Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Lol I'm trying to figure out what this means

Richardson was garth refrigerator this season, for example.

[saillias]

Originally Posted by the-rasta-masta

I have it on good authority that Gaudreau's camp has countered today, however at closer to $11MM/year. That's all I will say.

wasn't the line last week that they would make the money work and the problem was that Gaudreau camp simply wasn't responding at all? if this is true and they've counter-offered, no excuse not to get it done

[Jordan!]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I personally don’t believe Gaudreau is worth $11MM. There is however some benefit or signing a superstar for 8 years in terms of the message to the fans. Especially when you’re trying to get a new arena built.

I guarantee you will see a team rebuild before any kind of Arena agreement is reached. It's just what these owners do.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Icon

If it's 11MM AAV for a few years, sure.

I don't want to have him getting 11MM at 36yrs old... if he was a few years younger then fine.

Alterative fallout worse or not, too much money & term for me.

Well, he won't be getting that in salary then. He will make closer to 15 in the first few years. And with a lower cash salary, he can probably be moved for a final year, or bought out, or LTIRed. and 11M under the cap in 8 years isn't the same as 11 now.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by blankall

And the line between 2nd round knockout and championship is extremely thin. Like 1-2 good moves, could bring in the missing pieces the Flames were missing. The championship teams always have a bunch of players they've drafted well, plus fill out the roster with great moves. The odds of all that coming together from a rebuild are very slim, hence why most teams end up spinning their wheels.

I don't think the Flames were missing anything this season. Their best players simply didn't play their best when it counted. Another top forward or defenseman wasn't going to overcome Markstrom's play against the Oilers. It's all about timing IMO. The Avalanche had underachieved in the 2nd round for a few years but this season they finally put it together. Tampa is maybe the only team right now that is seasoned and good enough to be able to just turn things on in the playoffs. The rest have to hope they can play at their peak at the right time.

[Flamesfan05]

It’s really not how much you have to pay Johnny

It’s the impact of signing vs not signing him

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Well, he won't be getting that in salary then. He will make closer to 15 in the first few years. And with a lower cash salary, he can probably be moved for a final year, or bought out, or LTIRed. and 11M under the cap in 8 years isn't the same as 11 now.

he could develop a severe rash to his hockey equipment at age 35 after having worn the equipment for 30 years

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by saillias

wasn't the line last week that they would make the money work and the problem was that Gaudreau camp simply wasn't responding at all? if this is true and they've counter-offered, no excuse not to get it done

Not really. They said they were flexible, or at least Friedman said they were.

The reported counteroffer makes a deal realistic though. It will begin with a 10.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by blankall

$10.5-11 should be something the Flames are all over. We're in a very rare scenario where the cap is stable, and inflation, generally is increasing. In 3 years when everyone is paying 30% more for tickets, hot dogs, beers, jerseys, and TV subscriptions and post-covid dampening, revenues will also increase and so will the cap. $10 million will be the new $7 million.

3/4s of the US teams are going to lose their local TV deals in 2-3 years when Sinclair bankrupts their sports division. Cap could very well go down.

[manwiches]

Originally Posted by the-rasta-masta

I have it on good authority that Gaudreau's camp has countered today, however at closer to $11MM/year. That's all I will say.

Rasta's DMs blowing up currently.

[Draug]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Letang's contract is very much an outlier. Most players, even good ones, don't get to 35. And when they do, they sign for <$3M or so. There's no one likely giving out a 5 year deal to Gaudreau at age 35. And if he's one of those exceptions, then he's just as likely to get a similar deal after only one more year of 10.5.

I'd bet on Gaudreau being better than the vast majority of 35 year old players when he's 35. If I'd make the bet, it seems reasonable to think he would too.

And, $3M now for the average signing 35 yr old could easily be $4M in 8 years with how the cap will go. Then another $1M cause he's better than the average 35/36 year old peer? I think absolutely he can get a Letang type deal 8 years from now. I bet they become more common too, between now and then.

[Flamesfan05]

In 8 yrs , 11M is like 7M today

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

3/4s of the US teams are going to lose their local TV deals in 2-3 years when Sinclair bankrupts their sports division. Cap could very well go down.

Idon’t believe the current local TV deals are all that lucrative. And couldn’t they be replaced?

[devo22]

if you have to pay Gaudreau $1m per year more to keep him, you do it. You can find and save that million somewhere else, but you need to retain your best players if possible.

I'd happily do something like 8 x $10.5m.

[miraisoup]

My poor little Flames heart. Can we get excited? Is Rasta legit?

[Moneyhands23]

Originally Posted by devo22

if you have to pay Gaudreau $1m per year more to keep him, you do it. You can find and save that million somewhere else, but you need to retain your best players if possible.

I'd happily do something like 8 x $10.5m.

Yup. I hope it's a meet in the middle thing

[yourbestfriend]

Originally Posted by the-rasta-masta

Could be a shorter term too. Giving Johnny opportunity to show loyalty, with potential to sign a higher deal in a few years when cap goes up, with options at that time to head home or towards a place closer to winning if Flames aren't in the contending mix. Kind of makes sense for all sides actually.

That would be the high risk option. They would be banking on the fact that both the cap will go up significantly (probable) and that Johnny can continue playing at a very high level - enough to warrant a material raise over what is being offered right now.
An 8year deal now gets him to $75-$80M guaranteed. A shorter deal, say 4 years, gets him to $40 - $45M. That's a lot of money left on the table. I personally don't think it's worth the risk unless he's able to sign for $13M+ AAV afterwards.

Will be interesting to see what happens. I'd be pretty surprised if he took a shorter deal.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by manwiches

Rasta's DMs blowing up currently.

You should see his Only Fans

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Idon’t believe the current local TV deals are all that lucrative. And couldn’t they be replaced?

Lots are in the 50-100+ million range and anyone else with RSNs is trying to exit the business and some of them are the only reason the American teams are making any money. There is no way to replicate the deals that relied on cable bundling of having millions of people paying $5/month for thousands to watch the games. Some of the american teams have huge tv territories that are very lucrative in the cable bundle model, but have no future in getting money from the few people who actually watch the games.

[Vinny01]

Flames got Johnny at 6.75 when they had all the leverage but Johnny now has them in a spot where the leverage is all his and his agent isn’t afraid to drag things out.

If the rumor that a counter offer was received that is a incredible news as he has made his mind up that he is willing to stay. $11M for Johnny when he plays like he did last year? All day long no problem. Johnny has been a consistent first line player but really only 2 of the years on his last deal were when it could be argued he was one of the very best players in the game.

He has the team by the balls. They either negotiate something in the high 10’s, take the 11 counter or risk losing him. Unless the flames have a backup plan then they need to proceed with getting Johnny signed. Trelviing to the fans/media is stating all they are focused on is keeping their top players.