Sam Bennett Value: Have the Flames held on TOO long? OR is he awesome?

[Rick M.]

Originally Posted by Dajazz

I see Bennett would be better off with a more fast paced player on his line. He is fast, aggressive and appears to thrive on pace and intuition. I'd rather break up Monahan & Gaudreau as they have proven to be very successful on their own (that people on this forum think Monahan is a passenger is outrageous....).

Tkachuk and Monahan can play a strong cycle game with strong net presence as well as handle a little tougher assignments. JG & Bennett will complement each other with speed.

At least have a look in training camp.

Gaudreau - Bennett
Tkachuk - Monahan
Frolik - Backlund

If Tkachuk is to play with Monahan, they need a fast winger with them.

[red sky]

Gaudreau and Monahan should not be separated.

I agree we need another center to move Backlund and Frolik pair down to third line.

I think Jankowski might need to shift to the wing in that scenario as he should not be centering the third line.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by red sky

Gaudreau and Monahan should not be separated.

I agree we need another center to move Backlund and Frolik pair down to third line.

I think Jankowski might need to shift to the wing in that scenario as he should not be centering the third line.

In the words of Sutter, who was the third line?
The correct answer is there is no 'third line'. Hasn't been for a long time. Backlund/Frolik will always draw the toughest assignments/zone starts. Always.
Flames need two other lines that can consistently score, and hope that the Backlund/Frolik combo just had a down year last year, and can return to previous scoring levels.

[Royle9]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

In the words of Sutter, who was the third line?
The correct answer is there is no 'third line'. Hasn't been for a long time. Backlund/Frolik will always draw the toughest assignments/zone starts. Always.
Flames need two other lines that can consistently score, and hope that the Backlund/Frolik combo just had a down year last year, and can return to previous scoring levels.

I agree, but the formality "on paper" is coaches still document a numbered 4 lines:

Currently I think these are your locks going into training camp:
Everyone else is playing to fit on one of these lines, my hopes is that we can round out 2 good scoring lines and let the 3rd like you said take ALL the hard matchups every night as they play the best defensive structured style.

Scoring 1:

Johnny - Mony - _______

Scoring 2:

Tkachuk - _______ - _______

Shutdown 3:

______ - Backlund - Frolik

4th line Gear grinders:

______ - Shore - Lazar

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Royle9

I agree, but the formality "on paper" is coaches still document a numbered 4 lines:

Currently I think these are your locks going into training camp:
Everyone else is playing to fit on one of these lines, my hopes is that we can round out 2 good scoring lines and let the 3rd like you said take ALL the hard matchups every night as they play the best defensive structured style.

Scoring 1:

Johnny - Mony - _______

Scoring 2:

Tkachuk - _______ - _______

Shutdown 3:

______ - Backlund - Frolik

4th line Gear grinders:

______ - Shore - Lazar

We agree.
I wonder what a Bennett Jankowski Tkachuk line would look like?
My concern with giving Bennett another shot at C to start the season is that he maybe gets off to a 3 point in 20 games (or whatever it was) start like last year. Flames cannot afford to stumble out of the gate next year.

[Flashpoint]

The Athletic has a really great article on Bennett's trade value as a top 5 pick, now 5 years out from his draft. They compare him to similar players who were traded, and pare the list down to guys who are similar - good rookie season, but fail to develop beyond there, and seem to be "stuck".

Athletic Link (Paywall)

For comparable forwards:

Forwards

Nino Niederreiter
Nail Yakupov
James van Riemsdyk
Ryan Strome

Kent Wilson's conclusion is that he could be Nail Yakupov, or he could be James van Riemsdyk (who turned into a good 25 goal 55 point player a couple years later).

Clearly, it's difficult to nail down a true value for Bennett here. Yakupov, despite being a first overall pick and an NHL player, fetched far less than did Reinhart, a fourth overall pick who never found his way out of the AHL. Perhaps the moral here is “make a trade with Edmonton if possible.” Oh, and don't trade for a defensive defenceman.

In reality, it will depend on a variety of factors including the perception of the player around the league and the needs of the potential trading partners. What this is exercise illustrates, however, is the potential pitfalls facing the Flames either way. Is Bennett like Niederreiter or van Riemsdyk? A guy who will figure it out in a year or two and become a solid top-six contributor? If so, they could lose almost any trade they make.

Its a neat article. I fall on the side of "hold" when it comes to Bennett after reading it - the guy may be 5 years from his draft, but clearly there is upside to be had. Yakupov is the cautionary tail of holding onto a guy for too long, but the big difference I see there is Yakupov's "give a s---" meter is a lot lower than Bennett's.

My other takeaway is that any concept of Bennett as our top line PPG center is dead and gone. Secondary scoring is about as good as it's ever going to get at this point. That's a bit of a hard pill to swallow as a long term Flames fan, given that he's our highest ever draft pick - but I still say keep the asset provides more potential upside than a trade at this point. Even for a first rounder.

(Off Topic) I used to be pretty anti-paywall BTW - but I really can't say enough about how amazing the Athletic is.

[RoughRiderRowdy]

Originally Posted by Royle9

I agree, but the formality "on paper" is coaches still document a numbered 4 lines:

Currently I think these are your locks going into training camp:
Everyone else is playing to fit on one of these lines, my hopes is that we can round out 2 good scoring lines and let the 3rd like you said take ALL the hard matchups every night as they play the best defensive structured style.

Scoring 1:

Johnny - Mony - _______

Scoring 2:

Tkachuk - _______ - _______

Shutdown 3:

______ - Backlund - Frolik

4th line Gear grinders:

______ - Shore - Lazar

This x2

[pepper24]

Originally Posted by Flashpoint

The Athletic has a really great article on Bennett's trade value as a top 5 pick, now 5 years out from his draft. They compare him to similar players who were traded, and pare the list down to guys who are similar - good rookie season, but fail to develop beyond there, and seem to be "stuck".

Athletic Link (Paywall)

For comparable forwards:



Kent Wilson's conclusion is that he could be Nail Yakupov, or he could be James van Riemsdyk (who turned into a good 25 goal 55 point player a couple years later).



Its a neat article. I fall on the side of "hold" when it comes to Bennett after reading it - the guy may be 5 years from his draft, but clearly there is upside to be had. Yakupov is the cautionary tail of holding onto a guy for too long, but the big difference I see there is Yakupov's "give a s---" meter is a lot lower than Bennett's.

My other takeaway is that any concept of Bennett as our top line PPG center is dead and gone. Secondary scoring is about as good as it's ever going to get at this point. That's a bit of a hard pill to swallow as a long term Flames fan, given that he's our highest ever draft pick - but I still say keep the asset provides more potential upside than a trade at this point. Even for a first rounder.

(Off Topic) I used to be pretty anti-paywall BTW - but I really can't say enough about how amazing the Athletic is.

Yakupov's issue more than attitude is he isn't good enough. He was a good 18 year old and regressed or didn't improve from there. Bennett is in the same boat. Bottom 6 forwards for now until they bottom out and play overseas.

If anyone offers Trevliving a first rounder especially when you don't have one this year he takes it. Unfortunate part is that no GM probably offers that.

Bennett is a good addition in a trade with young d prospect to improve our top 6 forwards. Flames need more goals and guys like Mangi, Dube etc will be able to replace Bennett's 3rd line minutes.

[The Boy Wonder]

Originally Posted by pepper24

Yakupov's issue more than attitude is he isn't good enough. He was a good 18 year old and regressed or didn't improve from there. Bennett is in the same boat. Bottom 6 forwards for now until they bottom out and play overseas.

If anyone offers Trevliving a first rounder especially when you don't have one this year he takes it. Unfortunate part is that no GM probably offers that.

Bennett is a good addition in a trade with young d prospect to improve our top 6 forwards. Flames need more goals and guys like Mangi, Dube etc will be able to replace Bennett's 3rd line minutes.

I really think you haven't watched Bennett play if you think he isn't even rosterable for this team. He is, at this point an average middle six forward.

But comparing Bennett in any way to Yakupov other than maybe they were both rushed in too early seems like you haven't watched Bennett play.

Yakupov didn't backcheck, wasn't asked to play defensively responsible hockey and didn't try.

Bennett, tries hard, often too hard, to make things happen both defensively and offensively... His lack of success comes in spite of giving 110% every shift, Yakupov's lack of success came from giving ~45%

[blankall]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

In the words of Sutter, who was the third line?
The correct answer is there is no 'third line'. Hasn't been for a long time. Backlund/Frolik will always draw the toughest assignments/zone starts. Always.
Flames need two other lines that can consistently score, and hope that the Backlund/Frolik combo just had a down year last year, and can return to previous scoring levels.

Backlund's numbers were in line with his career production...Frolik on the other hand really had an off year.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by The Boy Wonder

I really think you haven't watched Bennett play if you think he isn't even rosterable for this team. He is, at this point an average middle six forward.

But comparing Bennett in any way to Yakupov other than maybe they were both rushed in too early seems like you haven't watched Bennett play.

Yakupov didn't backcheck, wasn't asked to play defensively responsible hockey and didn't try.

Bennett, tries hard, often too hard, to make things happen both defensively and offensively... His lack of success comes in spite of giving 110% every shift, Yakupov's lack of success came from giving ~45%

Is he even that?

I mean his career average is a 30 point player. I have to think average guys are at least 40+.

[ForeverFlameFan]

This is Bennett's last year to prove us wrong that he is really better than he actually is. If there is little to no progress done this year, I am sure we are going to trade his RFA rights to a team that wants to overpay and take a chance on him. I am sure Bennett would excel on a team that will give him top 6 minutes.

[The Boy Wonder]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Is he even that?

I mean his career average is a 30 point player. I have to think average guys are at least 40+.

Find me more than three teams in the NHL where the middle 6 forwards average over 40 points...

I guess next year we will see if a) Peters deploys him any differently than GG, and b) whether he can take a step forward

[Kovaz]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Is he even that?

I mean his career average is a 30 point player. I have to think average guys are at least 40+.

151 forwards scored 40+ last year, so the average team has about 5 40+ point forwards. So 40+ is a low-end top-6 player, 30 is pretty solidly in 3rd line territory. Although there's a ton of overlap between "top-6", "middle-6", and "3rd line". And then you get into all the other attributes beyond points a player can bring.

To me, ranking by points gets a lot less useful when you're looking at the bottom half of the roster. Obviously you need points out of your top line, but it gets muddier when you move down the lineup. Is Versteeg a better 3rd line option than Bennett because he scored more powerplay points? Ranking by points you'd pretty clearly have Versteeg > Bennett, but IMO Versteeg was our worst player at 5v5 when he was healthy this year.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Why are we comparing Bennett to Yakupov here? I think the comparison is WAY off, unless you are simply stat watching. At least state in any comparison that you are talking about OFFENCE ONLY.

Bennett has made huge strides in the defensive and neutral zones. I think - and especially for his age - that he is a fairly reliable defensive player. He is also by far the most effective player along the boards for the Flames (and I am not forgetting Tkachuk here, who is also really damn strong there).

If Yak wasn't scoring, he wasn't contributing. Yakupov never grew his game. Maybe it was coaching. Maybe it was something else. Yakupov also seemed to have a lot of effort and hustle to his game, but he has never seemed able to help his team other than scoring. I argue that Bennett has grown other areas of his game, and Yakupov was never able to.

This is why I think that once things come together for him, he will be an exceptional piece for the Flames, and will help this team win.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by The Boy Wonder

Find me more than three teams in the NHL where the middle 6 forwards average over 40 points...

I guess next year we will see if a) Peters deploys him any differently than GG, and b) whether he can take a step forward

I guess it depends on what a "middle" forward means.

this past season 30 pts tied you for 210th in NHL scoring among F. Thats solidly an average 3rd liner I suppose. Bennett was 235th among forwards this last year with 26. Tied for 300th overall.

If thats what Bennett is...so be it, but if you can use him in a deal to upgrade you do so in a heartbeat, because for this Flames team to be better, he (or someone who replaces him) must be much much more productive than that.

[TheIronMaiden]

Taking a glance at the list of players taken after Bennett in 2014 there are a few that sting.

4. Sam Bennett 42-47- 89

8. William Nylander 48- 87-135
9. Nikolaj Ehlers 69-93- 162
15. Dylan Larkin 56- 84- 140
25. David Pastrnak 94- 109- 203

That said, compared to the other 22 players taken after him in the first round Bennett has developed better point totals. In the context of his draft Bennett was a fine pick to this point. He may still develop into one of the best from this draft but so far he is falling short of his top four selection pedigree. However, he is still an NHL player by any standard and at 22 next season he has time left for development.

[Monahammer]

I really like that layout of the team posted above. I think it also does a lot to counter the notion that this team is just a top-6 Right winger away- I think that's inadequate. We need another player that can drive a line on their own, and the most sense would be to target another scoring centre (i.e. ROR or someone similar).
Obviously the best option out there would be to get said player for free come July 1st, but Tavares is a long shot at best.

Brodie+ for ROR is something that I could stomach, but the + might have to be good (especially now that Dahlin looks likely for the sabres).

Does anyone think we could add to Hamilton and try and get Seguin out of Dallas? I'm not sure it's really realistic to even consider, but I would make an add to Hamilton for that.

Hamilton+Jankowski+ 1st 2019 for Seguin?

[Bingo]

I'm still careful with Bennett, as I think he pans out as a second line player with jam and an important piece going forward.

His on ice shooting percentage of 5.81% (all situations) is pretty unfathomable and certainly bound to bounce back when you consider some of the tools he has.

He was 8.03% the previous season for example.

[TheIronMaiden]

Personally Bennett will be the story I look forward to the most next season. I am really pulling for the guy, and I would love to see him have a break out season to shut some critics up.