relative to the best WHL player? (Again, not quite as the gap between ECAC-Big 10 isn't quite as large as AJHL-WHL but closest layman's comparable.)

There are some nuances, one being AJHL teams don't play games versus WHL teams whereas in the NCAA there are inter-conference games. However, as other posters have noted, this can be hard to quantify in very small samples given the gulf in quality of competition even intra-conference. Also, the recent changes in eligibility and dynamics impacting all leagues.

A problem in messaging is models like Byron Bader's just use an equivalency for the NCAA as a whole rather than granular conference-level equivalencies. I believe Bader is aware and plans to roll out a revised version at some point, but for now a reader has to be diligent in keeping the above in mind for players in the Big 10 (underrated) and ECAC (overrated) if digesting his model's outputs at face value. Are the differences huge? No. But they are material and real.

Probably sounds negative but not the intent at all! I'm pumped about the pick and his future. Accuracy and expectation is the intent. Both can be true:

- Lots of good players come out of the ECAC and the AJHL! All-Stars even. What is important is scoring at a young age, which he is. Very young, at that. Great sign and high probability NHLer at this stage and regardless of how his career goes, incredible value for a 5th-rounder. (As an aside, this is why anyone with experience with NHLe models saw nearly zero chance of Spencer Foo becoming an NHL player despite the hype. Waiting until 22 to hit point-per-game in a weak conference = minor leaguer.)
- NHLe models that don't use conference-specific equivalencies overrate ECAC production to a degree, so expectation should be tempered a little. Again if relying on those outputs exclusively.

This would matter if it was about who's going to be the best NHL prospect.

The WHL probably has a 30 time higher NHLe than the USports, but any decent USport team would beat a WHL team. A Big 10 team hasn't won the frozen four since 2007. They have the best NHL prospects, but they aren't the best teams.