03-15-2020, 07:28 PM
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#601
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Calgary
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I clearly remember one morning in February 2008 waking up with a weird feeling about markets being crazy. Without questioning myself, I sold everything and sat all cash until 2010 when started buying again. I did not have this gut feeling back a year ago and now I'm paying the price. Probably, time to sell out what I can salvage, count the losses and lick the wounds...
__________________
"An idea is always a generalization, and generalization is a property of thinking. To generalize means to think." Georg Hegel
To generalize is to be an idiot. William Blake
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03-15-2020, 07:29 PM
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#602
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Somewhere down the crazy river.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainYooh
I clearly remember one morning in February 2008 waking up with a weird feeling about markets being crazy. Without questioning myself, I sold everything and sat all cash until 2010 when started buying again. I did not have this gut feeling back a year ago and now I'm paying the price. Probably, time to sell out what I can salvage, count the losses and lick the wounds...
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Would this not be a better opportunity to hold on to those investments, and buy in?
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03-15-2020, 07:37 PM
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#603
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wormius
Would this not be a better opportunity to hold on to those investments, and buy in?
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You can only buy in low, if you have cash to buy in low. I was 90% stocks and a few bonds. I didn't do a hypothetical model of what would have happened to my portfolio value if I didn't sell and held on.
Buying on dips requires tremendous amount of guts and time horizon to recover. I am not a young man anymore. 2008 could have been much worse than it was. Roughly comparing 2008 with 1930 crashes: people with $100 value ended up at $50 immediately after 2008 vs. $25 in 1930. If my retirement portfolio goes down 75%, this would be devastating to us.
__________________
"An idea is always a generalization, and generalization is a property of thinking. To generalize means to think." Georg Hegel
To generalize is to be an idiot. William Blake
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03-15-2020, 07:53 PM
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#604
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Crash and Bang Winger
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainYooh
You can only buy in low, if you have cash to buy in low. I was 90% stocks and a few bonds. I didn't do a hypothetical model of what would have happened to my portfolio value if I didn't sell and held on.
Buying on dips requires tremendous amount of guts and time horizon to recover. I am not a young man anymore. 2008 could have been much worse than it was. Roughly comparing 2008 with 1930 crashes: people with $100 value ended up at $50 immediately after 2008 vs. $25 in 1930. If my retirement portfolio goes down 75%, this would be devastating to us.
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Maybe I'm missing the point - but wouldn't this only really be devastating if you needed to pull from your retirement portfolio in the next year or couple of years?
Or are you retired and currently drawing on it - which raises an interesting point because I had never really thought about how to protect myself from that in the future when I am hopefully one day retired
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03-15-2020, 07:54 PM
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#605
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Franchise Player
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There will come a time when people may have to sell just to have some money to live on. The scariest thing is when I hear people say their investments are just money they don't have to think about for 30 years. You never know when things change like this and you actually need to live on that money. I hope it's not like that and we get some better news before it's too late.
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03-15-2020, 08:05 PM
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#606
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Calgary, Alberta
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OMG!WTF!
There will come a time when people may have to sell just to have some money to live on. The scariest thing is when I hear people say their investments are just money they don't have to think about for 30 years. You never know when things change like this and you actually need to live on that money. I hope it's not like that and we get some better news before it's too late.
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I think a lot of that sentiment comes along with buying the index because it's cheaper. The downside is that you get full...well, downside. There's a segment of investors for who that market risk is just plain too much risk.
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03-15-2020, 09:34 PM
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#607
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Franchise Player
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Duh! just buy Costco and Loblaws stock....
__________________
Peter12 "I'm no Trump fan but he is smarter than most if not everyone in this thread.
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03-15-2020, 10:09 PM
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#608
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Somewhere down the crazy river.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainYooh
You can only buy in low, if you have cash to buy in low. I was 90% stocks and a few bonds. I didn't do a hypothetical model of what would have happened to my portfolio value if I didn't sell and held on.
Buying on dips requires tremendous amount of guts and time horizon to recover. I am not a young man anymore. 2008 could have been much worse than it was. Roughly comparing 2008 with 1930 crashes: people with $100 value ended up at $50 immediately after 2008 vs. $25 in 1930. If my retirement portfolio goes down 75%, this would be devastating to us.
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Ah. Okay I see where you are now. I still have 20ish years to go. While things look crappy and nauseating at the moment, I feel some confidence they will improve once this Coronavirus dip moves past. Although it does make me question earlier retirement sometimes.
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The Following User Says Thank You to Wormius For This Useful Post:
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03-15-2020, 10:24 PM
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#609
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Calgary
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Just close the markets for two weeks. Such uncharted territory for the markets and the world. Give the world governments and the IMF a chance to come up with some concrete plans for dealing with the unknowns first.
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03-15-2020, 11:53 PM
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#610
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: east van
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bob-loblaw
Just close the markets for two weeks. Such uncharted territory for the markets and the world. Give the world governments and the IMF a chance to come up with some concrete plans for dealing with the unknowns first.
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Pension funds have to be able to sell stock in order to pay their pensions out, you cant just stop pension payments for 2 weeks
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The Following User Says Thank You to afc wimbledon For This Useful Post:
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03-16-2020, 06:55 AM
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#611
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First Line Centre
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For my own sanity, I am not checking my stocks today and possibly for the rest of the week. I know they will all be down so there's really no point. If you have investments in the market right now I would encourage you to do the same
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03-16-2020, 07:09 AM
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#612
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Franchise Player
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I hope cause it's a fast decline it will be a shorter recession and a faster rebound. It took a year to hit bottom in 2008. It felt like a thousand cuts then. This feels like a decapitation.
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03-16-2020, 08:35 AM
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#613
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OMG!WTF!
I hope cause it's a fast decline it will be a shorter recession and a faster rebound. It took a year to hit bottom in 2008. It felt like a thousand cuts then. This feels like a decapitation.
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RBC is predicting a major recession lasting through the summer and fall. This will not be short. Recovery from a truly global hit will take a couple of years, at least.
I am done. Sold everything this morning. F... it.
__________________
"An idea is always a generalization, and generalization is a property of thinking. To generalize means to think." Georg Hegel
To generalize is to be an idiot. William Blake
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03-16-2020, 10:37 AM
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#614
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Loves Teh Chat!
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Leaving it all in the market and continuing my bi-weekly contributions but also upping cash savings and emergency fund with all new money rather than buying more. This is ####ing crazy.
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03-16-2020, 11:37 AM
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#615
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First Line Centre
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Torture
Leaving it all in the market and continuing my bi-weekly contributions but also upping cash savings and emergency fund with all new money rather than buying more. This is ####ing crazy.
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I'm mostly the same as you, not touching anything, and this is probably the best time to continue to make contributions if you can. It will take a long time to recover but I expect as soon as there is any good news things will take a sharp jump up. Selling right now to me just looks like a terrible idea. I would also say I can see why people may want to sell off and I could be completely wrong and lose it all for all I know.
Last edited by RogerWilco; 03-16-2020 at 11:55 AM.
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03-16-2020, 01:35 PM
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#616
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Maryland State House, Annapolis
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Dow plunging as Trump starts his presser, might get to the 13% circuit breaker right before close.
__________________
"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
Last edited by Senator Clay Davis; 03-16-2020 at 01:43 PM.
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03-16-2020, 02:06 PM
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#617
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Seattle, WA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis
Dow plunging as Trump starts his presser, might get to the 13% circuit breaker right before close.
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S&P 500 just broke the support level.
I'll still make my monthly purchases, but am going to keep half as cash until this thing sorts itself out.
__________________
It's only game. Why you heff to be mad?
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03-16-2020, 02:12 PM
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#618
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Calgary
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ONE F..N' BAT EATEN BY ONE F...N' IDIOT MAKES THE WORLD COLLAPSE... Can it be real??? I can't stop thinking about this.
__________________
"An idea is always a generalization, and generalization is a property of thinking. To generalize means to think." Georg Hegel
To generalize is to be an idiot. William Blake
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03-16-2020, 02:21 PM
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#619
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainYooh
ONE F..N' BAT EATEN BY ONE F...N' IDIOT MAKES THE WORLD COLLAPSE... Can it be real??? I can't stop thinking about this.
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One guy in Sarajevo shoots one guy and his wife in a car, and you kill the Old World.
One guy with a rifle shoots a president (or three guys) again in a car.
History turns on dimes.
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03-16-2020, 03:49 PM
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#620
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#1 Goaltender
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainYooh
ONE F..N' BAT EATEN BY ONE F...N' IDIOT MAKES THE WORLD COLLAPSE... Can it be real??? I can't stop thinking about this.
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Not really an isolated event. Look at the origins of most viruses.
Bird Flu - Chickens
H1N1 - Pigs
Mad Cow - Cattle
HIV / AIDS - Apes & Monkeys
If that one human (s) decided not to consume meat, would these viruses ever exist in humans at all?
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